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Reflections on Sean Carroll’s The Big Picture

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Sean Carroll is a theoretical physicist at the California Institute of Technologies. He has also dedicated a considerable amount of time to science popularization through his books, such as From Eternity to Here and The Particle at the End of the Universe, and debates, for example with theologian William Lane Craig.

Carroll’s latest book is The Big Picture: On the Origins of Life, Meaning and the Universe Itself. Published by Dutton, the book came out in May 2016. With that title, it’s right to assume that Carroll covered many topics in the book. A look at the table of contents finds six parts, with topics such as “The Funda­mental Nature of Real­ity,” “Interpreting Quan­­tum Mechanics,” and “The Origin and Pur­pose of Life.” But in short, the book is about poetic naturalism.

Naturalism asserts, as Carroll puts it, that “there is only one world, the natural world, exhibiting patterns we call “the laws of nature,” which are “discoverable by the methods of science and empirical investigation.” He makes it crystal clear that within naturalism there is no space for the supernatural: “There is no separate realm of the supernatural, spiritual, or divine; nor is there any cosmic teleology or transcendent purpose inherent in the nature of the universe or in human life.”

And what is the natural world made of? Our deepest understanding of reality, or in other words, our fundamental ontology is The Core Theory, a better term coined by physicist Nobel Prize winner Frank Wilczek for the Standard Model of particle physics. “It’s the quantum field theory of the quarks, electrons, neutrinos, all the families of fermions, electromagnetism, gravity, the nuclear forces, and the Higgs,” Carroll explains. So on our most fundamental level we have a sparse ontology, containing several different entities.

The Core Theory also 
tells us something very im­portant about the world: there is no such thing as astrology and life after death. Carroll had written about this on his blog,1 and he repeats this spectacular argument again in the book. Using our fundamental ontology, the world, including our bodies, is made of particles interacting according to equations of the Core Theory. The important point here is what kind of particles is the soul made of? If souls are made of the same ordinary particles as human bodies, there is no afterlife. On the other hand, if they are made of a different particle, this certainly would require a new physics to describe the interaction between our bodies—collections of ordinary Core Theory particles—with the soul. But every experiment ever performed says the Core Theory provides the correct description of how its particles behave at everyday energies. We know it’s not a complete description of everything that exists in the world—for example, dark matter is not included in it—but it describes everything related to human beings. If it exists, an immaterial soul that interacts with our bodies would prove the Core Theory is not right at everyday energies; the Core Theory would then need to be modified to include how its particles interact with the soul. One cannot believe in the existence of the soul and also believe the Core Theory is the correct description of how particles behave at everyday energies. “There is no life after death. We each have a finite time as living creatures, and when it’s over, it’s over.” Carroll blows the hope for the soul away.

The same line of reasoning can be applied to astrology. The Core Theory particles make human beings interact with a few forces of nature: gravity, electromagnetism, and strong and weak nuclear forces. But the nuclear forces do not reach macroscopic scales, and gravity is too weak—gravitational force from other planets might be equivalent or even weaker than that of a person nearby. We’re left with electromagnetism, but it’s not difficult to think that any electromagnetic signal coming from other planets will be interfered with signals originated here on Earth.

This brings another important question: What about things that are not part of the Core Theory? Are they just illusions? No! These can be useful ideas to describe real phenomena that manifest at higher scales. Temperature and entropy, for example, are not part of our fundamental ontology, but they’re real; they are emergent phenomena.

This is why Carroll is a poetic naturalist, and he does a great job throughout the book of differentiating fundamental from emergent phenomena, highlighting that both are real. But poetic naturalism is bigger than that; it has space from moral values, even if they’re part of our deepest ontology and not emergent. For Carroll (although Sam Harris certainly disagrees2), morality is not something out there to be found and cannot be discovered by science, but it is not less important. Poetic naturalism embraces all these “views” together. In Carroll’s own words:

Within poetic naturalism we can distinguish among three different kinds of stories we can tell about the world. There is the deepest, most fundamental description we can imagine—the whole universe, exactly described in every microscopic detail. Modern science doesn’t know what that description actually is right now, but we presume that there at least is such an underlying reality. Then there are “emergent” or “effective” descriptions, valid within some limited domain. That’s where we talk about ships and people, macroscopic collections of stuff that we group into individual entities as part of this higher level vocabulary. Finally, there are values: concepts of right and wrong, purpose and duty, or beauty and ugliness. Unlike higher level scientific descriptions, these are not determined by the scientific goal of fitting the data. We have other goals: we want to be good people, get along with others, and find meaning in our lives. Figuring out the best way to talk about the world is an important part of working toward those goals.

To conclude, it’s a great book, covering a wide range of interesting topics. In fact, it’s impossible to fairly account for all the good stuff in the book in a short review like this. Go read it!



Notes

  1. http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2011/05/23/physics-and-the-immortality-of-the-soul/
  2. http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2010/03/29/sam-harris-responds/

CSICon Las Vegas: “Go for the speakers, return for the people”

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Have you heard the saying, “Go for the speakers, return for the people”? That was CSICon this year. Held October 27–30, 2016, at the Excalibur Casino in Las Vegas the lineup of speakers was some of the stars of science and skepticism, making this a must-do conference. CFI Communications Director Paul Fidalgo kept up a running blog of all the lectures, and I highly encourage anyone interested in that aspect to read his thoughts here. Conference organizer Barry Karr has assured me that videos of the lectures will be available by January 2017. This link http://www.reasonabletalk.tv/ is where they will eventually reside; you can follow @SkeptInquiry on Twitter or the Skeptical Inquirer Facebook page to receive notifications as they are released.

Traditionally, CSICon conferences have moved locations: New Orleans in 2011, Nashville in 2012, and Tacoma, Washington, in 2013. There is no word yet on whether CSI will continue this practice. CSICOP conferences have existed since 1983 and have been held worldwide, sometimes co-hosted with other organizations. For many years, the JREF Amaz!ng Meeting (TAM) met in Las Vegas in July, maxing out with an attendance of 1,500 people. In 2015, James Randi announced his retirement from JREF and, apparently, the end of TAMs, but not the end to Randi’s energy and lecture tours. I’ve been told that the JREF will continue, in some form. But a future TAM is unlikely.

The speculation before this year’s event was “could CSICon be the next TAM?” I know that CFI wasn’t comfortable with this question, as they have been running events long before the JREF, and CSICOP was the beginning of the modern organized skeptic movement. CSICOP was the inspiration and motivation for so many organizations to form, so I understand that they felt like they had nothing to prove. Yet they have not had the attendance numbers TAM has had in the past. Keep in mind that holding an event in October makes it difficult for students and educators to attend.

According to Skeptical Inquirer’s editor Kendrick Frazier, “Over our first thirty years, CSICOP held major conferences… Then for a time starting in about 2005, and for reasons hard to explain, that tradition went into a seven-year hiatus. James Randi’s JREF (James Randi Educational Foundation) began filling that gap with a new series of popular conferences, TAM, held in Las Vegas.”

I am a technical consultant for CSI but do not work for them. I have very little insider knowledge, but I can say that there seemed to be a worry that if CSICon was not a success then there might be no more CSICons. There was a lot riding on this; money is tight and getting people to attend in late October, a week before the Presidential election, was a gamble.

In my opinion, it exceeded expectations. It took the best and brightest of TAM and added to it.


We spend so much time behind our computers, passively listening to podcasts, watching science videos, all with very little collaboration with our peers. Personally, I need to interact, to break bread with others, to sit until the wee hours of the morning talking. Hearing about new projects, getting updates on old ones. I know that we are preaching to the choir, but sometimes that is what is needed; I need it. The embers die down from time to time and we need to kick the fire, put fresh wood on it, get the blaze going again so we can go home and get things done.

I love the speakers: at conferences like CSICon, you can spend time with them, take a selfie with them, share meals, ask questions, and get advice. Sitting in for the lectures is always great, a large room full of people all nodding their heads together, laughing at the same joke, and getting that awesome feeling in your gut that you are here, listening. Lawrence Krauss had to cut his talk short because he had a plane to catch, but knowing that just made him being there even more special. He was like that famous relative who drops in on the family dinner because he really wants to be there; he does not have time to be there, but he wanted to drop off presents, talk to the kids and see how they are doing in school, grab a piece of pumpkin pie, and though he would rather stay with us, he had obligations to be somewhere else. It was like that. I remember feeling pride knowing that he is one of us, he gets us, and we get him. Because it was early on Sunday morning, some of what he said went way over my head, so I’m really looking forward to the videos, but there was one very important thing that stuck with me. He was describing how they designed the gravity wave machines (LIGO) and he told us that only right now have we been able to build these machines and analyze the results. A few years ago, we didn’t have the technology. That hit home with me: what an amazing time to be alive.

Besides Krauss, the only lectures I attended were the Sunday lectures. More on that in a minute. So why is Susan Gerbic writing this article about CSICon if she didn’t attend the lectures? Because CSICon is so much more than lectures. I was there for the people.

As the leader of the Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia project (GSoW), I was there to work. On Thursday morning, Stephanie Guttormson and I shared a workshop presentation on Skeptical Activism. If you missed it, the video will hopefully be out soon. Stephanie spoke about her experience making a “response” video to a person who claimed all kinds of medical cures without evidence. As a consequence of her video, she received a court document telling her to take down her video and retract her opinion. Stephanie’s attorney was in the audience and the Q&A was quite interesting.

I spoke about the importance of having our spokespeople’s backs by giving them the best possible Wikipedia pages we can. And how, once those people have a strong Wikipedia page, it allows them to get more media attention, and therefore educate more people. You will just have to wait for the video, as I said a lot more than that, and Stephanie and I answered a lot of great questions. It was really exciting to look out at the audience and see so many interested faces looking back, but even more special when I saw people whose Wikipedia pages were worked on by GSoW. People like Paul Offit (see my pre-CSICon interview with him here) and Ronald Lindsay.

What you missed by not attending the conference were some really great moments. As I said, as the leader of GSoW I am there to educate, recruit new editors, and get work done. This involves capturing voice audio intros for Wikipedia pages. GSoW adds a one to three–minute audio clip of the Wikipedia page target’s voice. We managed to collect audio for nine different Wikipedia pages. Also, photography for use on Wikipedia pages is very helpful. Brian Engler and Karl Withakay as well as myself were able to upload many new photos for addition on Wikipedia.

Figure 1. Eugenie Scott - “Sins of Evolution Education”. Photo by Susan Gerbic.

I was given a long table off to the side of the lobby in order to be able to sit down with people one-on-one and answer questions about Wikipedia. I love doing this. People all through the conference came and sat with me, and we browsed through pages, explaining why things are the way they are, editing bits as needed. People left learning something more about Wikipedia, and several promised they were going to become future GSoW editors.

One more hallmark of CSICon is that it takes place near Halloween. I and my son, Stirling, took full advantage of this and came prepared with different outfits every day. I was Medusa on Friday, a Queen on Saturday, and a Victorian ghost on Sunday. Stirling on one morning started out as a mad scientist and over the course of the day morphed into The Fly. Even Richard Dawkins got into the fun of it and examined Stirling’s proboscis.

Figure 2. Evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins examines Stirling Gerbic-Forsyth's proboscis. Photo by Susan Gerbic.

The Halloween party was a blast. It started out pretty quiet; I didn’t recognize most people, but after mingling and photographing costumes, the party started to warm up. Jim Underdown had the idea to get people to submit karaoke songs but rewritten with a skeptical message. I was happily surprised to see that several people took him up on it and belted out on stage. Then the Halloween costume contest started. They were terrific and clever; many had skeptical themes, such as Ed and Lorraine Warren who see demons everywhere, including their haunted Raggedy Ann doll, which they brought to CSICon. It was a lot of fun to see a real paranormal investigator, Joe Nickell, engage with this couple. One very popular character was Hunter Perrin, who went as Zombie Trump. He was hilarious with his “Don’t vote for Vampire Hillary; let’s send her back to Transylvania and build a wall and make them pay for it.” One of my favorite bits was when Genie Scott wore a nametag that said “Nasty Woman” and hammed it up for the camera asking for the vote, and Zombie Trump was lurking behind her until she noticed and they both burst out in laughter. Jay Diamond wore a shirt that said “Keep an open mind” on the front. The back said “But not so open that your brains fall out.” And then his head had guts and gore everywhere; it was terrific. Dave Thomas was mad scientist Dr. Thomas from Los Alamos. Christopher Columbus and Queen Elizabeth paid a visit as well as many Star Trek (original series) characters. Marvin the Martian wore a Tyson/Nye for President t-shirt. Little Red Riding Hood brought the Big Bad Wolf. Angie Mattke entertained as a belly dancer. CFI’s own Stef McGraw came as Joe Nickell. Schrodinger Cat’s Vet showed up, complete with scratches. I was disappointed (and actually a little happy) that so few people knew who I was even after I told them I was Sylvia Browne. The winner of the contest was Mitchell Lampert who was not a strawman, but a straw Vulcan. There were so many terrific costumes and songs I’ve included links here for you to look through. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVEArFmqUCE and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_vgwalchtE&t=1s

Figure 4. CSI staff at Halloween Party. Photo by Susan Gerbic.

George Hrab’s sing-a-long is always super popular. He does one with his songs, like a free concert. And then another one that usually lasts until the wee hours of the morning where people call out songs and everyone sings along. He not only performs his duty as emcee: he acts as host wherever people gather. He is a talent and a gem. To learn more about him, read this interview I did with him before CSICon.

Figure 3. Emcee George Hrab in concert. Photo by Susan Gerbic.

Being in the foyer so much, I did get to spend quality time with speakers, which is one of the highlights of the conference. Harriet Hall and Kevin Folta were there (both of whom I interviewed before the conference. Richard Dawkins, James Randi, Elizabeth Loftus, Ray Hyman, and more were hanging around the beverage area and, for a fan girl like me, I got a thrill each time I saw them. Attendees were always coming up to them for a photo. When I took a photo of Dawkins and Bertha Vazquez together, he said “Be sure to send me a copy of that.” How cool is that?

So, we are nearing the end of this really wonderful conference. One of my favorite parts of TAM was always the Sunday Papers. This is a tradition started years ago and curated by Ray Hall. CSICon has kept this tradition and because Lawrence Krauss preceded this year’s Papers, the lectures were well-attended. Those that stayed to listen were treated to six fifteen-minute, carefully constructed, and practiced presentations. I love these mainly because they are from people I do not know, about subjects I’m unaware of. The speakers may be experts in these topics and it is such a unique perspective to be able to “look over their shoulders” into what inspires them. This year’s presenters were Dave Thomas “War of the Weasels: An Update on Creationist Attacks on Genetic Algorithms”; Ellen Tarr, “The Truth about Rh-Negative Blood Types”; Robert Knaier, “Homeopathy on Trial: Allen v. Hyland’s, Inc and a Failure of Evidentiary Gatekeeping”; Craig Foster, “Predicting Pseudoscience: Concussions and the Developing Defense of American Football”; Kathleen Dyer, “Evaluating Education for Critical Thinking: Can College Classes Reduce Belief in Nonsense?”; and Mick West, “Expert Elicitation vs. Chemtrails.” What a terrific mix of lectures. To learn more about the history of the Sunday Papers, please read these interviews I did with Ray Hall and Katie Dyer and with Jay Diamond.

It was all such a whirlwind of activity. I think I slept for twelve hours when the conference was over. When I woke up, it was not over for GSoW and I. We had to review photos and voice audio, get them uploaded and added to Wikipedia pages. One major surprise that happened only a few days prior to the start of the conference was that prolific GSoW editor Leon Korteweg, working in the Netherlands managed to pull together a Wikipedia page just for the conference. This is really incredible and GSoW has since been trying to update it with the events that happened this year. Please give it a look.

I’m working on another article about the conference, this time focused on the viewpoint of people who were first-time attendees. So be on the lookout for that, and I’ll leave you with this. If you want conferences to continue in the future, then you must fight to keep them. I heard a lot of people say “I’ll go to the next one.” If too many people say that, then there might not be a next one. Assuming there will always be one waiting for you is not the attitude to have. If you can’t go, then help sponsor some else to go. Donate to a scholarship drive so we can keep seats filled and numbers up. Now more than ever we need to keep our conferences healthy and relevant. We are at war with antiscience attitudes. We need to keep our critical thinking skills finely tuned. To do so, we need to get out from behind our computer screens and shake hands with someone new, share a drink, take a selfie, and kick those glowing embers. We need you.

Mystery Coin of 
the Yukon

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Among the curious mysteries of Canada’s Yukon Territory is the reported discovery of an unusual coin in the gold fields near Dawson City in 1900. According to raconteur Ed Ferrell in his Strange Stories of Alaska and the Yukon (1996, 120), the coin “appeared to have been minted before the Ice Age” (emphasis added). (That began about 110,000 years ago and ended approximately 12,000 years ago.)

When I lived in Dawson in 1975–1976, I never heard of this fantastic claim. Yet I spent a significant amount of time working for the Dawson City Museum where, one might imagine, other artifacts might have been acquired—if any there were—of such a stunningly early and advanced civilization. (The earliest-known civilization was Sumer in Mesopotamia, dating to about 3,500 bce.) Nevertheless, coming across Ferrell’s mystery tale, I was determined to investigate.

Figure 1. Map of the gold fields of the historic Klondike God Rush. (Author’s drawing)

Klondike Gold Rush

The coin was discovered about a year after the end (as most sources reckon) of the great Klondike gold rush. That stampede was triggered after George Washington Carmack and two Native American companions, known as Skookum Jim and Tagish Charlie, discovered gold on August 16, 1896. (Jim was the brother-in-law of Carmack, whose common-law wife Kate was on the expedition though not prospecting.) The discovery was made on Rabbit Creek, which was soon renamed Bonanza. The Klondike’s other gold-bearing creeks radiated like spokes of a wheel whose hub was a bald mountain called King Solomon’s Dome or simply The Dome (see Figure 1) (Morgan 1967, 132–142; “Klon­dike Gold Rush” 2015; Sack 1974, 3–7).

The following year, the stampeders came by the thousands, raging with Klondike fever. They arrived by land, or boat, or a combination, being required by safety-minded Canadian authorities to have a year’s worth of food—part of a typical ton of equipment and supplies. An entire tent town sprang up; so did a sawmill, and soon a clapboard Dawson City stood on the site (Sack 1974, 3–18). Banners and cloth signs proliferated (wood being scarce but cloth from tents being readily available). They proclaimed: “Gold Dust Accepted,” “New Tents,” “Dogs,” “Laundry,” “Meals 5¢,” “Saloon”—even “Fancy Dress Making” and “Fortunes Told $1” (Nickell 1994). Moneymaking schemes were everywhere.

When the majority of stampeders arrived in 1898, the most productive creeks had all been staked—with nearly 10,000 claims recorded by July. Some enterprisers amassed numerous claims, buying and selling, and hiring the “Cheechakos” (newcomers) to do the work. Others who missed out on becoming miners set up businesses catering to miners’ needs or worked for those who did (“Klondike Gold Rush” 2015; Morgan 1967, 139, 141).

News was in great demand, as shown by a surviving copy of a handwritten newspaper. The first daily paper was issued by the Midnight Sun, beating the Klondike Nugget whose editor had arrived first but awaited his equipment. He was still waiting, apparently, when The Dawson Miner came off the press. During the winter of 1898–1899 the Nugget was finally printing but forced to use wrapping paper rather than newsprint. (The editor eventually went bankrupt.) In 1899, the Dawson Daily News debuted, and the next year, on August 28, that paper published the article of interest to us, “Ancient Coin Found: A Puzzle to Students” (Morgan 1967, 139; “Klondike Gold Rush” 2015).

The ‘Skookum’ Site

I feel something of a kinship with the reported site of the coin’s discovery “at the head of Big Skookum Gulch.” I have actually been in the immediate vicinity of that site, as Big and Little Skookum creeks are tributaries of Bonanza Creek, where gold was discovered in 1896 and where I went on outings and even panned for gold (Figure 2; see Nickell 2015). (I was in the old gold fields often, for example on Hunker Creek and elsewhere, staking my own placer claim on Moosehide Creek, managing a business that ran a riverboat on the Yukon, and once whitewater rafting on the Klondike [Nickell 2015].) (Again, see Figure 1.)

Figure 2. The author as a young man panning for gold on historic Bonanza Creek. (Author’s photo)

The site name is itself interesting. The word skookum comes from the jargon of the Chinook Indians and denotes a range of positive attributes, such as “big,” “durable,” “excellent,” “powerful,” “ultimate,” and so on. It may not be a coincidence that the mouths of Skookum and Little Skookum creeks are opposite the original site on Bonanza (again see Figure 1), where gold was codiscovered by a prospector named “Skookum Jim” (Morgan 1967, 132–134 “Skookum” 2015). (Bigfoot enthusiasts claim the word was sometimes a noun, a skookum being an evil spirit of the woods that they equate with Sasquatch [Meldrum 2006, 112–113; “Skookum” 2015].1)

As originally reported (“Ancient Coin Found” 1900), the “remarkable coin” was discovered by a man named Henry Nicodet “at the head of Big Skookum Gulch and fourteen feet under the frozen earth.” In the Klondike gold fields, one made prospect holes by digging six feet down to the permafrost, then building a fire to soften the earth for about fourteen inches, digging more and repeating, until reaching bedrock where most gold was found. Thus, “with two companions Nicodet sunk to bedrock, the last five feet being through an ancient glacial mass of ice.” Then, “Directly beneath the paleocrystic mass, and lying on a fold of bedrock, he found a coin that is a puzzle to the archaeologists and numismatic experts of this section, though there are men here skilled in reading the Egyptian heiroglyphics [sic] and other ancient languages.”

Questioned Coin

The newspaper story said of the coin (“Ancient” 1900):

It is about the size of a copper cent,2 though not more than half as thick, and is apparently of brass, of some combination of copper and zinc. Both sides are covered with strange characters resembling heiroglyphics [sic] to the untrained eye, and the edge is milled as artistically as “the dollar of our daddies.” A peculiar thing about the coin is that it does not appear to be worn at all, the edges of the heiroglyphics [sic] being as sharp and clear cut as a new twenty-dollar gold piece. It was made with a die like modern coins.

In fact, this does not sound like an ancient coin at all. Not only did it have a freshly minted look, but it bore a milled edge. These features are evidential, as will be apparent from the following brief timeline of currency and coins.

In the earliest agricultural times, cattle were used for currency (about 7,000 bce). Metal money, formed of bronze ingots that were frequently cattle-shaped, and of varying weights to denote values, appeared several millennia afterward (circa 2,000 bce), and still later bronze was superseded by the precious metals silver and gold and by other shapes, such as cat heads in Egypt (ca. 1,000 bce). A natural alloy of gold that was up to 35 percent silver, known as electrum, was used to make bean-shaped ingots bearing a punchmark that signified the value, thus eliminating the need to weigh them. The first true coins were produced by the Lydians, about 640 bce; with a punch, they hammered into the soft metal the image of a man or animal that would signify the coin’s worth (Panati 1984, 169–170).

Such coins could have precious metal shaved off the edges, thus cheating the recipient. To end this practice, milled edges were invented, being introduced in the late seventeenth century (Panati 1984, 169–170). Considering the features of our questioned artifact—the milled edges, the use of dies to form the faces in relief, and the lack of wear—we can infer a relatively modern coin, or even a token. (Tokens often had milled edges too, not to prevent metal shaving but to impart a quality look.) It would have been of relatively recent manufacture, minted no earlier than about 225 years before it was discovered, and in fact might have been quite recent.

Ancient Civilization?

So the only supposed “evidence” of a fabulously ancient civilization existing, long before any known historical record, is the allegation that a coin (which is not in evidence, was not expertly examined, and which even so appears to be modern) was found where it should not have been—under prehistoric ice.

As it happens, Henry Jules Nicodet was a very real person (as CFI Libraries Director Tim Binga established for me). According to the 1901 census, Nicodet was born about 1867 in Switzerland, immigrated first to the United States, then—in 1898—to Canada. He was living with his wife and three children in Dawson City where his occupation was listed—not as gold miner but as “gardener.” This suggests that if he had had the mine on Skookum Creek at all, he had either ceased to run it, or it was not his principal endeavor. (He lived to age eighty, dying in 1947 in Tacoma, Washington, according to his death certificate.)

A number of coins and other artifacts attributed to ancient civilizations have occasionally turned up in North America, some of which have been hoaxes. Again, a “Norse penny” of 1065–1080 c.e., found at an archaeological site in Maine, was the only non-Indian artifact there and probably came from the north by trade with the Vikings. Their site at L’Anse aux Meadows at the northern tip of Newfoundland (where I have investigated) dates from about 1000 c.e. (Fort 1974, 147–160; Feder 1996, 89–118). Even in the Yukon, three Chinese coins have been discovered, one as old as 1403–1424, but these appear to have either been brought by prospectors who carried them as amulets or to have come from earlier trade: China to Russia to Pacific Northwest Indians (Lorenzi 2012).

Conclusions

Taken together, the evidence indicates that the “ancient coin” in question may have been either a coin or token, dated no earlier than the late seventeenth century. The “heiroglyphics” [sic] might have been anything from Chinese ideograms to Masonic symbols. (The apparent copper-and-zinc composition would be consistent with such coins or tokens.) At the time of its discovery—based on the newspaper report alone—a journal of coin scholarship labeled the claim a “whopper” and placed it under “Fairy Stories,” concluding, “Somebody up there is playing on credulity of the people” (see The Numismatist 1899–1900, 278–279). The original newspaper story had concluded: “Evidences of a former race having inhabited this section are unfortunately rare, but only on a few creeks has work been done, and then only to an upper bedrock beneath which is a sub-stratum of gravel superimposed on a second and probably primitive bedrock. When this is penetrated additional evidences of early occupation will probably be found” (“Ancient” 1900).

In fact, they were not. Although the gold rush had ended, mining continued—including dredging operations from 1906–1966, with millions of dollars sent to the market annually (Sack 1974, 18–21). No trace of the imagined civilization has ever been uncovered.



Acknowledgments

Thanks to Tim Binga, CFI Libraries Director, and Melissa Braun for their repeated assistance with research for this investigation.

Notes

  1. Because of an alleged Bigfoot body imprint found at Skookum Meadows in southern Washington (Meldrum 2006, 212–223)—the subject of much controversy (Daegling 2004, 94–97)—the authors of Weird Washington (Davis and Eufrasio 2008, 93) assert Skookum is now “used interchangeably with Sasquatch and Bigfoot to describe the strange apeman.”
  2. The reference to “copper cent” is probably to the American cent. The Canadian one was bronze and larger (about the size of a current American quarter). The other references to coins in this paragraph must also be to American coins, because Canada did not yet have a silver dollar or a twenty-dollar gold piece. (See Berman and Malloy 1995, 21–22, 59–60, 75–78, 167–168, 178, 184.) In 1898, ninety percent of Dawson City residents were American (Morgan 1967, 141).

References

  • Ancient Coin Found. 1900. Seattle Daily Times, September 12; reprinted in The Numismatist, vols. 12–13 (1899–1900): 278–279. (The original—in the Dawson Daily News, August 28—was also reprinted in a Juneau newspaper, the Daily Alaska Dispatch, September 22, the source used by Ferrell 1996, 120–121, although Ferrell made editorial changes.)
  • Berman, Allen G., and Alex G. Malloy. 1995. Woman’s Coins & Currency: An Identification and Price Guide to Ancient, Medieval, and Modern Coins and Currency, Including Art Medals, Bank Checks, Commemoratives, Mint Sets, and Tokens. Radnor, PA: Wallace-Homestead Book Co.
  • Daegling, David J. 2004. Bigfoot Exposed: An Anthro­pologist Examines America’s Enduring Legend. Wal­nut Creek, CA: AltaMira Press.
  • Davis, Jeff, and Al Eufrasio. 2008. Weird Washington. New York: Sterling Publishing.
  • Feder, Kenneth. 1996. Frauds, Myths, and Mysteries, 2nd ed. Mountain View, CA: Mayfield Publishing.
  • Ferrell, Ed. 1996. Strange Stories of Alaska and the Yukon. Kenmore, WA: Epicenter Press.
  • Fort, Charles. 1974. The Complete Books of Charles Fort. New York: Dover Publications.
  • Klondike Gold Rush. 2015. Available online at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klondike_Gold_Rush; accessed July 30, 2015.
  • Lorenzi, Rossella. 2012. Ancient Chinese Coin Brought Good Luck in Yukon; November 27. Available online at http://news.discovery.com/rossella-lorenzi.htm; accessed July 31, 2015.
  • Meldrum, Jeff. 2006. Sasquatch: Legend Meets Science, New York: Tom Doherty Associates.
  • Morgan, Murray. 1967. One Man’s Gold Rush: A Klondike Album (Photographs by E.A. Hegg) Seattle: U. of Washington Press.
  • Nickell, Joe. 1994. Klondike gold rush photos. In Camera Clues: A Handbook for Photographic Investi­gation. Lexington: University Press of Ken­tucky, 64–66.
  • ———. 2015. Gold Prospector. Available online 
at http://www.joenickell.com/GoldProspector/gold
prospectorl.html; accessed July 29, 2015.
  • The Numismatist. 1899–1900. Volumes 12–13: 278–279.
  • Panati, Charles. 1984. Panati’s Browser’s Book of Begin­nings. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co.
  • Sack, Doug. 1974. A Brief History of Dawson City and the Klondike. Whitehorse, YT: Yukon News Printers.Skookum. 2015. Available online at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skookum; accessed July 30, 2015.

A Champlain ‘Croc’ of Mythic Proportions

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Lake Champlain “monster” investigators Katy Elizabeth and Dennis Hall (collectively known as “Champ Search”) posted the following statement on their “Champ Search” Facebook Group1 (April 12, 2016, 6:58 pm): “My theory that Champ and Nessie are closely related to the Crocodylidae family has been confirmed by many eyewitness accounts that I have compiled.” When I explained the problems of this proposition from a physiological standpoint, they offered another post attempting to clarify their position (April 14, 6:23 am): “No. No one ever said that Champ and Nessie were crocodiles. I do believe that they are the same branch but obviously not the same exact animal.” Further comments in the thread suggested that Hall’s “Champ” candidate of choice, the extinct Triassic reptile Tanystropheus longobardicus, was somehow closely related to the Crocodylomorphs, which is highly inaccurate.2

The “Crocodylidae family” consists only of true Crocodiles, all of which are cold-blooded reptiles that lay eggs on land and could not survive the winter water and air temperatures at Lake Champlain.3 Further outgroupings are the order Crocodilia and the superorder Crocodylomorpha. Again, there is no solid evidence of any animals in these larger groupings possessing elevated metabolisms or the ability to give live birth,4 despite a lot of morphological diversity among the fossil forms.

Katy Elizabeth also posted an article at Academia.edu about “mysterious alligator-
like tracks” found near Lake Champlain5 that are not really that mysterious: they were probably made by a large snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina).6,7 While the snapping turtle has physiological adaptations to tolerate winter conditions in a place such as Lake Champlain,8 the known crocodilians do not. The average winter water temperature in Lake Champlain is 34 degrees Fahrenheit.9 The most cold-tolerant crocodilian known, the American Alligator (Alligator mississipiensis),10 succumbs to temperatures below 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit.11 This factor is why their geographical distribution does not extend farther north than southern Virginia and Oklahoma.12 All known Tanystropheids inhabited the “greenhouse” world of the Triassic period13,14 and would have had no need nor likely possessed any physiological adaptations for cold, making their suggestion as candidates for the identity of the Champlain “monsters” extremely problematic. The only giant extant reptile that would be suited to the winter thermal conditions of Lake Champlain is the wholly marine Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coreacea).15 However, some fossil plesiosaurs are believed to have inhabited bodies of freshwater with winter “sea ice.”16

The idea that the “monsters” of Lake Champlain (assuming they exist) are either crocodiles or animals with a crocodilian metabolism is poorly supported by the available evidence. While there are indeed a handful of reports of creatures in Lake Champlain that might be vaguely described as “crocodile-like,”17,18 there are two large fish species that inhabit the lake that are very crocodilian in appearance: the Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens), which can reach seven feet in length, and the Longnose Gar (Lepisosteus osseus), which can reach five and a half feet in length.19, 20 Floating wood debris has been mistaken for a crocodile as well.21



Notes

  1. https://www.facebook.com/Champ-Search-355921967855350/
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archosauromorpha
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crocodylidae
  4. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/tetrapod-zoology/awesome-sea-going-crocodyliforms-of-mesozoic/
  5. academia.edu/19711983 Unknown_tracks_Found_Near_Lake_Champlain
  6. pictures-base.com/snapping-turtle-tracks.html
  7. http://www.natgeocreative.com/photography/0508563
  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_snapping_turtle
  9. http://plan.lcbp.org/quick-basin-facts
  10. Lance, Valentine A. 2003. Alligator physiology and life history: The importance of temperature. Experimental Gerontology 38(7): 801–805.
  11. Brisbin, I. Lehr, Jr., Edward A. Standora, and Michael J. Vargo. 1982. Body temperatures and behavior of American alligators during cold winter weather. The American Midland Naturalist 107(2): 209–218.
  12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_alligator#Distribution_and_habitat
  13. http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/mesozoic/triassic/triassic.php
  14. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanystropheidae
  15. http://www.naturalhistorymag.com/htmlsite/editors_pick/1992_03_pick.html
  16. Kear, Benjamin P. 2006. Plesiosaur remains from Cretaceous high-latitude non-marine deposits in Southeastern Australia. Journal of Vertebrate Paleontology 26(1): 196–199.
  17. Bartholomew, Robert E. 2012. The Untold Story of Champ: A Social History of America’s Loch Ness Monster. Buffalo, NY: SUNY Press.
  18. http://cryptozoologynews.com/family-witness-
lake-champlain-monster/
  19. Langdon, R.W., Mark T. Ferguson, and Kenneth M. Cox. 2006. Fishes of Vermont. Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife.
  20. Bartholomew, Robert E. 2012. The Untold Story of Champ: A Social History of America’s Loch Ness Monster. Buffalo: SUNY Press.
  21. http://www.centerforinquiry.net/blogs/entry/killer_crocodile/

The Parable of the Power Pose and How to Reverse It

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Some things sound too good to be true, and on closer examination, they are—even in science. For example, over the past few years, many classic psychology studies—most in the field of social psychology—now appear to be too good to be true. No episode more clearly illustrates this problem than the “Parable of the Power Pose.”

The classic Wonder Woman power pose.

The Rise

The idea was simple. If you spend two minutes adopting an expansive, arms-akimbo Wonder Woman-like pose—or any similarly expansive pose—your hormones will get a boost, and you will go on to show increased risk-taking behavior. How cool is that? Power posing was a perfect “free, no-tech life hack” that was easy to understand and could be adopted by anyone hoping to boost their confidence at school or on the job. People loved the idea, which New York Times writer David Brooks promoted in a 2011 column. One of the authors of the seminal study, Harvard Business School professor Amy Cuddy, went on to record the second most popular TED talk—currently weighing in at thirty-eight million views. She subsequently hit the speaking circuit and published a New York Times bestselling book, Presences, that reportedly netted her a million dollar advance.

But even before Cuddy’s book hit the stores, nagging questions about the validity of power posing began crop up. The full details of the parable are reported by Tom Bartlett in a recent cover story in the The Chronicle of Higher Education, but here is a quick summary.

The Fall

In March of 2015, Eva Ranehill of the University of Zurich and her colleagues published an independent attempt to recreate the power pose study using a much larger sample and a number of additional controls. They found no effect on hormones or on risk-taking behavior. Cuddy and her coauthors responded by conducting a summary of thirty-three power pose studies, including the Ranehill study, and, while making no final assessment, they highlighted the differences between their original study and the replication by Ranehill. Then two independent researchers at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania performed a reanalysis of the data from the same thirty-three power pose studies and found that “either power-posing overall has no effect, or the effect is too small for the existing samples to have meaningfully studied it.

Finally, a crushing blow. In September of 2016, Dana Carney, one of Cuddy’s coauthors on the original power pose study, posted a statement on her web page at the University of California, Berkeley, which said, “I do not believe that ‘power pose’ effects are real” (bold and underline in the original).

As the questions about power posing emerged, Cuddy moderated some of her claims, but she still maintains the technique is beneficial. In a statement posted online, Cuddy admitted that the evidence for hormonal and behavioral changes was muddy, but she defended power posing on the basis of a consistent finding that people say they feel more confident after using it. Unfortunately, this is a rather weak defense. Many things that do not work as advertised nonetheless produce positive self-reports from users. For example, as I mentioned in an earlier column, people who use brain training programs such as Lumosity often report feeling more mentally fit despite a lack of measurable improvement in cognitive performance.

How to Reverse the Parable

This is a sad story, but there is a very extensive movement afoot to strengthen science and avoid many of the problems it presents. Brian Nosek, professor of psychology at the University of Virginia, is the cofounder and executive director of the Center for Open Science (COS), whose mission is to “increase the openness, integrity, and reproducibility of scientific research.” Nosek devised and led the “Reproducibility Project,” which attempted to replicate the results of 100 experiments selected from three of the top journals in psychology. The results of this project, which required the collaborative effort of 270 scientists, were quite discouraging. Most of the findings of the repeated experiments where much weaker than in the original published studies, and fewer than 40 percent of the studies could be substantially duplicated. A sobering reminder that the mere fact that a study has been published doesn’t make it a fact.

Well before the Reproducibility Project, several other investigations had failed to replicate the results of famous and often-cited studies—particularly in the field of social psychology. Reports in the press seemed to suggest that science was in serious peril, and although this was something of an overstatement, it became clear that a reevaluation was in order. In 2013, Nosek and Virginia colleague Jeffrey Spies founded COS, and, in just a few years, they have managed to attract a large number of corporate and foundation backers for their ambitious effort to improve the state of the art.

Center for Open Science homepage. (Center for Open Science, used with permission)

COS is based on an idea that, if the research process is opened to scrutiny by—and collaboration with—the rest of the scientific community, better, more reliable findings will result. In addition, COS is designed to help bridge the gap between scientific values and scientific practice. Ideally, science is supposed to be open, objective, and more interested in quality than quantity. In reality, much of science exists in a “publish or perish” world, where getting articles into top journals is the key to grant support, jobs, and promotions. In addition, much of the business of science is done in the secrecy of labs and offices, where researchers are free to make decisions that put their data in the most favorable light. In the bad old days (which were only a few years ago), scientists often chose to report only some of their findings and could statistically manipulate their data until something shiny and publishable popped out. Given the strong incentives for publishing and the prevailing bias in favor of statistically significant findings, the possibility of unreliable results was quite high.

COS has developed a set of Transparency and Openness Guidelines that have now been endorsed by a large group of scientific journals. Here are three of the most important features of the COS project:

  1. Preregistration

          This is akin to calling your shots in pool. Before a scientist begins to collect data, the entire design of the study should be posted publicly online. This would include a description of all of the experimental conditions that will be run, the numbers of participants or measurements that will be included, and a list of all the variables in the study. Ideally, preregistration prevents people from altering the study along the way and/or from selectively reporting the results.
  2. Open materials

          In addition to a detailed description of the plan of study, the materials used would be made publicly available.
  3. Open data

          The raw data collected in the study would all be available online. Theoretically, a journal editor, a reviewer, or any other scientist would have access to the dataset and be free to check it for errors and reanalyze it in an attempt to reproduce the results of the original investigators. There are times when, out of privacy concerns, it would be unethical to make some data public, but in all other instances openness should be the rule.
Overview of COS principles of Transparency & Openness and the three badges that are displayed on qualifying publications (Center for Open Science, used with permission)

Although the preregistration of research is just a few years old in psychology, it had an earlier start in biomedical research. In 2000, the United States Food and Drug Administration required all clinical trials for new drugs to be registered, and in 2004, a group of medical journals adopted the rule that no report of a clinical trial would be accepted for publication unless it was registered before any patients were enrolled in the study.

In the social sciences, rather than requiring preregistration, the approach has been to provide incentives for researchers to choose the open science path. A number of journals now recognize studies that use these new methods by displaying the three badges in the figure above on published articles. Research that meets the openness guidelines is likely to be considered more reliable and of higher quality, and as a result, may have an easier route to publication.

To partially eliminate the bias against studies with non-significant results, some journals (e.g., Cortex [pdf]) have said they will review preregistered studies prior to data collection and, if the design is strong enough to warrant it, will accept these studies for publication no matter what the eventual results turn out to be. To further encourage preregistration, COS is offering a $1,000 reward for each of a 1,000 qualified preregistered studies that reach publication. In addition, COS operates the Open Science Framework site, which is a free open source commons that makes it easy for researchers to post their studies, control what materials are public, and collaborate throughout the entire research process.

All of this is still very new, but it appears to have great promise. By opening up the process of research and placing needed restrictions on the freedom of investigators to manipulate their data, science is likely to become more reliable. However, making research findings more reliable is only part of the problem.

The Power of Posing as a Scientist

The “Parable of the Power Pose” is partly a story about the incremental process of science. Bits of information are gathered over time, and eventually a dependable picture begins to emerge. In this case things happened very rapidly. The original power pose study appeared in 2010—before many of these new standards for research had been introduced. The seminal study was published in Psychological Science, a prestigious journal that now awards articles with open science badges, but in 2010 it did not. By the time questions began to emerge about the power pose effect, Amy Cuddy had given her TED talk and was profiled in the New York Times. Ranehill’s study was not accepted for publication until August of 2014, and the deflating Wharton School reanalysis of power pose data came in May of 2015. Cuddy’s bestselling book—which was undoubtedly well underway by then—appeared in December of 2015. The timing of this story was unfortunate because the machinery of the power pose phenomenon was steaming ahead before the doubts had time to be tested.

Amy Cuddy is a respected researcher whose publication record goes far beyond power posing. But she has been the primary promoter of power posing in media appearances, speaking engagements, and a bestselling book, now translated into seventeen languages. It is obvious that she is a remarkable speaker, and judging from her Twitter feed, she has been a powerful inspiration to many people throughout the world. But the duties of a motivational speaker and a public scientist are very different. One requires only a story that makes people feel better, and the other requires accurately representing the known evidence in your field of expertise. How each scientist performs this duty is a personal decision.

Cuddy’s coauthor Dana Carney has taken a very different tack. Carney was the lead author on the original 2010 study, and because she and the third author Andy J. Yap supervised the data collection, she was much closer than Cuddy to the actual procedures used. Here is her summary statement:

Where Do I Stand on the Existence of “Power Poses”1

  1. I do not have any faith in the embodied effects of “power poses.” I do not think the effect is real.
  2. I do not study the embodied effects of power poses.
  3. I discourage others from studying power poses.
  4. I do not teach power poses in my classes anymore.
  5. I do not talk about power poses in the media and haven’t for over 5 years (well before skepticism set in).

Elsewhere in her statement, Carney revealed that she was a peer reviewer for the Ranehill replication study and that she strongly recommended publication. She also acknowledges that “reasonable people, whom I respect, may disagree,” but she has clearly left the power pose behind.

If Brian Nosek’s vision of open research gains wide acceptance, science will undoubtedly be stronger. Research findings will be more reliable and less likely to be overturned. But the “Parable of the Power Pose” is also about the public statements scientists make. Given the explosion of media platforms in the recent years and the various incentives for personal and professional advancement, it may be time to reexamine how scientists present their ideas in the marketplace. The American Psychological Association’s ethical standards state that psychologists “do not knowingly make public statements that are false, deceptive, or fraudulent concerning their research, practice, or other work activities” (code 5.01), but this is a rather vague statement. I am not prepared to say that Cuddy or anyone else in the power pose story has made deliberately deceptive statements. As Dana Carney suggests, reasonable people can disagree. But for scientists to be taken seriously, it is important that they bring their research to the public in a responsible manner.

When I asked Nosek how science communication problems might be avoided, he said:

My hope is that a discussion about uncertainty is part of every story. Instead of X is linked to Y kinds of headlines, the story would be about the topic of study, what the evidence suggests so far, and—importantly—other answers that are still viable. I think this latter part is an easy way to convey uncertainty, by both researchers and journalists. Just pointing out that another explanation could be true immediately shifts the reader out of that confirmatory/acceptance mindset.

What Nosek is asking for would require collaboration between scientists and journalists, both of whom are responding to a variety of competing incentives. We all prefer clear answers. We would really like someone to give us a final answer on whether coffee is good or bad for us. But as Nosek suggests, science is an incremental process that gradually scrapes away at the void. It requires a degree of humility and caution, and if the public is going to understand how science works, scientists and journalists will need to teach their audiences how to think critically about the evidence.

Unfortunately, there are no established standards for science journalism, and there is no effective mechanism for oversight. No systematic feedback loop. The New York Times employs an independent public editor, who comments on the journalistic strengths and weaknesses of the paper. Perhaps science should hire a team of public science editors who would comment on the quality of science talk in the media and the marketplace. The move to open science methods will strengthen the products of science, but until we address the way scientific findings are presented to the world outside the lab, the possibility of damaging parables remains.



Note

  1. Carney’s statement included a sixth point: “6. I have on my website and my downloadable CV my skepticism about the effect and links to both the failed replication by Ranehill et al. and to Simmons & Simonsohn’s p-curve paper suggesting no effect. And this document.”

Let’s Bring More Students to CSICon

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I had the honor of speaking this October at CSICon, held at the Excalibur Casino in Las Vegas. Attendance was respectable with about 500 attendees. I had many conversations with attendees over the four-day conference, the most popular question: What more can we do to teach critical thinking skills? The answers were always the same: better education in schools, educate the media, educate parents, and grow the movement. I would have to agree with all the above, but they are so general that really what can be done? At the conference, we heard from many experts in how they specifically are doing this. Great ideas, great inspiration. Hopefully the ideas will spread throughout the attendees and fuel them to do more once they leave. One answer, grow the movement, is what I’m hoping to answer.

I am of the mind that conference attendance, even if it is only to a skeptics in the pub event with ten of your peers, is activism. Getting out from behind your computer screen, pulling out the earbuds from your favorite podcast at least long enough to meet other like-minded people. Big things happen when we start to know each other, learn from each other and hopefully make plans to continue the conversation. Getting to multi-day conferences has all kinds of difficulties: time off from work, family obligations, finances, travel distances, and more. So often I hear, “next time” or “someday,” we need to make sure that when someone is ready and able to attend, the conference is still there to attend.

What I’m advocating for is a more focused effort to raise money for scholarships. Over the years, we have seen organizations and individuals raising money in order to sponsor first-time conference attendees. This effort seems to have become less common; at least I haven’t seen any sharing around social media of any fund-raising efforts. I see a lot of memes, cat videos and other important links, but no one has asked me to fund or share a skeptic conference scholarship fund. And why not? I think we would all agree that in order to grow the movement, motivate and inspire new people, getting them to a conference is an important first step.

Let me mention again that most conferences offer student discounts, some in limited supply. While this is helpful, remember the goal is to keep conferences happening. Discounting too many tickets is not in the best interest of the conference. These events are massive endeavors, money is always in short supply, and remember that these are a gamble for conference organizers; everything depends on attendance. So I’m not advocating for the conference organizers to lower their costs to students, but for the community to step up and help fund getting new people to the conference.

Jeanine DeNoma and husband John.

One group came to my attention that went above and beyond this year. Oregonians for Science and Reason (O4SR) gave away three scholarships, not only for conference fees, but for travel, hotel, and food costs. Jeanine DeNoma has been a good friend of mine since I met her at the 2002 Eugene, OR, Skeptic’s Toolbox. She is crazy busy in real life, but somehow her group managed to organize these scholarships and I want to know the nuts and bolts of how this happens. I don’t think you just throw money at people; there must be a lot more behind how to arrange this process. I’ve asked Jeanine what went on behind the scenes to pull this off efficiently.

I was also able to meet the three winners who were all first-time conference attendees and asked them about their impressions of the conference, what they learned, and their thoughts on the scholarship. Besides Jeanine, you are about to hear from Michael Sieler, Courtney Shannon, and Andy Ngo.


Susan Gerbic: Jeanine you’re first—Please tell readers a bit about O4SR and what went on behind the curtain.

Jeanine DeNoma: Oregonians for Science and Reason (O4SR) is an educational 501(c)3 not-for-profit membership organization formed in 1994. The idea for an Oregon local skeptic’s group grew from attendance at the Skeptic’s Toolbox held each August in Eugene, Oregon, on the University of Oregon campus and led by Dr. Ray Hyman. Over the years, our members have been generous, which has allowed us to establish an educational fund. We live in an area where science and technology are important to our economy, and perhaps because of this we’ve had members whose employers have made donations. The question our Board of Directors has asked is, “How we can best use this fund to support our mission of fighting pseudoscience and promoting critical thinking?” We sponsor free public talks with excellent speakers and promote networking among local skeptics. Like other scientific skeptic groups, our membership is primarily older and many of our founding members have since died or are no longer able to actively participate. Looking to the future, we want to help build the next generation of skeptics for this movement.

In the past, we have given scholarships to local students to attend the Skeptic’s Toolbox; we were encouraged that some of our sponsored attendees have gone on to become leaders in the skeptical community! This year, as there was no Toolbox scheduled, the board decided to fund scholarships to CSICon.

We first set a budget; we felt that it was important to cover all the costs as these were college students. We decided that as this was the first time we were attempting this type of scholarship, we would set aside $3,000, which we felt would cover conference fees, hotel, airfare, and food for three persons. We also included a $100 Visa gift card for each to cover unknown expenses.

The board defined our goals, which were that we wanted to promote involvement and skeptical activism. We wanted them to benefit personally from the experience, and see ripples in the community, local campuses, and within our local skeptic group. We viewed this as an investment in the future of our organization and the skeptical community. Board members also wanted feedback from the recipients when they returned—to hear what value they received by attending. We needed information to decide if we should do this again. Is this worth O4SR’s resources? We decided we would ask each scholarship recipient to present a project. It wouldn’t matter what that might be. It could be as simple as coming to a board meeting to tell us about their experience or something more complex. We also decided not to evaluate the applicants on what they chose to do, only that they agreed to bring back something.

Once this was accomplished we drafted three documents: an announcement about the scholarship, an application form, and a waiver of liability. We initially required recipients be a current Oregon college student, although we later expanded it to include recent graduates. We stated that applicants must be at least eighteen years old, but later we learned that the hotel required them to be at least twenty-one for their own room.

The four questions on our application were:

  1. How will attending CSICon contribute to your immediate and long range educational and career goals, life skills, and/or your contributions to the skeptical community?
  2. Why would you be a good candidate to receive this scholarship?
  3. What skeptical issues are most important to you?
  4. O4SR would like feedback about the value of your experience at CSICon, and we hope you will share what you have learned with Oregon’s skeptical community. This may take any form you choose: a short essay, presentation to the Board or at O4SR’s Annual Meeting, or something more creative such as a video, blog posts, etc. In this space, suggest what you anticipate that project would be if you are awarded a scholarship.

We emailed the announcement to our membership, to related Oregon groups, professors and contacts at local universities, local CFI and campus organizations, and other groups that support our goals. We handed out the announcement and the fliers for CSICon at every skeptic event and to our three local Skeptics in the Pub meet-up groups. Pub groups were great because, here in Oregon, we take our beer seriously and a lot of young people attend our meet-ups.

The scholarships were competitive. We received seven completed applications and had additional inquiries. We had some decisions to make. One board member had years of experience evaluating Rotary college scholarships, so he developed a fair and objective evaluation process. Before the selection committee met, we each individually reviewed and ranked the applicants. When the selection committee met, it turned out we were in general agreement as to the top four candidates. We needed only to select the top three and name the fourth as an alternate if anyone was to withdraw.

The process after selecting the attendees was a learning process; a lot went into scheduling and funding the winners. If you want to learn more, please contact O4SR and we will give you more details.

We are just beginning our evaluation process. How well did our process work for them? Can we improve? We were aware that prior to applying for the scholarships, some applicants had never heard of O4SR, CSI, or CSICon. They may not have even been aware of the skeptic’s movement. On our part, we needed to know that anyone accepting the award was sincerely interested in the conference, receptive to the content and experience, and would follow through on their project. We needed to know they did not envision this as just a free trip to Vegas. In this regard, we were not disappointed in 2016.

Our call for applications came out in the summer and in hindsight we should have planned further ahead so we could have reached more students. We believe this kind of opportunity should be available not just to students, but to new graduates and young professionals who could otherwise not afford to attend. We did finally open eligibility to these groups, and we’d encourage others who might think of sponsoring someone to consider this.

We are a small organization, but as a 501(c)3 not-for-profit public corporation, it was important to show good stewardship regarding both risk and use of our financial resources. The Board felt the scholarships clearly supported our mission, which in turn guided our goals. We put a lot of effort into developing a process for selecting good candidates to meet our goals. Now we have a process and documents that can serve as a future template. Our final step is evaluating the outcome, including feedback from our scholarship recipients.

Introducing the (O4SR) Scholarship winners

Michael Sieler: I’m currently a sophomore at Portland State University. I’m studying biology and getting a minor in German. My areas of interest in biology are genetics and biotechnology. My areas of interest in the skeptical movement are learning about effective science communication, advocate of critical thinking skills, and teaching people about the science behind genetic engineering. The seeds of skepticism were planted in my head about four years ago by my step-mom with her introducing me to Dr. Steve Novella and Dr. Joe Schwarcz, but it wasn’t until a year-and-ahalf ago that I became active in the skeptic community.

Courtney Shannon: I am currently a geographic information systems analyst and cartographer. I do contract work for environmental non-profits that focus on ecology and environmental outreach. Two major projects I am working on are the Black Oystercatchers Monitoring Project and The Hayden Island Cat Project. Prior to working in spatial analysis and ecology, I was a chemist at environmental testing labs where I tested soils, wastewater, and drinking water for inorganic analytes and prepped samples for semi-volatile organic compounds. My undergraduate degree was in environmental science.

Andy Ngo: I am a first-year graduate student in political science at Portland State University. And a science journalist.



Gerbic: Why are you interested in the topic of skepticism?

Sieler: I’m very passionate about skepticism now, because I feel that there are many people who were like me—before I discovered skepticism—that hold onto irrational fears, worries, and beliefs about things that don’t align with reality. These can be such a drain of energy, time, and resources for oneself. Also, believing in pseudoscience or superstitions can have potentially dangerous effects in one’s life (foregoing vaccinations, getting sucked into conspiracy theories, wasting money on bogus health products, etc.). If we can teach people scientific skepticism and critical thinking skills, I think it can offer people happier and more rewarding lives because they’ll be able to sift through the misinformation that is pervasive in our society and better align their beliefs with reality.

Shannon: The reason why I wanted to go to a conference focusing on skepticism is because I wanted to learn from both speakers and other attendees on how to communicate what skepticism is to the general public. When I used to tell my friends what skepticism was, they seemed to think of it as doubting everyone or being a contrarian. What I learned from skeptics such as Kevin Folta, Joe Nickell, and Kavin Senapathy is that you should show what skepticism is, not explain it. Don’t tell people you are “debunking” something—tell them that you are on a journey to get to the truth.

Ngo: My introduction to the skeptic community was through the Center for Inquiry. While most atheists I’ve met also deeply value skepticism, I found that the two communities generally have rather different focuses. Consequently, most of my energy and attention since becoming an atheist has been on challenging religion. Unfortunately, I neglected simultaneously developing good thinking skills to be a strong skeptic. In some ways, I was quite dogmatic with my anti-religion ideas.

Gerbic: Were you familiar with the CSICon speakers in advance?

Sieler: I was familiar with many of the speakers, notably: Kevin Folta, Richard Dawkins, Kavin Senapathy, James Randi, and Harriet Hall. There were a few I didn’t know: Bertha Vasquez, David Helfand, and Eugenie Scott. There were some I knew, but didn’t realize it: Julia Belluz (Vox writer) and Paul Offit.

Shannon: I was familiar with some of the speakers prior to attending the conference. A couple of years ago, I read Dr. Paul Offit’s book, Do You Believe in Magic. I particularly enjoyed that book because I read it shortly after I worked on a local losing political campaign concerning public health. Dr. Offit’s book showed me that some of the most effective purveyors of quackery are true believers themselves. Often they advocate for their pseudoscience through talking about their own life experiences, and that makes what they are saying compelling, even if they don’t have medical studies to back them up. Dr. Offit’s presentation at CSICon was about painkillers and addiction, which was a different topic from Do You Believe in Magic, but fascinating nonetheless.

I read Maria Konnikova’s The Confidence Game before attending the conference. It was great to hear the stories of famous con artists through history and hear the crowd’s reaction to them. A phrase that has struck me during the presentation is: Con artists create a story where you are the good guy. Prior to reading her book and seeing her presentation, I would have thought the signature move of con artist is the lie, but now I understand that con artists make us marks by appealing to our best qualities. In light of our current political climate, this lesson is more important than ever.

Ngo: Taking a look at the speaking roster, I was familiar with the headliners such as Richard Dawkins, Lawrence Krauss, and James Randi. The lecture topics by all the other lesser-known speakers actually interested me more, however.

Gerbic: What did you expect from the Conference?

Sieler: Make connections with fellow skeptics. Meet my skeptical heroes who were in attendance. Get a sense of where the skeptic movement was and where it is headed.

Shannon: I went to the conference hoping to meet skeptics outside the Portland area. Although I have been active in the skeptic community in Portland for years, I wanted to see if there were skeptic/scientific topics overlooked in Portland and/or unique to Portland.

Ngo: I thought the conference would be skepticism from the atheist paradigm but in fact it did not talk much about religion at all (Dawkins did a little). This was surprising to me and I like that I got to meet skeptics who weren’t necessarily atheist.

Gerbic: What did you discover?

Sieler: The skeptical movement has its own political “drama” or “growing pains” like any other community. There seem to be two camps within the skeptical community: social justice vs. free speech. Every movement has its politics and issues it’s working through, but I think what makes the skeptical movement so resilient in the face of adversity is our ability as skeptics to own up to the evidence.

Shannon: Some of the attendees asked me about why I loved skepticism and ideas on why there aren’t more younger women involved in skepticism. I am still figuring out the answer to that myself, but I think a significant part of that is so much of the products that are marketed to women these days are heavy on pseudoscience. I have known several people over the years that are salespeople for multi-level-marketing companies that peddle things such as essential oils and multi-vitamins. These companies convince their salespeople that selling their nonscientifically based “cures” is “empowerment.” Spa treatments and retreat resorts that are heavily marketed to women really promote the false concept of “answers outside science” and they package it as “relaxation” and “rejuvenation.” I have gotten into disagreements with friends over these issues through the years. What I have learned is that it’s really hard to see that you are falling for pseudoscience when definitions of “empowerment” and “relaxation” relaxation rely on you not questioning the people who are selling you that form of happiness.

Gerbic: Rewarding moments? Highlights?

Sieler: Meeting James Randi, Joe Schwarcz, and Kevin Folta. Connecting with the hard-working skeptics that are behind the scenes, such as yourself, Susan, and Debbie Goddard at CFI. Plus the numerous other volunteers and organizers of CSICon.

Shannon: This might sound hokey, but I just really enjoyed the whole conference. I honestly enjoyed just listening to the presentations. It was great to meet skeptics outside the Portland area and discuss with them what issues they dealt with in their communities. Maria Konnikova’s lecture made me feel less bad about falling for con artists in the past. It was also great to meet people such as you and Brian Engler. I haven’t been to a skeptic’s conference, so to finally go to one was a big deal

Ngo: The range of subjects, from tackling pseudoscience to identifying fake news, showed me the versatile applicability of strong critical thinking. The conference itself was enriching but I think the curated topics stayed generally within the realm of “safe” topics. I would have liked it if the conference featured analysis that was controversial or perhaps not unanimously accepted among the skeptic community (but still utilized empirical evidence and logical reasoning for its argument). With that criticism said, one of the main highlights was when New York Times contributor, Maria Konnikova, spoke about the destructive and dark side of storytelling vis-a-vis rape and abuse hoaxes. This is controversial and one of the few times I heard a speaker broach about the social difficulties of being a consistent skeptic. I mean, who wants to be seen as a rape denier?

Gerbic: Do you feel this was rewarding?

Sieler: Definitely. I would like to attend more conferences in the future, I learned a lot from all of the speakers.

Shannon: Yes. Although I am on the introverted side so I am generally less inclined to go to large gatherings, getting out to conferences to meet others and discuss scientific issues is great and helps me learn more about scientific communication.

Ngo: As a young adult and student, I think the skeptic community can reach my demographic better by discussing topics that cut into both political divides. Many in my community are nonreligious yet deeply ideological about various beliefs. Going after deeply held beliefs in a nonpartisan, consistent manner will serve the millennials well.

Gerbic: What do you think the community should be doing to involve more people... students?

Sieler: Offering more scholarships like this to students all over the United States. I know many students would be interested in attending, but don’t have the finances to attend. Conferences could feature one or two student speakers.

Shannon: I think it’s going to be difficult to get more students to come to future CSICons. I’m saying this not because of the conference itself, but mainly due to the time of the year that the conference takes place. Universities have different schedules but I could imagine a lot of schools having midterms around that time. The other big hurdle, as with most conferences, is the cost. Perhaps a way to help with that is to offer $300–$500 travel grants? If I did not have the O4SR scholarship, a travel grant to offset costs would have been compelling.

Ngo: People like myself being young adults or young-adult students? What I was trying to say in my longer answer is that I think skepticism would have more resonance with my peers if skeptics were willing to discuss controversial things, particularlyabout culture. People get upset when their beliefs about homeopathyand acupuncture are questioned but they can be truly rattled if their ideological beliefs are directly challenged. I’d like to see more of this. Ideology doesn’t necessarily mean religious beliefs but could be certain hypotheses which have become taboo to question at university (i.e., gender wage gap due to misogyny).

Gerbic: That was terrific; I really enjoyed learning more about these winners. And I had no idea that there was this much involved in organizing scholarships.

As we are thinking creatively, remember that there are all kinds of avenues open to this idea. People living near the conference venue will probably not need hotel and travel costs covered. Possibly a group could work with a local science professor to help find attendees. Another way to keep costs low is to help find roommates for each attendee, possibly mixing them with other scholarships coming from different organizations. Maybe people can donate gift cards for food areas near the conference venues?

I’m hoping that this discussion will help inspire more groups to step up and fund scholarships. And for those that are, we need to get more exposure to you in order to help fund your efforts. Conferences happen all year round all over the world, it would be a great project for an individual or organization to manage this as a project, gathering up all the names of the groups that are funding scholarships for the community to help donate. As well as helping potential attendees find the organizations that are willing to sponsor them. I’m not advocating for anyone outside of these groups to handle the funds, but to help make this easier for everyone involved. I don’t know if this is even viable but I think growing our conference attendees is an important step in growing our movement. The goal is to keep our conferences profitable so we can keep them available. And we need to grow our community. We can do this people; let’s make this happen.

Our Conspiracy-Generating Brains

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Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories. By Rob Brotherton. Bloomsbury Sigma, New York, 2015. ISBN 978-1472915610. 304 pp. Softcover, $27.


There has been an explosion of academic interest into conspiracy theories in recent years, marked by a flurry of journal articles (see “The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories” series in Frontiers in Psychology, for instance), doctoral theses, and books. Research into conspiracy theories nonetheless remains relatively niche, meaning that only a handful of scholars are well-positioned to produce a comprehensive book on the topic, drawing from empirical research. Rob Brotherton is one of them. Unlike most books on conspiracy theories, Brotherton’s Suspicious Minds does not go into much detail on conspiracies themselves but instead the thinking behind them—why people believe in them. Critically, he explains clearly up front that we are all conspiracy theorists. With this in mind, the book ought to be of interest to everyone.

Adopting a psychological approach, Brotherton explains, “Conspiracism is a lens through which the world can be viewed, and it has the potential to distort everything in its field of view.” Accordingly, he explains that the real culprit behind conspiracy theories is the human brain. We all have one, and this is why we all tend to believe in conspiracies. He clarifies that the prototype of a conspiracy is an unanswered question considered by a person who assumes nothing is as it seems. Those behind conspiracies are seen to be exceptionally competent, and normally not evil. Conspiratorial thinking is founded on anomaly hunting and is essentially irrefutable: “Attempting to refute a conspiracy theory is like nailing jelly to a wall. Since conspiracy theories are inherently unproven, the theory is always a work in progress, able to dodge refutation by inventing new twists and turns.” Notably, belief in one conspiracy theory is found to be a strong predictor of belief in other conspiracy theories—even when they are contradictory. The appeal of conspiracy theories is rejecting “the official story.”

Though drawing mostly from academic research, case studies of real conspiracy theories are present, none more prominently addressed than the MMR vaccine controversy, resulting in the retraction of a study published in The Lancet in 1998 that made the claim that the vaccination causes autism. Less well known, perhaps, is the issue of AIDS denialism. In 1992, businesswoman Christine Maggiore tested positive for HIV. With no medical training or degree, Maggiore pondered the scientific literature on AIDS and concluded it was not caused by HIV. Founding a group called “Alive and Well AIDS Alternatives,” she, with the help of the rock band Foo Fighters, staged a benefit concert. She died of AIDS, having rejected AIDS medicine; her HIV was transmitted to her children, with one of her daughters dying of AIDS before she reached four years of age.

Rich accounts scattered throughout the book underscore the practical implications of beliefs “gone wrong” and the need for improved scientific communication between researchers and laypersons. Discussing the role of expertise in some detail, and with reference to some fun research, Brotherton notes that the world has become more complex and specialized—we increasingly rely on experts to help us make sense of it. The book is very accessible yet goes into a lot of detail on the research methodology used in empirical studies. My favorite method comes from J.E. Uscinski and J.M. Parent’s 2014 book American Conspiracy Theories (Oxford University Press), which analyzed thousands of letters to the editor in the New York Times and Chicago Tribune between 1890 and 2010. It is clear that interest in conspiracies far predates the Internet.

In a lengthy discussion of our love for stories, Brotherton argues that conspiracy theories, ultimately, are stories not unlike those we have been telling each other throughout the ages. “Conspiracy theories are an exercise in connecting dots,” he explains. “Reality is overflowing with dots. To make sense of it, our brain has to be good at quickly figuring out how they are connected. In its relentless quest to turn the chaos around us into meaning, however, our brain can conjure up seductive illusions.” This is known from a wealth of related research, as summarized in Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Going into detail on recent empirical works, Brotherton convincingly shows that people who are prone to believing that climate change is a myth, that Princess Diana was “taken out” by the British Monarchy, or that Hurricane Katrina was “created” by the Bush administration using secret military weather manipulation technology have other things in common too. Fans of social cognition will be excited to read about intentionality bias, false consensus effect, proportionality bias, and other shortcuts that predict belief in conspiracy theories. To hone in on research into the belief that President Barack Obama is not in fact a U.S. citizen, research findings highlight that this perception increased after he released his birth certificate. Concluding that the so-called backfire effect is the ultimate demonstration of confirmation bias, Brotherton acknowledges, “Being smarter or having access to more information doesn’t necessarily make us less susceptible to faulty beliefs. Sometimes it just makes us better able to explain away unpalatable facts.” Once again reminding us that we are in fact all conspiracy theorists, the book serves as a useful reminder that we could all think more critically.

As we increasingly turn to the Inter­net to help us make decisions on all sorts of things, and as search results be­come iteratively refined based on our preferences, we must strive to better criticize the sources of information we encounter and adopt the point of view of others. This book, with its emphasis on a fun topic likely to be of interest to various parties, ought to help move things forward, if only a little. That is, of course, assuming that the book itself is not thought of as a tool of a conspiracy.

Fate: Inventing Reasons for the Things That Happen

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In April 2016, Houston, Texas, was struck by a massive flood that claimed seven lives. On his blog End of the American Dream, Michael Snyder noted that this was the “Eighth historic flood in this country since the end of September.” While other writers pointed to global warming as a likely explanation for such extreme weather, Snyder saw a biblical sign:

So why is this happening? Some believe that “climate change” is responsible for these bizarre weather patterns, others are pointing the finger at El Nino, and yet others believe that this is a sign that we are approaching “the last days” described in the Bible. What everybody should be able to agree on is that what we are witnessing is highly, highly unusual. (Snyder 2016)

As it turns out, Snyder is the author of several books about the coming rapture, so it is possible his interpretation was influenced by financial self-interest. But he is not the only person seeing religious meaning in the weather. During the Houston floods of May 2015, some conservative observers claimed that the city was being punished for rampant “witchcraft and sodomy,” pointing out that Houston had a “sodomite mayor” (Haraldsson 2015).

In the happier world of falling in love, people often see the hand of fate at work. A Jewish single person is sometimes said to be searching for his or her bashert. The common meaning of this Yiddish word is soul mate, but its original meaning is “destiny or fate.” On the other hand, “star-crossed” lovers—the most famous of all being Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet—are astrologically doomed from the start. As deserving of happiness as the lovers may be, things are bound to go badly.

In an interesting recent case of seeing destiny in love, Indiana couple Ashley Goodwin and Kyle Rebman met when Ashley was in the hospital and Kyle, a technician, took care of her. Eventually they fell in love and got engaged. Meanwhile, years earlier Kyle had been diagnosed with kidney disease, and by coincidence it was discovered that Ashley was a match. Without hesitation, she donated a kidney to her future husband, and both made a speedy recovery. They were to be married this past summer (“Couple Getting Married . . .” 2016). According to the report, Ashley believes that it was all meant to be. “What are the chances that he would just so happen to be working when I was sick and that’s how our relationship bloomed, and I was the one to donate the kidney to him?”

The Science of Fate

You might guess there wouldn’t be much psychological research on belief in fate, destiny, or purpose, but you’d be wrong. There is a surprisingly deep vein of studies on these topics in both children and adults. A recent poll found that 38 percent of Americans believe natural disasters are signs from God, but more abstract notions of fate, destiny, or purpose are also very common (cited in Banerjee and Bloom 2015). Humans appear to see fate in many places, and science is here to tell us why—or at least how.

Children Find a Lot of Reasons

Jean Piaget was the first developmental psychologist to propose that children see physical objects as designed for a purpose, and subsequent research has borne him out. Psychologist Deborah Kelemen of Boston University has argued that young children exhibit “promiscuous teleology” (a phrase only an academic could love), meaning they find goals and purposes in almost everything (Kelemen 1999). For example, although older children and adults understand that only living things have goals, young children are less exclusive. A seven- or eight-year-old might say that a mountain is shaped the way it is so that animals have something to climb on. Kelemen suggests that children start out with this promiscuous teleology as a kind of cognitive building block and that as they age, they learn to narrow the identification of goals and purposes to biological things.

Figure 1. Typical life event and explanations used by Banerjee and Bloom (2015).

In addition to finding purpose in the design of objects, children also see meaning in events. In a 2015 study, Konika Banerjee and Paul Bloom of Yale University tested children’s preferences for natural and purposeful explanations for life events. They selected three groups of participants: young children five to seven years old, older children eight to ten years old, and adults. The participants were given a series of simple life events, such as “Briana’s cat ran away.” Figure 1 shows an example scenario.

For each of these life events, children were given the choice between only a natural explanation (e.g., “because she left the door open”) and a natural and teleological explanation (e.g., “because she left the door open and to teach her responsibility”). Banerjee and Bloom found that the majority of younger children chose explanations that included an underlying intention, but the preference for intentional explanations decreased with age.

In a study such as this, you might imagine the children who chose the purposeful explanations all came from religious households, but Banerjee and Bloom found exposure to religion did not matter. There was no difference in the number of teleological explanations given by children from religious and nonreligious families. The same was true of the adults. Although adults had much lower levels of intentional explanations, their responses were not related to their level of religiosity.

A graph based on the results from Banerjee and Bloom (2015, Experiment 1). The descending yellow bars show that preference for purpose or goal-related explanations decreases with age. (The red bars were a control condition designed to determine whether young children simply had a preference for two explanations over one. The results suggest that it was the teleological nature of the answer that appealed to the children, not merely the number of explanations.)

Banerjee and Bloom concluded that children have a broad tendency to animate the world with purposeful explanations. They suggested that this tendency diminishes over time because children judge a broader set of events to be more “significant” than adults, who eventually come to find many of these things trivial; and with age, people become aware of the social norms that label these explanations superstitious.

Interestingly, Banerjee and Bloom take no stance on whether identifying a design or purpose necessarily requires thinking about a designer or a god. They point out that it is possible to infer the purpose of a functional object (e.g., a door knob) without thinking about a designer.

Fate Doesn’t Need a God

The situations used by Banerjee and Bloom were designed to appeal to children, and as a result they were not very good tests of adult beliefs about intention or fate. But several other studies show that when events are considered unusual or personally significant, adults also see meaning, fate, or intention. Furthermore, although religious people are more likely to see destiny in important events (i.e., the hand of God), many atheists also see intention in the world.

For example, in a study of students who were either European Canadians or East Asian Canadians, Ara Norenzayan and Albert Lee asked participants to read scenarios of very unlikely events and then describe how much each event could be attributed to fate or destiny. Norenzayan and Lee examined two demographic factors, both of which affected people’s judgments of fate: religion (Christian vs. nonreligious) and culture (European Canadian vs. Asian Canadian). As expected, Christians were more likely than nonreligious participants to point to fate as a cause, but Asian Canadians—regardless of whether they were religious or nonreligious—also were more likely to cite destiny as a cause (Norenzayan and Lee 2010).

The study by Norenzayan and Lee revealed two distinct forms people’s notions of fate can take. The first is the traditional one: God, a deity who acts as an agent controlling events on Earth. The second was simply a belief that—without reference to an external agent—the universe is interconnected and aimed at certain outcomes. In fact, the cultural difference in the interconnectedness form of destiny—most often seen in Asian Canadians—was a more powerful factor than religion.

Norenzayan and Lee also showed how the interconnected universe concept could be induced by suggestion. In a separate experiment, European Canadians who were primed by reading a short essay about the “butterfly effect” later gave more fatalistic explanations for unlikely events.

In a 2014 study, Banerjee and Bloom made things even more real by asking participants to think about an actual important life event they had experienced. In this case, 53 percent of God-believing participants and 24 percent of nonbelievers attributed their personal event to fate. Even among people who were described as “ardent atheists,” 21 percent saw some form of fate involved in their lives (Banerjee and Bloom 2014, Study 2).

In a similar investigation, Bethany Heywood and Jesse Bering found that—consistent with previous research—theists were more likely to explain difficult life experiences by reference to some external intention (e.g., “God’s plan”). But fully half of the thirty-four atheists in the study also gave at least one answer that implied a purpose to the events (e.g., “it was meant to be”; Heywood and Bering 2014).

Why All This Fate?

So, children exhibit “promiscuous teleology,” and even ardent atheists often see destiny in the things that happen. Despite the fact that—if I have not already made this point, perhaps now is the time to say—ideas of fate are supernatural or paranormal. Our scientific understanding of the origins of the universe, of species, and of human behavior do not make room for fate or destiny. These concepts would require some entity or designer standing apart from the natural world and yet controlling it. This is not a scientific idea, but it is one many people still believe—from a very young age.

Why?

This is where things get murky. Several researchers in this field hoped to get to the bottom of why this fatalistic view is so common, but their answers have been all rather speculative. Deborah Kelemen’s observations of promiscuous teleology have led her to conclude that young children are “intuitive theists” who see design in the natural world—a characteristic that poses a challenge for science education, which should be aimed at creating a natural understanding of the world, free of designers and gods (Kelemen 2004). But Kelemen is careful not to speculate on whether children’s tendency to see purpose in the world is due to nature or nurture.

In contrast, in his (very interesting and entertaining) book The Belief Instinct, evolutionary psychologist Jesse Bering (2012) argues that our tendency to see design is an “adaptive illusion” that stems from the uniquely human ability to create a “theory of mind,” hypotheses about other people’s thoughts and motives. So Bering comes down on the side of nature, suggesting that our intuitive theism is a built-in product of natural selection.

Teasing apart nature and nurture is always a difficult task. Even the five-year-old children in Banerjee and Bloom’s studies have been in the world for five years, listening to adults yammering on, day in and day out. There must be some socializing effect of all that talk.

A recent cautionary tale shows just how careful we must be when making assumptions about nature vs. nurture. For years, psychology professors have been teaching their students about a classic 1977 study by Andrew Meltzoff and M. Keith Moore, which purported to show that newborn babies were capable of imitating facial expressions, a strong indication of an inherited ability (Meltzoff and Moore 1977).

Meltzoff and Moore’s research always seemed a bit too good to be true, and now a new, more rigorous study in Current Biology shows the original results were probably wrong (Oostenbroek et al. 2016). A report on the new study in Research Digest puts it this way: “Based on their results, the researchers said that the idea of ‘innate imitation modules’” and other such concepts founded on the ideal of neonatal imitation “should be modified or abandoned altogether” (Jarrett 2016).

Human behavior is always a mixture of nature and nurture, and determining the proportions of each is rarely easy. So when it comes to our tendency to see purpose, destiny, or fate in the universe, we must be cautious in our interpretations. The study of European and Asian Canadians, for example, suggests that culture affects the type of fate that people see in the world—God versus an interconnected universe—but as yet, we have less information about how culture and socialization affect our basic tendency to see fate. At the very least we can say that for whatever reason, many young children see a design in the objects and events in the world—a design that goes far beyond science. Whether our intuitive theism is a side effect of a built-in human adaptive advantage, as Bering suggests, or is learned through socialization, this tendency to see the hand of fate represents an important obstacle to achieving a clearer, more scientific understanding of the world.



References

  • Banerjee, Konika, and Paul Bloom. 2014. Why did this happen to me? Religious believers’ and non-believers’ teleological reasoning about life events. Cognition 133(1): 277–303.
  • ———. 2015. ‘Everything happens for a reason’: Children’s beliefs about purpose in life events. Child Development 86(2): 503–518.
  • Bering, Jesse. 2012. The Belief Instinct: The Psychology of Souls, Destiny, and the Meaning of Life. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.“Couple Getting Married after She Donates Kidney to Him.” 2016. Wfla.com (April 14). Available online at http://wfla.com/2016/04/14/couple-getting-married-after-she-donates-kidney-to-him/.
  • Haraldsson, Hrafnkell. 2015. Right-wingers claim Texas flooding caused not by climate change but witchcraft and sodomy. Politicus USA (May 29). Available online at http://www.politicususa.com/2015/05/29/texas-flooding-caused-climate-change-witchcraft-sodomy.html.
  • Heywood, Bethany T., and Jesse M. Bering. 2014. ‘Meant to be’: How religious beliefs and cultural religiosity affect the implicit bias to think teleologically. Religion, Brain & Behavior 4(3): 183–201.
  • Jarrett, Christian. 2016. A classic finding about newborn babies’ imitation skills is probably wrong. BPS Research Digest (May 20). Available online at http://digest.bps.org.uk/2016/05/a-classic-finding-about-newborn-babies.html.
  • Kelemen, Deborah. 1999. Function, goals and intention: Children’s teleological reasoning about objects. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 3(12): 461–468.
  • ———. 2004. Are children ‘intuitive theists’? Reasoning about purpose and design in nature. Psychological Science 15(5): 295–301.
  • Meltzoff, Andrew N., and M. Keith Moore. 1977. Imitation of facial and manual gestures by human neonates. Science 198(4312): 75–78.Norenzayan, Ara, and Albert Lee. 2010. It was meant to happen: Explaining cultural variations in fate attributions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 98(5): 702–720.
  • Oostenbroek, Janine, Thomas Suddendorf, Mark Nielsen, et al. 2016. Comprehensive longitudinal study challenges the existence of neonatal imitation in humans. Current Biology 26(10): 1334–1338.
  • Snyder, Michael. 2016. Houston flooding is the 8th historic flood to hit America since the end of September. End of the American Dream (April 18). Available online at http://end
oftheamericandream.com/archives/houston-flooding-is-the-8th-historic-flood-to-hit-america-since-the-end-of-september.

The Science Literacy Paradox

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When presented with contradictory evidence about a politically contentious issue, it’s easy to fall into the trap of reacting emotionally and negatively to that information rather than responding with an open mind. We may not only discount or dismiss such evidence, we are also likely to quickly call into question the credibility of the source. “Motivated reasoning,” defined as the “systematic biasing of judgments in favor of one’s immediately accessible beliefs and feelings,” write political psychologists Milton Lodge and Charles Taber (2013), is “. . . built into the basic architecture of information processing mechanisms of the brain” (p. 24).

But here is the surprising paradox: studies show that in politically contentious science debates, it is the best educated and most scientifically literate who are the most prone to motivated reasoning. Researchers differ slightly in their explanations for this paradox, but studies suggest that strong partisans with higher science literacy and education levels tend to be more adept at recognizing and seeking out congenial arguments, are more attuned to what others like them think about the matter, are more likely to react to these cues in ideologically consistent ways, and tend to be more personally skilled at offering arguments to support and reinforce their preexisting positions (Haidt 2012; Kahan 2015).

The intensity and proficiency with which really smart people argue against challenging evidence explains why brokering agreement on issues such as climate change, natural gas fracking, nuclear energy, evolution, and other issues is so challenging. There is no obvious solution to this paradoxical bind, and there is no easy path around the barrier of our inconvenient minds. But in talking with others, we can adopt specific practices that may at least partially defuse the biased processing of information, opening up a space for dialogue and cooperation.

Our Knowledge-Based Differences

Over the past decade, researchers studying science-related controversies via public opinion surveys and experiments have documented numerous instances of smart people disagreeing in politically motivated ways. For example—contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus—studies find that better educated conservatives who score higher on measures of basic science literacy are more likely to doubt the human causes of climate change. Their beliefs about climate science conform to their sense of what others like them believe, the dismissive arguments of conservative political leaders and media sources, and their sense that actions to address climate change would mean more government regulation, which conservatives tend to oppose (Kahan 2015).

Lest you think that conservatives are uniquely biased against scientific evidence, other research shows that better educated liberals engage in similar biased processing of expert advice when forming opinions about natural gas fracking and nuclear energy. In this case, their opinions reflect what others like them believe, the alarming arguments of liberal political leaders and media sources, and their skepticism toward technologies identified with “Big Oil” and industry (Nisbet et al. 2015).

A similar relationship between science literacy and ideology has been observed regarding support for government funding of scientific research. Liberals and conservatives who score low on science literacy tend to hold equivalent levels of support for science funding. But as science literacy increases, conservatives grow more opposed to funding while liberals grow more supportive, a shift in line with their differing beliefs about the role of government in society (Gauchat 2015).

The polarizing effects of knowledge have also been observed in relation to religiosity and beliefs about evolution. In this case, greater science literacy predicts doubts about evolution among the most religious but acceptance of evolution among the more secular (Kahan 2015). But isn’t belief in evolution an indicator of science literacy? Rather than measuring scientific knowledge, studies show that questions about evolution tend to measure a commitment to a specific religious tradition or outlook. Many in the public are aware of the scientifically correct answer to questions about evolution, but if not otherwise prompted, by way of a process of motivated reasoning they are inclined to answer in terms of their religious views (Roos 2014).

For example, in 2012 when half of survey respondents were asked by the U.S. National Science Board to answer true or false, “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals,” 48 percent of those questioned answered “true.” But among the other half of the survey sample, those who were asked “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals,” 74 percent answered “true.” A similar difference in response occurs when a true or false question about the big bang is prefaced with “According to astronomers, the universe began with a big explosion” (National Science Board 2014). (See also, SI, “Science Indicators 2014. . . .” May/June 2014.)

Because they are politically contested issues, asking people whether they believe in evolution, the existence of climate change, or the safety of nuclear energy is equivalent to asking people with which social group they identify. As a result, people’s responses to these questions do not reflect what people know factually about the issue or how people interpret and integrate the knowledge that they hold. Instead, such questions reflect people’s core political and religious identities. In sum, our beliefs about contentious science issues reflect who we are socially. The better educated we are, the more adept we are at recognizing the connection between a contested issue and our group identity (Kahan 2015).

A Different Kind of Conversation

To overcome motivated reasoning on topics such as climate change or evolution, some research suggests that we should look for opportunities to explicitly explain the uncertainty relative to scientific understanding and to be fully transparent in how scientific conclusions are reached and how uncertainty is reduced. From this view, it is a mistake to reply to challenges to scientific authority by arguing that the “science is settled.” A scientist’s credibility, write communication researchers Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Bruce Hardy (2014), depends on communicating that she is “faithful to a valuable way of knowing, dedicated to sharing what she knows within the methods available to her community, and committed to subjecting what she knows and how she knows it to scrutiny and hence, correction by her peers, journalists, and the public.”

Political scientist James Druckman (2015) echoes similar recommendations for overcoming motivated reasoning. A key strategy is to communicate when possible about consensus evidence endorsed by a diversity of experts, make transparent how scientific results were derived, and avoid conflating scientific information with values that may vary among the public. In this case, he emphasizes the importance of “values diversity,” in which scientists avoid offering value-laden scientific information, defining for the public a “good” or “competent” decision or policy outcome. Rather than arguing on behalf of a specific outcome, experts should work to ensure relevant science is used or at least consulted in making a policy decision.

Research by Yale University’s Dan Kahan (2010) and colleagues suggests that a possible effective strategy for overcoming biased information processing is to “present information in a manner that affirms rather than threatens people’s values.” People tend to doubt or reject expert information that could lead to restrictions on social activities that they value, but Kahan’s research shows that if they are provided with information that upholds those values, they react more open-mindedly.

For example, conservatives tend to doubt expert advice about climate change because they see it as aligned with regulations and other actions that restrict commerce and industry. Yet Kahan’s research shows that conservatives tend to look at the same evidence more favorably when they are made aware that “the possible responses to climate change include nuclear power and geo-engineering, enterprises that to them symbolize human resourcefulness.”

Cultivating Reasoning Skills

In response to research demonstrating the polarizing effects of basic science literacy, decision scientists Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff (2015) in a recent study focused instead on testing the role of more fundamental scientific reasoning skills. If individuals possessed the skills to think and reason like a scientist, could this trump the tendency for really smart people to rely on their political and social identities in forming opinions about controversial subjects?

Drummond and Fischoff asked survey subjects eleven questions that measure the skills needed to demonstrate competence in evaluating scientific evidence or to “think like a scientist.” These questions asked about double-blind experiments, causality, confounding variables, construct validity, control groups, ecological validity, history and maturation effects in surveys or experiments, measurement reliability, and response bias.

Respondents on average answered seven of these eleven questions correctly. Individuals who scored higher on the scientific reasoning scale were better educated, more open-minded, and tended to be older. Of particular interest, scientific reasoning ability was unrelated to either political ideology or religiosity. After controlling for several confounding factors, higher scores on the scientific reasoning scale consistently predicted acceptance of the scientific consensus on vaccines, genetically modified foods, and human evolution but not climate change or the big bang. In a skills test, individuals scoring higher on the scientific reasoning scale were also more likely to correctly interpret numerical information regarding the effectiveness and side effects of certain drugs. Based on these findings, scientific reasoning skills appear to be predictive of attitudes consistent with scientific consensus on highly contested issues (though not on climate change). The challenge is that such skills are not easily acquired once formal education ends, leaving few if any effective communication strategies for bolstering scientific reasoning among the adult population. Nevertheless, the research findings underscore the importance of teaching scientific reasoning skills as part of the high school and college-level curricula to as broad a segment of the student population as possible. At the college level, an easy first step would be to ensure that students take a greater number of rigorous science and social science courses as part of their general education requirements.



References

  • Druckman, J.N. 2015. Communicating policy-relevant science. PS: Political Science & Politics 48(S1): 58–69.Drummond, C., and B. Fischhoff. 2015. Development and validation of the scientific reasoning scale. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.
  • Gauchat, G. 2015. The political context of science in the United States: Public acceptance of evidence-based policy and science funding. Social Forces 2: 723–746.
  • Haidt, J. 2012. The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. New York: Vintage.
  • Jamieson, K.H., and B.W. Hardy. 2014. Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(Supplement 4): 13598–13605.
  • Kahan, D. 2010. Fixing the communications failure. Nature 463(7279): 296–297.
  • ———. 2015. Climate science communication and the measurement problem. Political Psychology 36(S1): 1–43.
  • Lodge, M., and C.S. Taber. 2013. The Rationalizing Voter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • National Science Board. 2014. Science and Engineering Indicators 2014. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation.
  • Nisbet, E.C., K.E. Cooper, and R.K. Garrett. 2015. The partisan brain: How dissonant science messages lead conservatives and liberals to (dis) trust science. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658(1): 36–66.
  • Roos, J.M. 2014. Measuring science or religion? A measurement analysis of the National Science Foundation sponsored science literacy scale 2006–2010. Public Understanding of Science 23(7): 797–813.

A Mentalist and a Paranormal Investigator in Vienna

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This October, I told a thousand Viennese intellectuals about the time I was haunted.

I was speaking at TEDxVienna, an event affiliated with the TED talks. TEDxVienna, of all the TEDx events, seems especially well-attended and respected, with about 1,200 people a year, and this year the conference focused on the theme, Out There, with speakers expounding on concepts with mind-bending implications, from the gene-defying CRISPR technology, to a new way to honor the dead.

I was honored to be asked to speak about fringe science and the paranormal, with a special focus on my podcast, Oh No Ross and Carrie!, which I host with the inimitable knowledge-sponge, Ross Blocher. In Oh No, Ross and Carrie, Ross and I undergo fringe science treatments, examine paranormal claims and (most germane to my talk), join fringe groups undercover. And by undercover, I mean we tell them our real names and basically dare them to Google us. Surprisingly, very few groups do, and we are often embedded for months before anyone realizes that we are a couple of die-hard rationalists with a popular podcast.

I have often spoken about my adventures embedded in Mormonism, Raëlianism, 9/11 Trutherism, The Ordo Templi Orientis, Tony Alamo Christian Ministries, and even Scientology. But this time, I was there to make an argument. The TED format is specific, and winkingly bossy: tell the audience to do something. The organizers don’t want the audience to leave simply saying, “that was interesting,” but feeling inspired to actually behave and think in new ways. I’m up to just about any challenge (ask my boyfriend about the time he dared me to call a local pie shop and list all thirty of their pies), so I had come prepared. My call was to think of Truth in a new way, and to not be afraid to ask people for evidence.

In the talk, I speak about my own experience coming to understand truth in a new way. It starts when I was about 25, and had recently moved to Los Angeles, where I lived in a small guest house behind a larger property. Through a series of events, including auditory hallucinations and a strange foreboding pressure on my chest, I came to believe the guest house was haunted. But as you’ll learn if you watch the talk, the explanation turned to be a much more worldly, and perhaps frightening, one. Yet I only discovered this alternate (and correct) explanation for my “haunting” because someone dared to challenge me.

From this premise, I explored how important it is to challenge other people’s beliefs. The “skeptic” who told me that my haunting was probably carbon monoxide poisoning may have saved my life. I go on to discuss the difference between metaphorical truths we hold dear and meaningful, and outer, objective truth.

Everything changed, though, when I got to another story. It’s about a man who approached the Independent Investigations Group (IIG) in Los Angeles. The group investigates claims of the paranormal under controlled, scientific conditions, and offers a $100,000 reward to anyone who can prove that they have such a talent. (I got this wrong in the talk; I thought their reward was still $50,000, but it has been upgraded.) My co-host, Ross, is in the IIG, and the work they do is admirable. Even when I worked at the James Randi Educational Foundation, considered the gold standard of paranormal testing, I envied the IIG’s resourcefulness and dedication. This particular time, the IIG tested a man who believed he could hear voices in his head, and that these voices represented the actual thoughts of other people nearby. The IIG tested the claim (with conditions he had agreed to), and he failed.

As I told this story, I got a great shock.

“He believed he could hear voices in his head,” I said, and the audience burst into a roar of laughter. Perplexed, I coughed, “That wasn’t a laugh line!” and smiled. They laughed, uncomfortably.

As the anecdote went on, the laughter continued, even as I told about how the man almost certainly had a mental illness and needed psychiatric testing. I couldn’t believe my European attendees could be so mean-spirited, but trudged on. The talk finished with a flourish, and a huge round of applause.

As I left the stage, I received a text message from my boyfriend: “You know they were laughing because of the mentalist, right?”

Of course, the mentalist! Earlier in the day, mentalist Harry Lucas had given a delicious presentation of his powers, guessing people’s most innermost and obscure thoughts. Harry had not just guessed things like, “You are a Gemini,” which he wrote off as “a one out of twelve chance,” to an astonished crowd, but seemingly impossible-to-guess things like, “you are wondering when your garden will be the most beautiful. Well, it will be most beautiful in ten years,” which sent the recipient of the reading thunking to his seat with shock.

The mentalist. The camera operator had found him in the audience, as I told my story about the “man who heard voices in his head,” and cleverly landed on him, beaming out his rosy cheeks as he laughed and laughed at the inside joke everyone was in on but me. To be fair, there were monitors on stage for me, but I was looking out at the audience and didn’t notice.

Soon, person after person ran into the green room to say, “It was fantastic! And you know about the mentalist, right?” What had been a tense moment became a jolly one. I had been the butt of the joke, not the clairaudient man, and that was fine with me.

That night, I contacted Harry Lucas and asked him if he would like to hang out and discuss magic, paranormal claims, and skeptical activism. After all, the day before the big event, we had bonded over our mutual respect for James Randi, noted activist and magician. Harry not only took me up on my invitation, but gave me a day-long tour of Vienna, ushering me back to my hotel only when the sun went down.

Harry is A Big Deal ® in Vienna, and he should be. He is an impressive mentalist with a unique stage presence. Rather than being domineering and stern on stage, he is affable and sweet, the kind of person you’d like to hug (and I did!). Yet he still says that people are scared of him. No one offers him phone numbers after his act, he says. Mentalism, I guess, isn’t as sexy as some might think. Harry’s act is mostly seen in Europe so far, but he hopes to come to the United States in the future, so we can watch his star rise.

When I returned to the United States, I emailed Harry and asked him a few more questions about how our talks dovetailed, which he was happy to answer. In typical mystery-man fashion, he is brief and to-the-point.


Carrie: In case anyone isn't clear, can you define what a mentalist is and how it is different from a medium, psychic, or the more general term “magician”?

Harry: A medium or psychic usually claims to have supernatural abilities, whereas a magician in the modern day sense is seen as a performer who entertains people. The term “mentalist” is quite young and is only about 150 years old. I like to use it because people like labels, and thanks to the TV series it became a common expression. I don’t have any supernatural powers. I’m very interested in people and like to connect with my audience and entertain them in an—what I hope to be—interesting way.

Carrie: I got to watch your magnificent performance live at TEDxVienna. What a show! One of the things that struck me is how you have such a warm, friendly personality, almost at odds with the typical stage mentalist (in a good way!). Was that a conscious decision? Did you ever try to play the harsher, more “mysterious” stage magician? Or have you always just stuck with your own, natural personality?

Harry: Thank you very much. It’s interesting that you mention that, because when I started many years ago I thought that in order to be taken seriously you have to act seriously. Playing that Svengali=like character isn’t me and it took so much energy that I soon stopped trying to be someone I’m not. I like to have fun and found that people appreciate that.

Carrie: When we met up for lunch a couple of days later, I said, “Hey, great hot readings!” And you said, “maybe.” I know a magician never reveals his tricks, but can you at least give us a hint about what kind of techniques, generally, are involved? Aaaaaaany hints?

Harry: I use a lot of techniques from different areas. Magic, hypnosis, psychology, games, entertainment, and various others that I won’t talk about. Some of them are hundreds of years old.

Carrie: I tried to look up some of the people you called on in the audience, to see if they had posted about going to TEDx in advance. I could only find one: Wolfgang, the gardener. And even him, I still don’t know exactly how you got the very precise reading you did. When we’re watching you on stage giving that fifteen-minute reading, how much work are we really looking at? Hours? Days?

Harry: Honestly, years. It literally took me eight years being able to present what you saw me do at TEDxVienna. There are many different ideas coming together. I love that it is complex and has so many layers. It is interactive, so anything can happen, as you saw during the performance. It is one of the highlights of my full evening theater show and I’m very proud of it.

Carrie: When we met backstage, we bonded over a mutual respect for magician and activist James Randi. Has Randi’s reputation spread to Europe? Or are you just that good at knowing your magicians?

Harry: James Randi’s name has spread over Europe, of course. I saw Randi in 1995 live in Salzburg, and only recently, at the end of November 2016, he visited Vienna to accept the Heinz Oberhummer award for outstanding scientific communication. He gave a performance as well.

Carrie: Do you ever worry that someone in the audience won’t know that “mentalists” are magicians? Do you fear that someone will think you are really claiming to have a psychic ability? Has anyone ever accused you of hiding real psychic abilities?

Harry: I consider my audience to be intelligent enough to know that I’m not here to convince anyone of anything, I’m not promoting a religion or a belief system. I’m not a guru. I am here to entertain people in an, hopefully, interesting and personal way.

Carrie: What did you think of the camera operator’s clever pan to you when I was telling my anecdote about the man who heard voices in his head?

Harry: I thought it was brilliant and I absolutely loved it. It was such a great call back for the live theatre audience. They loved it too. At the same time I felt so sorry for you because you were irritated why they were laughing. You didn’t see what was going on on the big screen behind you, did you?

Carrie: What do you think people can take from watching our two talks together: mine on looking at paranormal claims with a skeptical eye; and yours demonstrating the same abilities that psychics and mediums often use (but they claim are paranormal)?

Harry: I think it’s a very clever idea by TEDxVienna to have both of us at the same event. I love that your talk is coming from a scientific point of view, actually trying to get behind things that seem to be inexplicable and me as a performer.

Carrie: It seems like magic (and especially mentalism) is dominated by men. Is that mistaken on my part? Are there any female mentalists I should be paying attention to?

Harry: I don’t know if there are many women mentalists around performing as such, but I guess you would find woman working as tarot readers, palm readers, or astrologers.

Carrie: Where can people in the United States find your stuff? And will you be touring here at any point?

Harry: The easiest way to find me is to visit my website www.harrylucas.com. No plans to tour the United States at the moment, but if anyone is interested, I’ll be very happy to perform there too.

Carrie: Are there any other paranormal/spiritual tricks that you’ve seen someone claim are paranormal and thought, “Hey! I can do that!”?

Harry: Yes, lots of them.

You can see more from Harry at www.harrylucas.com, and all of TEDxVienna’s 2016 “Out There” talks at their YouTube channel.

Authority and Skepticism

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When I was a child, the conversations around the dinner table in our house were especially vigorous and impassioned (as I soon learned when I discovered that I had to adjust my manner when I was a guest in other homes). When points of factual disagreement arose, this triggered the only grounds for being excused from the table in the middle of dinner: to look up the answer in the World Book Encyclopedia.

I remember vividly many occasions of triumphantly returning to the table, bulky blue volume in hand, to quote my vindication, and just as vividly the other occasions when I conceded defeat. I was wrong, and it says so right here in the World Book. The question of whether the World Book itself might be wrong seldom arose but was a recognized possibility.

Where would grownups turn today to settle similar disagreements? One of the unwelcome side effects of the mostly wonderful democratization of knowledge that has been ushered in by the age of the Internet is that we are losing consensus on what to consult when settling a bet. Sources of information that are mutually recognized as reliable—not perfect but reliable—are very useful assets for a society. If in the past we have often been overly submissive in the face of the epistemic authorities, today we risk swinging too far in the other direction and becoming knee-jerk, all-purpose skeptics. Skepticism across the board often sours into cynicism, and while a scattering of tolerated cynics in a society is probably a sign of health, when cynicism explodes into a pandemic, it can sap the enthusiasm of a people and threaten the security and coordination that permits a free society to operate. What people tend to forget is that all-purpose skepticism is too easy, a shtick that disables trust and makes resolute action on shared information more difficult.

We skeptics have a very important role to play of policing the epistemic environment, rooting out falsehoods and myths, and exposing charlatans and propagandists, but we cannot effectively do that job without endorsing and illustrating the contrast between these inferior and toxic products and methods and the (I use the word advisedly) authority of investigations done right. Does that mean that a good skeptic has to be some kind of authoritarian? Some kind of elitist? Yes. The good kind. Meritocracy has its place, and best practices are (usually) rightly called best practices. We must not be cowed by the chorus of oh-so modern (and postmodern) believers in epistemological democracy who decry the category of expert, replacing the distinction between amateur and professional with a lazy relativism that refuses to take sides.

How should we defend our acceptance of authorities when faced with the disapproving murmurs—sometimes rising to a roar—of vox populi? Carefully. We need to walk the tightrope between appropriate impatience with self-congratulatory ignorance on the one hand and on the other open-mindedness so tolerant that nonsense is granted “respect” that is mere lip service in any case. Like grade inflation, politically correct respect for all points of view threatens the quality control in thinking that modern society depends on, to put it bluntly. Not all points of view are equally “valid.” One effective tactic is pointing out that these hyper-egalitarians know better than to trust their surgeries to amateurs or even novice professionals and wax indignant when they discover that somebody has made a mistake designing their car or advising them on how to make out their income tax returns. They settle for nothing less than expertise when it comes to the arrangements that affect their health, security, and comfort. They should have the consistency to honor expertise in other arenas as well. Moreover, when they point to the lapses and foibles in science, they invariably cite the policing campaigns of science itself, the most systematically self-critical institution the world has ever known. That should be enough (though of course it seldom is).

How Can Skepticism Do Better?

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I am delighted to contribute an essay to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI) and its wonderful magazine, Skeptical Inquirer (SI), both of which I have been honored to be affiliated with for the past fifteen years. CSI and SI have ample reason to be proud of their myriad accomplishments. They have helped to make skepticism a household word in many quarters and brought tens of thousands of individuals—laypersons, students, and academicians, among many others—into the fold of the skeptical movement. Moreover, they have served as invaluable resources for scholars, teachers, and laypersons. In my field of psychology, CSI and SI have inspired thousands of college and high-school instructors to incorporate scientific thinking into their curricula. I am one of them, and I very much doubt that I would have developed my successful “Science and Pseudoscience in Psychology” undergraduate seminar at Emory University (see Lilienfeld et al. 2001) were it not for the tireless efforts and encouragement of CSI and SI.

To be true to its mission, though, skepticism must be skeptical of its own endeavors (Novella 2015; see also Horgan 2016 for a well-intentioned but less than successful effort in this regard). Hence, in this essay I look to the future and pose the question of what the skeptical movement could be doing better to advance its laudable goals.

Before doing so, I should be up front about my biases. I am a psychologist by training, and I tend to think about pseudoscientific and otherwise questionable beliefs though a distinctly psychological lens. By that I mean that I strive not merely to debunk erroneous beliefs but to understand why otherwise reasonable people often fall prey to them (see also Shermer 2002). As fascinated as I have been in evaluating the evidence—or lack thereof—underpinning pseudoscientific and otherwise questionable claims, my deeper interest has long been in why seemingly rational individuals, including prominent scientists, are so often seduced by these claims.

Ultimately, one of our principal goals as skeptics is to impart scientific thinking skills to the general public and to stem the rising tide of pseudoscience in the media, on the Internet, and in everyday life, including in the worlds of politics, business, and the law. How well are we doing?

Skepticism: A Report Card

It is not entirely clear, but there is ample reason for soul-searching. Survey data suggest that the levels of uncritical acceptance of paranormal claims, such as beliefs in extrasensory perception (ESP), psychic healing, and astrology, remain distressingly high among the general public and college students, and may even have been increasing over the past few recent decades (Ridolfo et al. 2010). Despite our concerted efforts, we still find ourselves in an age in which pseudoscience crowds out science on the airwaves and newsstands, and in which leading presidential candidates are convinced that vaccines cause autism and that our unassuming little planet has very likely been visited by extraterrestrials. To be fair, it is conceivable that without our valiant efforts to combat pseudoscience the levels of such beliefs might be even higher, especially in light of the misinformation explosion fueled by the Internet, cable television, and social media. At the same time, it may be high time to ask ourselves whether, and if so what, we could be doing better.

In this essay, I briefly touch on three major topics that I believe warrant substantially more consideration in the next four decades of the skeptical movement: (1) the extent to which our dual aims may conflict with or even undermine each other; (2) the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of our debunking efforts; and (3) the need to consider research on cognitive development in disseminating scientific thinking skills to the general public.

Conflicting Aims?

One issue that strikes me as meriting considerably more discussion is the principal aim of CSI and SI. Is our primary goal to serve as a “resource group” or “support group” of sorts for skeptics—to provide real-world and virtual forums in which we skeptics can share our knowledge and consort with like-minded thinkers? Or is our primary goal instead to boost the levels of scientific thinking among the populace and thereby diminish the levels of poorly supported and potentially harmful beliefs?

In my view, both are extremely worthy aims, and I do not intend to fall prey to the false dilemma fallacy by implying that we must necessarily select one goal or the other. Logically speaking, they are not mutually exclusive. At the same time, I have to wonder whether these two aims are to some extent operating at cross-purposes. To the degree that we talk mostly to each other at our own conferences and meeting groups, in our magazines, on our Internet blogs, and in other outlets, we may largely be forsaking our opportunities to change the minds of the general public. I also worry that we may fall prey to a false consensus effect (Ross et al. 1977), whereby we overestimate the extent to which others share our views as well as overestimate the effectiveness of our efforts.

Furthermore, by communicating mostly with each other, we may inadvertently be cultivating something of an “us versus them” mentality in which we regard individuals outside the skeptical movement to be largely unreachable (or, worse, not worthy of outreach). Like one of my intellectual heroes, astronomer and science writer Carl Sagan (1996), I have on occasion detected more than a whiff of arrogance among some of us in the skeptical movement, and I have no doubt fallen prey to this tendency myself from time to time. Resisting the temptation to perceive our critics as inherently foolish, stupid, or malicious can at times be challenging, especially when we are addressing claims that strike us as outlandish. But as soon as we commit the fundamental attribution error (Ross 1977) of assuming that erroneous beliefs in others are the products of their intrinsic dispositions—such as low intelligence or the inability to think critically—rather than of inadequate scientific training or of an understandable yearning for wonder, we may find it difficult to avoid communicating condescension and disrespect when communicating with them. Moreover, we may dismiss them prematurely as “true believers” whose views are unmalleable.

Perhaps my concerns are unwarranted or overstated. I hope so. Even so, I believe that it will be crucial for the skeptical movement to step back and take further stock of its long-term goals and how best to achieve them.

The Effectiveness of Our 
Debunking Efforts

As skeptics, we spend much of our time attempting to dispel false and poorly supported beliefs. By doing so, we hope to bring the best available scientific evidence to bear on confronting pseudoscientific and otherwise dubious assertions. Ironically, though, we rarely pause to ask ourselves a critical question: Are our methods of challenging others’ beliefs themselves consistent with the best available scientific evidence?

The psychological literature increasingly suggests that the answer to this question is a resounding “No.” Many skeptics appear to be unaware that a rapidly growing body of research on the effectiveness of dispelling false beliefs suggests that debunking is far more difficult than most of us have long assumed. The “continued influence effect,” also known as “belief perseverance,” whereby false beliefs persist despite repeated efforts to correct them (Johnson and Seifert 1994), is a major and largely unappreciated challenge to the efforts of the skeptical movement. The continued influence effect may help to explain, for instance, why recent surveys of the general public reveal that nearly one in three parents believes that vaccines may cause autism despite persuasive evidence to the contrary (Heasley 2014).

In fact, much of this recent research points to the possibility of “backfire effects,” whereby well-intentioned attempts to disabuse individuals of misconceptions paradoxically strengthens them. For example, when researchers have attempted to reduce unwarranted doubts regarding the dangers of vaccines by informing participants that the side effects of the flu virus tend to be mild and are rarely worse than the effects of the virus itself, they have found that participants tested immediately after reading this message are more receptive to flu vaccines than are other participants. Yet if researchers wait a mere half an hour, these effects are reversed—individuals become more dubious of flu vaccines than they would have been had they received no information at all (Schwarz et al. 2007; see also Nyhan and Reifler 2015)! Presumably, participants’ negation tags—the “yellow sticky notes” in their minds that remind them “This belief is false”—have peeled off. Similar backfire effects have emerged in a number of other realms, including politics. For example, liberals informed that George W. Bush did not in fact ban all U.S. stem cell research, or conservatives informed that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein did not in fact possess weapons of mass destruction, subsequently become more likely to endorse these inaccurate beliefs (Nyhan and Reifler 2010). Backfire effects appear to be most likely when false messages threaten recipients’ self-identity (“worldview backfire effects”) and when the myths themselves are repeated frequently (“familiarity backfire effects”), in the latter case probably because people often confuse a message’s familiarity with its accuracy. Both types of backfire effects should be of concern to skeptics, because we frequently challenge individuals’ core self-concepts and do so by reiterating their misconceptions.

Fortunately, psychologists and other social scientists are gradually converging on a set of evidence-based principles for effective debunking (Lewandowsky et al. 2012). In general, research suggests that effective debunking re­quires communicators to displace the false belief with a competing, and ideally more compelling, narrative. In addition, communicators should clearly—and respectfully—explain how and why the belief, although often understandable, can be misleading. Furthermore, debunkers should generally avoid repeating the myth too many times and instead focus on well-supported scientific evidence that counters the myth. If possible, pairing the debunking explanation with a vivid and easily grasped graphical depiction, such as a figure contrasting the tiny number of peer-reviewed studies suggesting a link between vaccines and autism versus the enormous number that do not, is also advisable. I strongly encourage interested readers to consult the brief and user-friendly Debunking Handbook by Cook and Lewandowsky (2011) for further recommendations.

More broadly, as the skeptical move­­ment looks ahead to the next four decades, it will need to revisit how it frames and packages its messages. It is plausible, if not probable, that we are not doing so in the maximally effective fashion. More worrisome, it is entirely possible that we are sometimes inadvertently hurting our cause. This possibility should give us pause.

Psychological Research on 
Child Development

The great Swiss developmental psychologist Jean Piaget got a number of details wrong; for example, he almost surely underestimated children’s cognitive capacities in many domains. Nevertheless, Piaget imparted a crucial insight that has stood the test of time: Psychologically, children are not miniature adults (Lourenço and Machado 1996). They conceptualize the world in markedly, perhaps qualitatively, different ways than we do. As a consequence, we cannot assume that the same debunking approaches that work with grown-ups will be successful with children.

To be effective in our efforts to disseminate scientific thinking to the general public, we may need to begin early in individuals’ lives, well before erroneous conceptions of the world have become ossified. Public health research teaches us that primary prevention is almost always more effective and efficient than secondary prevention, and the same principle is likely to apply to the teaching of critical thinking skills.

We know scandalously little about when in psychological development we can effectively begin to teach scientific thinking skills, or how to differentially craft scientific thinking approaches for children of different ages. Recent research offers some grounds for optimism. In two studies, a simple picture storybook intervention yielded encouraging success in teaching five to eight year olds about the key principles of natural selection; these effects endured for at least several months (Kelemen et al. 2014).

At the same time, there will inevitably be unanticipated challenges in teaching scientific thinking principles to children. In a brief article that should be required reading for all skeptics, Bloom and Weisberg (2007) described a number of deep-seated sources of psychological resistance to science that emerge in childhood but that probably persist—albeit in attenuated form—in adulthood. Among other things, these authors noted that young children tend to perceive purpose in many non-purposeful phenomena. For example, they commonly assume that clouds exist to make rain for people and that lions exist so that people can view them in zoos. Such teleological reasoning, dubbed “agenticity” by Michael Shermer (2009), may render children especially vulnerable to notions such as intelligent design theory, which posits that species arose from the intentional plan of a grand designer. In addition, Bloom and Weisberg observed that children are “natural-born dualists,” meaning that they regard the mind as a nonmaterial essence that is fundamentally distinct from the brain. Such dualism may render children especially likely to embrace beliefs in ghosts, spirits, and other disembodied entities, which presumably reflect the persistence of the mind following the death of the brain. In many of us, these dualist beliefs probably endure in some form into adulthood, suggesting that this line of research bears fruitful implications for dispelling adult misconceptions as well.

In my view, one of the foremost challenges to the skeptical movement in future years will be to forge stronger linkages with such disciplines as cognitive-developmental psychology and educational psychology to better understand how to immunize children against erroneous beliefs—and more broadly, erroneous ways of thinking—before these propensities become deeply entrenched in adolescence and adulthood. The conceptual and methodological difficulties here are formidable, but the payoffs are likely to be substantial.

Concluding Thoughts

The skeptical movement has every right to celebrate its past forty years of remarkable achievements, but it should not rest on its laurels. To bring skepticism to the next level—Skepticism 2.0—we will need to take a much more critical look at the success, and lack thereof, of our communication and persuasion efforts. Gathering evidence against unsupported assertions is an invaluable and necessary first step, and skeptics have made admirable progress in this regard. But now we must begin to develop more effective means of disseminating the fruits of our labors to individuals who are skeptical of our skepticism.

References

  • Bloom, P., and D.S. Weisberg. 2007. Childhood origins of adult resistance to science. Science 316: 996–997.
  • Cook, J., and S. Lewandowsky. 2011. The Debunking Handbook. Sevloid Art.
  • Heasley, S. 2014. Autism-vaccine concerns remain widespread. Disability Scoop (April 9). Available online at https://www.disability
scoop.com/2014/04/09/autism-vaccine-widespread/19267/.
  • Horgan, J. 2016. Dear “many of children’s skeptics”: Bash homeopathy and Bigfoot less, mammograms and war more. Scientific American (May 16). Available online at http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/dear-skeptics-bash-homeopathy-and-bigfoot-less-mammograms-and-war-more/?print=true.
  • Johnson, H.M., and C.M. Seifert. 1994. Sources of the continued influence effect: When misinformation in memory affects later inferences. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 20: 1420–1436.
  • Kelemen, D., N.A. Emmons, R.S. Schillaci, et al. 2014. Young children can be taught basic natural selection using a picture-storybook intervention. Psychological Science 25: 893–902.
  • Lewandowsky, S., U.K. Ecker, C.M. Seifert, et al. 2012. Misinformation and its correction continued influence and successful debiasing. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 13: 106–131.
  • Lilienfeld, S.O., J.M. Lohr, and D. Morier. 2001. The teaching of courses in the science and pseudoscience of psychology: Useful resources. Teaching of Psychology 28: 182–191.
  • Lourenço, O., and A. Machado. 1996. In defense of Piaget’s theory: A reply to 10 common criticisms. Psychological Review 103: 143–164.
  • Novella, S. 2015. Rethinking the skeptical movement. NeuroLogica Blog. Available online at http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/rethinking-the-skeptical-movement/.
  • Nyhan, B., and J. Reifler. 2010. When corrections fail: The persistence of political misperceptions. Political Behavior 32: 303–330.
  • ———. 2015. Does correcting myths about the flu vaccine work? An experimental evaluation of the effects of corrective information. Vaccine 33: 459–464.
  • Ridolfo, H., A. Baxter, and J.W. Lucas. 2010. Social influences on paranormal belief: Popular versus scientific support. Current Research in Social Psychology 15: 33–41.
  • Ross, L. 1977. The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 10, pp. 173–200). New York: Academic Press.
  • Ross, L., D. Greene, and P. House. 1977. The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 13: 279–301.
  • Sagan, C. 1996. The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark. New York: Random House.
  • Schwarz, N., L.J. Sanna, I. Skurnik, et al. 2007. Metacognitive experiences and the intricacies of setting people straight: Implications for debiasing and public information campaigns. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 39: 127–161.Shermer, M. 2002. Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time (2nd edition). New York: Macmillan.
  • ———. 2009. Agenticity. Scientific American 300(6): 36–36.

Science and Skepticism

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These are the times that try men’s souls.” This was true when Thomas Paine uttered these words, and they remain true today (though with a more inclusive gender reference). The fact that Donald Trump, a poster child of ignorance, duplicity, and hatred, could win the nomination of the Republican Party says a lot about the lack of talent leading that party, but it also says a great deal about the country. And what it says isn’t good.

I am writing these words after listening to a speech that was just delivered in North Dakota by Trump discussing global warming (“we will stop any U.S. government support for U.N. global warming studies” and “we will kill the Paris agreement”), coal production (“we will restore coal miners’ jobs”), and the environment (“we will end the EPA”). The speech has produced the intended reaction; I am upset enough to write about it. Of course, one should not read too much into these statements because Trump is notoriously disingenuous and will say whatever he can at that instant to appeal to any crowd.

Nevertheless, I have stressed in other writings that the real worry about Donald Trump is that he has no idea how ignorant he really is. To me, that is the real danger of allowing bloviating demagogues such as him to go on unchallenged. The man has clearly never questioned himself very much during his life, but, more importantly, no one close to him seems to have questioned his views either.

So, to leave the odious topic of Donald Trump, what I really want to discuss is the necessity of encouraging questions in all aspects of public and private life. This shouldn’t come as a surprise in a magazine about skepticism, but even here I don’t think it receives enough emphasis.

On the one hand, the religious mafia has effectively established a code of public discourse where it is viewed as inappropriate to openly question religious doctrine or even to ask rationally what evidence exists to underlie that doctrine. It may elicit some discomfort all around to ask someone why he or she might be voting for Trump in the upcoming election, but while political debate usually degenerates, at least the question is fair game. However, to ask people why they are Christian, or to ask whether Jews believe any of the Old Testament stories or whether they agree with the violent, hateful, misogynistic message of the scriptures that young people are forced to recite when they are Bar Mitzvahed, would be considered an inappropriate offense in polite company or on television.

But more important than even this is the fact that the nature of educating children in the twenty-first century needs to change. When I was growing up, part of the purpose of education was to provide basic information that would be necessary when we became adults. But in the current world, information as currency has dropped in value. Anyone with a smart phone—which nowadays is almost everyone—can Google any information they want.

But the information you get depends on the questions you ask, both to retrieve the information and after you get it. The Internet has no filter, which means we must become our own filters. This requires training, and I am worried we aren’t restructuring our educational system around that training.

Part of the problem of encouraging open questioning in the classroom is that teachers will not be able to answer all, or even most, of their students’ questions. But this is not a bad thing. Just as parents should be encouraged to openly state “I don’t know” when your children ask you questions, so too will only teachers who are comfortable with the material be willing to acknowledge their own limited knowledge. Following “I don’t know” should come the phrase “. . . but let’s see if we can find out.” This search will lead along various blind alleys, but that again is a good thing. Knowing how to discard distrusted sources and how to check to see if sources can be trusted is the key to making progress in this information age.

Which, to return to the odious New Yorker, is why people such as Donald Trump are so dangerous. When Trump was asked who he turns to for information or guidance, he answered, with a straight face, that he asks himself! He trusts his gut, and he also claims he knows a lot. But any person who never checks information beyond their own a priori beliefs—be they a billionaire businessman surrounded by yes-men and yes-women or an Iman who claims the Earth is flat and anyone who says otherwise should be punished—is a danger to progress in society, at least if anyone else follows him or her. The thought that such people might attain positions of political power, either in the United States or in the Middle East, is repulsive.

I don’t have a magic bullet for encouraging open questioning more broadly in society. If each of us practices this whenever we can in the public arena, it can’t be a bad example to set, which is why I am happy to celebrate this fortieth anniversary of Skeptical Inquirer. The example it has set for the past forty years should encourage all of us, and while I would hope SI wouldn’t be as necessary in the future, I suspect society will always be better if some journalists are willing to openly question prevailing wisdom. Thank you SI, and Happy Birthday!

On Homeopathy: The Undiluted Facts—An Interview with Edzard Ernst

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One of the great things about the holiday break is the opportunity to get some reading done—and Edzard Ernst has a new book out this year.

His new book traces the genesis, principles, and practice of homeopathy and discusses the reasons for its enduring popularity. Ironically, while modern medicine has changed beyond recognition, homeopathy, with its roots in alchemy and metaphysics, continues to be practiced precisely as it was in Hahnemann’s day.

Homeopathy—The Undiluted Facts : Including a Comprehensive A-Z Lexicon is the story of homeopathy and its almost magical attraction, with a rational and scientific discussion of the biological, chemical, and psychological questions that this treatment raises.

As he writes in the book:

My foremost aim is to provide a service to consumers by reporting the scientific facts in an accessible way. Most people who are tempted to try homeopathy and even many users of homeopathy have little idea what this type of treatment is all about. They might believe that it is akin to herbal medicine, for instance. Or they may assume that homeopathy works like vaccinations. Or they may think that homeopathy is synonymous with holistic health care. Misconceptions of this sort can never be a good basis for therapeutic decisions. I aim not to perpetuate old myths, but rather to facilitate well-informed, evidence-based decisions.


Edzard Ernst: I’m a retired professor of alternative medicine for twenty years at Exeter University. I’ve researched alternative medicine, all aspects, all treatments that you can think of. Now I’m retired, having published quite a lot, and my most recent book is on homoeopathy.

Kylie Sturgess: You’ve had a career that has spanned many years, and now your new book is called Homoeopathy—The Undiluted Facts. What led to this particular publication being written after all the other work you did?

Ernst: Homoeopathy has been with me all my life. As a boy I was treated by a homoeopath, my first job after studying medicine was in a homoeopathic hospital, and then I researched homoeopathy. I felt that a book would be in order not least because the lay public misunderstands homoeopathy so very much. Even from skeptics, I get the impression that they are often not quite sure what it is and make a lot of errors when they criticize homoeopaths.

Sturgess: What are some of the errors that even the critics of homoeopathy make?

Ernst: The most obvious is to claim that there’s nothing in homoeopathic remedies. This obviously is true for a lot of them but not for all of them.

If you take arsenic, for instance, you take the pure arsenic. If it’s prepared according to a homoeopathic pharmacopoeia, pure arsenic is already a homoeopathic remedy. You don’t buy it over the counter because it would kill you. The first dilution of arsenic contains enough arsenic still to kill you. The second dilution also could be deadly. There are too many misunderstandings and things are actually quite, quite complicated.

The other misunderstanding about homoeopathy is that there’s one single homoeopathy that we can criticize. Not true. There are actually quite a few different types of homoeopathy. There’s classical homoeopathy as it was taught by Hahnemann 200 years ago, but there are other forms like clinical homoeopathy, complex homoeopathy, isopathy, etc., etc. It all gets very complicated, and I thought a book would be in order to explain all these complexities.

Sturgess: I notice you wrote that you avoid jargon and did your best to abstain from taking sides while writing the book. Was it difficult due to your prior experiences, or did it help knowing that you had experienced both being pro-homoeopathy and then becoming skeptical of it?

Ernst: I think in the world of homoeopathy I’m probably quite unique because a homoeopath obviously is totally convinced and they’re often very deluded and remote from reality. Maybe I was such a homoeopath once upon a time. Now I’m one of the most outspoken critics of homoeopathy and therefore I understand both camps and I have a degree of sympathy with both camps. I think this makes the book unusual.

Sturgess: What particularly surprised me is the decline of the prescription of homoeopathy through the NHS in the U.K. What surprised you when you were doing the research for the book?

Ernst: If you go and research a subject and you go deeper and deeper, you find new things about homoeopathy, about virtually any subject, that you didn’t expect. The surprising part about homoeopathy which skeptics don’t like to hear is that there are quite a few studies which I cannot fault methodologically. They’re sound studies, and they are showing that homoeopathy works. I’m not saying that the evidence in total shows that homoeopathy works. In fact, the evidence, if you look at it critically and you summarize, the totality of the evidence does not show that it works. If you pick out certain studies, you find very good studies that show the opposite, and this is yet another mistake that skeptics make about homoeopathy when they say there’s no good evidence.

First of all, there’s plenty of evidence. They have got 500 clinical trials. Secondly, some of these trials do show that homoeopathy works, and some of these trials that show that homoeopathy works are actually methodologically sound. (I can only speculate why this is so, there are 2 main possibilities: 1. Pure chance; 2. Fraud.) Again, full of contradictions and fascinating, an absolutely fascinating subject.

Sturgess: The last time I interviewed you was about your memoir, A Scientist in Wonderland, and I asked you about your view of the future for alternative medicine claims. Do you think that your view has changed since that time?

Ernst: I don’t know what I said last time but I do know that I’m not very good at predicting the future! If not, I would be on the west coast betting on horses or getting very rich. I’m just a scientist, and I’m not somebody who can read tea leaves.

Having said that, I think alternative medicine is here to stay. We can fight it as much as we want to. People are just not rational and they want to believe in alternative medicine and lots of other things. What we can do is prevent the worst harm that cranks can do and that’s what I’m trying to do.

Why Skepticism?

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Twenty years ago, I became actively involved in the skeptical movement when I and several others founded a humble local skeptical group. We were inspired by CSICOP (now CSI) and Skeptical Inquirer to add what we could to efforts to make the world a more skeptical place.

Over the past two decades, the skeptical landscape has changed quite a bit, but one constant has been the endless question: What is skepticism? What exactly do we do and why? As the movement has grown and diversified, the question has become only more complex.

What Is the Mission of the 
Skeptical Movement?

I have come to understand that scientific skepticism is a weird beast that is often difficult to understand, especially from the outside. We are not exactly scientists or journalists or lobbyists or educators, and yet we are all of those things to some extent.

I think the best way to explain scientific skepticism is that it is expertise in everything that can go wrong with science and belief, and it includes execution, communication, education, and regulation. It combines knowledge of science, philosophy, and critical thinking with special expertise in flawed reasoning and deception.

To understand this better, here is a list of what scientific skeptics promote and do.

Respect for Knowledge and Truth: Skep­tics value reality and what is true. We therefore endeavor to be as reality-based as possible in our beliefs and opinions. This means subjecting all claims to a valid process of evaluation.

Methodological Naturalism: Skeptics believe that the world is knowable because it follows certain rules or laws of nature. The only legitimate methods for knowing anything empirical about the universe follows this naturalistic assumption. In other words, within the realm of the empirical you don’t get to invoke magic or the supernatural.

Promotion of Science: Science is the only set of methods for investigating and understanding the natural world. Science is therefore a powerful tool and one of the best developments of human civilization. We therefore endeavor to promote the role of science in our society, public understanding of the findings and methods of science, and high-quality science education. This includes protecting the integrity of science and education from ideological intrusion or antiscientific attacks. This also includes promoting high-quality science, which requires examining the process, culture, and institutions of science for flaws, biases, weaknesses, conflicts of interest, and fraud.

Promotion of Reason and Critical Think­ing: Science works hand-in-hand with logic and philosophy, and therefore skeptics also promote understanding of these fields and the promotion of critical thinking skills.

Science vs. Pseudoscience: Skeptics seek to identify and elucidate the borders between legitimate science and pseudoscience, to expose pseudoscience for what it is, and to promote knowledge of how to tell the difference.

Ideological Freedom/Free Inquiry: Science and reason can flourish only in a secular society in which no ideology (religious or otherwise) is imposed upon individuals or the process of science or free inquiry.

Neuropsychological Humility: Being a functional skeptic requires knowledge of all the various ways in which we deceive ourselves, the limits and flaws in human perception and memory, the inherent biases and fallacies in cognition, and the methods that can help mitigate all these flaws and biases.

Consumer Protection: Skeptics endeavor to protect themselves and others from fraud and deception by exposing fraud and educating the public and policy-makers to recognize deceptive or misleading claims or practices.

Addressing Specific Claims: Skeptics combine all of the above to address specific claims that are flawed, biased, or pseudoscientific and to engage in the public discussion of these claims.

Cultural Memory: Skeptics as a whole act as the cultural memory for pseudosciences and scams of the past. Such beliefs tend to repeat themselves, and remembering the past can be very useful in quickly putting such beliefs into their proper perspective.

Science Journalism: Many skeptics spend a large portion of their time doing straight science communication and journalism, which is important because science is so central to our mission. This is also an important skill to explore and develop because it is so rarely done well. Correcting and criticizing bad science news reporting, especially in the Internet age, has become a large part of what skeptics do.

What Topics Do We Cover?

Traditional skepticism addresses a very broad range of topics: all of alternative medicine, parapsychology, cryptozoology, conspiracy theories, scams, postmodernism, self-help, education, science and the media, neuroscience and self-deception, fringe science, and a long list of topics that have political, religious, or social implications: genetically modified foods, organic farming, free energy and other energy issues, climate change, creationism, miracle claims, faith-healing, prophesy, channeling—the list is massive.

There has been frequent discussion about which topics skeptics “should” cover. My approach has always been that everyone, of course, should feel free to cover whatever topics suit their interests, motivations, and talents. There are no right or wrong topics to cover.

There are, however, many considerations worth discussing. Skepticism is a method of applying science and critical thinking to all areas. It is worth thinking about how those methods relate to any particular topic of interest.

Here are some of the factors I consider when deciding what topics to address as part of my skeptical activism.

Teachable Moment: One very important criterion is this: Would addressing a claim or topic provide a useful teachable moment? Since one (if not the) primary goal of skepticism is education, this is a crucial criterion, and in fact it is often sufficient reason to address a topic.

This is the primary reason I have never addressed issues such as ghosts, Bigfoot, astrology, or the Bermuda Triangle (classic skeptical topics all). I honestly don’t care at all about ghosts, and I agree that this has extremely low priority as an issue. However, ghost hunters engage in a variety of pseudo­scientific activities and defend their claims with numerous logical fallacies.

There are many generic lessons about science and critical thinking that can be learned by examining any pseudoscience, and often the most obvious ones are the best examples.

I have also found that by examining the full spectrum of pseudoscience, I have been able to see recurring patterns that enable me to understand pseudoscience much more thoroughly and then apply those lessons to more important areas such as medicine.

Interest: Related to the teachable moment criterion is public interest. The whole point is to engage the public, and one technique for doing so is to go to where the people already are. The public is interested in ghosts, cryptids, and UFOs, and in fact they often learn pathological science from popular treatments of these topics.

If we leave these popular subjects to the charlatans, they will happily spread scientific illiteracy unopposed. This is, however, a great opportunity to teach the public about how science actually operates, mechanisms of self-deception, how to tell if a claim is valid, and how to detect pseudoscience.

Addressing pseudoscience and the paranormal is a way to popularize science, such as writing about the physics of Star Trek or the philosophy of The Simpsons. Ghosts and UFOs are the hook; the payoff is scientific literacy and the ability to think a bit more critically.

Impact: The relative impact or importance of an issue is definitely important, and nothing I write here should be interpreted as dismissing or minimizing that point. In fact, as the skeptical movement has matured over the past few decades I have noticed a definite shift to issues of greater social importance.

My primary issue is alternative medicine, the abject infiltration of fraud and pseudoscience into the institutions of healthcare. This results in the wasting of billions of dollars and diverting of research funds, and it causes direct harm to the health of individuals.

Other important issues we tackle regularly are vaccine refusal, global climate change, genetically modified foods, our energy infrastructure, future technology, teaching creationism and other pseudoscience in science classes, issues surrounding mental illness, the self-help industry, scams, racial or gender pseudoscience, and other issues that have a direct impact on people’s lives and our civilization. We also may consider how much of an effect we can have. Some issues are more amenable to scientific information than others.

Expertise: The world needs all kinds of experts, and scientific skepticism is a legitimate area of expertise. It involves a deep knowledge of pseudoscience, the philosophy of science, mechanisms of deception, neuropsychological humility, scams, logic, and other aspects of critical thinking. This includes knowledge of the history of pseudoscience.

Within skepticism, individuals also tend to focus their writing and speaking on their area of scientific expertise. So, skeptical doctors focus on medicine, astronomers on astronomy, biologists on issues such as evolution and creation, physicists on free energy, and so on.

If we have a bias, it is toward the areas of expertise that also tend to attract people to the skeptical movement itself, but this is hard to avoid. It is also not simple to correct, and straying outside of our areas of expertise is not a good solution. At the very least, it takes a lot more work to address an issue about which I am not already fairly expert.

Filling a Need: Very relevant to the question of what targets skeptics choose is who else, if anyone, is already addressing those problems. For example, reviewing evidence and establishing a standard of care for a particular issue within mainstream medicine is very important, but there are already professional societies that do that. All physicians and scientists should be skeptical, but in areas where mainstream scientists are already doing just fine at addressing misperceptions, physicians who have an expertise in skepticism are not needed and have nothing particular to add.

We tend to focus our efforts where there is the most need, meaning where there is a current lack of attention. Fringe ideas tend not to get attention from scientists, who don’t want to waste their time. Whether or not this is a reasonable position is debatable, but meanwhile skeptics are happy to fill the void. As a skeptical neurologist, for example, I am not going to spend my time delving into and engaging in debate over the possible mechanisms of Parkinson’s disease. There are scientists who are doing that. But I will engage with those claiming that near-death experiences are evidence for an afterlife because most scientists don’t bother to do that.

Journalistic Integrity: This last criterion is a bit of a personal choice. Some journalists and outlets unapologetically advocate for a political ideology. Everyone knows the Huffington Post is a liberal news source, for example. Some journalists, however, try to be as politically neutral as possible so that they will be viewed as a fair arbiter of factual information and analysis.

Similarly, some skeptics combine their skeptical activism with ideological activism. I have no problem with this, and most are upfront about it. Some skeptics, however, choose to be political or ideologically neutral in their activism, except for a defense of science and reason. I think this can be helpful.

While I certainly do have political opinions, I try to keep them separate from questions of science and evidence. If, for example, I am discussing global warming, I want to focus on the science and not be dismissed as liberal. Or if I am writing about GMOs, I do not want to be dismissed as conservative or libertarian. That can still happen, sometimes simultaneously, because people make unwarranted self-serving assumptions, but it helps when it is untrue. My opinions on these and similar topics are informed by the science, not my politics. This becomes a harder sell when you are also advocating for a political position. I also think it is helpful to have a movement that is based upon evidence and logic and is agnostic toward ideological positions or values, which are tangential.

Finally, it is more challenging to be neutral and unbiased when dealing with an issue about which you have a passionate ideological belief. You can make a reasonable argument for steering clear of such issues when trying to communicate objective science, or at least proceeding especially carefully. Otherwise you risk damaging your reputation as a science communicator.

What about Religion?

More often than not, the question of what skeptics do and what topics we address comes to the topic of religion. While I believe I have addressed all the relevant issues above, this is a common enough question that it is worth special mention.

No skeptical activist I know treats religious claims differently from any other type of claims. Any claim to empirical truth or scientific knowledge, whether based ultimately in religious ideology or social or political ideology, is fair game. The criteria I outlined above apply. Philosophical arguments are also fair game, as the tools of logic and critical thinking apply.

However, it is important to recognize that faith statements are simply different from scientific or philosophical statements. This does not mean they are exempt from critical thinking; it just means you need to be aware of the context and address them properly. This distinction, however, is often misinterpreted as avoiding religious claims, which is patently not true.

When a believer states that they believe something to be true based upon their own personal faith, there are a number of valid approaches. It is important to point out that the principles of freedom of religion and separation of church and state require that their personal faith not be imposed upon others. They don’t have a right to make other people follow their faith, to deprive their children of the basic necessities of life, or expect government to legislate their faith.

It is also useful to point out that beliefs based purely on faith are not subject to scientific analysis, and therefore they do not belong in the arena of science. They therefore cannot mix faith and science. Either the science stands on its own or it doesn’t. You cannot legitimately use faith to rescue bad science from refutation or to render it immune to falsification.

This applies to faith-based beliefs that are not overtly religious. It is not uncommon for believers in alien visitation or extrasensory perception (ESP) to retreat to faith-based claims when the evidence does not support their position. They are effectively refuted by simply stating that they have left the arena of science and therefore have ceded this territory. If they wish to have a religion of ESP, then so be it, but they cannot simultaneously claim to be backed by science.

In other words, skeptics can address faith claims epistemologically without making the same epistemological error as the believer in order to falsely claim that empirical methods can disprove beliefs that are not empirically based.

Conclusion

Being part of the skeptical movement for most of my adult life has been extremely fulfilling and tremendously educational. After two decades, I still find it among the most rewarding work that I do. There is also a continued great need for the expertise and work of activist skeptics. We are engaged in work that will never be completed. Our goals are generational, to slowly move our species in the direction of science and reason.

Count me in until entropy prevails over my temporary biological processes.


The True Story of The Bye Bye Man

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A new horror film titled The Bye Bye Man scared up $16 million in box office sales over the past week. The film is based on the chapter “The Bridge to Body Island” in Robert Damon Schneck’s nonfiction book The President’s Vampire (reissued last year as The Bye Bye Man, complete with the obligatory cover teaser “Now a terrifying motion picture!”).

The film’s plot, as provided by the film company: “When three college students move into an old house off campus, they unwittingly unleash a supernatural entity known as The Bye Bye Man, who comes to prey upon them once they discover his name. The friends must try to save each other, all the while keeping The Bye Bye Man’s existence a secret to save others from the same deadly fate.”

Intrigued by the topic, I read the book and interviewed the author. Our conversation covered a wide range of topics, from alien abductees to Charles Fort’s disappointingly lax scholarship (see Schneck’s chapter “The President’s Vampire” for more), but we soon chatted about the monstrous creation he helped usher to the big screen.

That most films claiming to be “based on a true story” are heavily—or perhaps entirely—fictionalized is hardly news to skeptics, and even the average moviegoer likely harbors some doubts. From a folkloric perspective there are many red flags that the story of The Bye Bye Man (as Schneck described it to me and in his book—he didn’t write the screenplay) is fiction.

There are several meta-layers to The Bye Bye Man’s story: It began as a story pieced together by three real people (Eli, John, and Katharine) around 1990 when they experimented with a Ouija board. They came to believe that several spirits were talking to them, and one told the trio a story about something called The Bye Bye Man. The legend, as told by an entity they called The Spirit of the Board, described an albino child in an orphanage in Algiers, Louisiana, in the 1920s. Shunned by others and mentally disturbed, he stabbed a nurse with scissors as a teenager, escaped the home, and began riding the railways on a serial killing spree. He would cut up his victims and use pieces of them to create a companion he named Gloomslinger, which somehow came to life and helped him find victims. At some point The Bye Bye Man became psychic, and was drawn to his next victim when they thought about him or said his name (this theme would appear on the book cover and in the film as the catchphrase “Don’t think it. Don’t say it”).

After the Ouija sessions ended, the three had a handful of strange experiences and dreams they couldn’t explain, but little more came of it for many years as all went on with their lives. One of them, Eli, had a tradition of telling this spooky story on Halloween nights, and it eventually came to the attention of Schneck, who’d authored several books and articles on strange-but-true stories.

To be clear about the provenance: The Bye Bye Man film is adapted from a chapter in a book by Schneck, which is in turn based on a story told to him (as true) by three people who claim they had conversations with a spirit entity through a Ouija board in 1990, who told them the story of an evil spirit named The Bye Bye Man. It’s a legend within a (supposedly true) a story within another story and adapted into another story. And “that story has been the most popular thing I’ve written,” Schneck told me.

I asked him what he thought about the truth behind the story.

“Well, it’s a story,” he told me.

I replied with a chuckle, “I know it’s a story...but do you think it’s a true story?”

He paused and said, “I don’t think it’s very likely, because there’s just no real reason to... There was no reason for thinking that the story, as told, was true.” The primary source, Eli, “is the first to admit that when he tells the story on Halloween, he embellishes it. He tries to make it a better story; he will exaggerate things—he’s a storyteller, and he’s the first to admit it.”

Though over a decade had passed and no records were kept of what was said at the Ouija séances, Schneck interviewed the principals and did his best to see if there was any truth to this bizarre, ghost-dictated tale. He researched two unequivocal parts of the story that seemed to hold out some promise of being verified: whether there had ever had been an orphanage in Algiers, Louisiana, and whether there had been any unsolved murders (whose signature would be missing body parts) that could be attributed to The Bye Bye Man. The answer to both of those questions was no.

Origin of the Bye Bye Man

Schneck writes, “Without an orphanage or evidence of murders, the story appears to be an invention. But who invented it and why?” The answer is that The Bye Bye Man story emerged in the same way all stories do: through individual and collective imagination. Fiction writers draw from a wide variety of sources, including life experiences, memories, stories, movies, impressions, dreams, sounds, and everything else that influences consciousness and makes up a life. While some influences are known and obvious, many are unconscious and remain a mystery even to the writer. It’s not uncommon for an artist, writer, or musician to speak of feeling like a vessel or medium for ideas, of telling a story whose precise inspirations are unknown. It’s not magical or mystical (at least not in the paranormal sense) but instead the essence of human creativity.

Asking where The Bye Bye Man came from is like asking a fiction author where she gets her ideas: Anywhere and everywhere in her life experience—and “in her life experience” is important because people write about what they know, what they’re personally and culturally steeped in. I’m not likely to think, dream, or fantasize about golf, for example, because I know virtually nothing about the sport and have no interest in it. It’s the same reason that a seventeenth-century French peasant would not imagine a story (or write a song) about playing video games: they’re not part of his worldview or experience.

The story of The Bye Bye Man was created by three people, all of whom believe in the power of the Ouija board to convey supernatural information. Here is how Schneck describes two of the three in his book: “Eli and John both enjoy horror as entertainment, but their interest goes beyond movies, novels, and role-playing games. Both are writers, and Eli is especially prolific, producing books, stories, and plays with macabre themes. He has a degree in folklore, is well read on the subject of serial murder, took part in the Goth sub-culture, which is fascinated by death, and spent many years involved in parapsychology.... He has spent long hours in graveyards, haunted houses, and Satanic churches [and] worked with psychics, Wiccans, and sorcerers... John studies philosophy, mysticism, and the works of Joseph Campbell. He has a special interest in...the how and why of what makes things frightening, and a history of paranormal experiences” (p. 152–153). The third in the group, Katharine, is described by Schneck as easily excitable, suggestible, and subject to panic attacks.

One could hardly pick three personalities more suited to creating a fictional, scary, folklore-derived character such as The Bye Bye Man. As several film reviewers have commented, The Bye Bye Man plot seems culled from many elements of other horror films, urban legends, and scary stories—exactly the material these three were familiar with.

For the trio who originally created the character and many audiences, the idea of The Bye Bye Man may seem plausible. Just as many people genuinely believe that hypnosis can help retrieve—rather than create—repressed memories or past lives, many also believe in the ability of Ouija boards to communicate with the dead or occult powers.

The original Bye Bye Man story Eli and others reported is only one of many supposedly dictated by unseen spirits through Oujia boards; perhaps the most famous was through a woman named Pearl Curran, who claimed to be in contact with a dead woman named Patience Worth (the claim was later debunked, though it seems likely that Curran genuinely believed she’d been in contact with the dead). Ouija boards convey unconscious information from their participants in a process known as the ideomotor effect. Of course the participants do not recognize that they are the source of the information instead of some external intelligence—that is precisely why Ouija boards are considered mysterious and occult.

Indeed, Schneck acknowledges that “sitters talked about the messages they were getting, speculated freely, and may have engaged in a ‘process of joint imaginative creation’ that was expressed through the Ouija board” (p. 162). Absent any evidence that the story is true, the simplest explanation is almost certainly the correct one: The three unwittingly made up The Bye Bye Man story, told it to Schneck a decade later as true (to the best of their knowledge, while acknowledging exaggerations and embellishments), and Schneck then wrote a chapter about it (in a book whose subtitle includes “Strange-but-True Stories”) that was later adapted into a film.

To Schneck, whether The Bye Bye Man really existed is less interesting than where the idea came from. “It’s like we’re watching an urban legend being born. That’s why I was expecting it to become like what Slender Man became, because it felt that way.... What I find so fascinating is that this is like getting to the core of where stories come from, it’s like seeing a story being born,” Schneck said. “To watch folklore being made right in front of you is just a fascinating thing.”

It is indeed rare to be able to pinpoint the precise origins of a given piece of folklore or urban legend. It’s only happened a few times in the past few decades: I did it in my investigation into the vampire beast el chupacabra, tracing its origin to a Puerto Rican eyewitness who’d seen a 1995 horror/science-fiction film (see my book Tracking the Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folklore), and—in a closer parallel with The Bye Bye Man—folklorists know exactly where, why, and how Slender Man was created. For more information on Slender Man’s origins, see the folklore journal Contemporary Legend (Series 3, Volume 5, 2015), published by the International Society for Contemporary Legend Research.

The Bye Bye Man is “based on a true story” insofar as it’s true that the story was made up—not that some malevolent urban legend figure is out there killing people who think about him or say his name. Though the story is, as Schneck admits, almost certainly not true, it remains an interesting case study in psychology and folklore.

Whether Schneck himself believes in the validity of Ouija boards, dreams, or The Bye Bye Man, he is folklore and media savvy enough to see the topic’s potential. “This is not really my story,” Schneck says. “I never claimed that it is. It’s really Eli’s story and he was generous enough to share it. It started with these three people; Eli has always been telling it to his friends, so it’s been told to a few hundred people. I got ahold of it, and a few thousand people then heard about it on the radio and in my book. And now it’s going to be a movie. Millions of people are going to hear about it.... This could literally become a part of our culture.”

Schneck has helped introduce a Slender Man–like entity into popular culture, but whether it will ultimately be incorporated into organic, genuine belief (as Slendy has) or dismissed as a commercialized derivative of a spooky urban legend figure remains to be seen.

What Science Is and How and Why It Works

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If you cherry-pick scientific truths to serve cultural, economic, religious, or political objectives, you undermine the foundations of an informed democracy.

Science distinguishes itself from all other branches of human pursuit by its power to probe and understand the behavior of nature on a level that allows us to predict with accuracy, if not control, the outcomes of events in the natural world. Science especially enhances our health, wealth, and security, which is greater today for more people on Earth than at any other time in human history.

The scientific method, which underpins these achievements, can be summarized in one sentence, which is all about objectivity: “Do whatever it takes to avoid fooling yourself into thinking something is true that is not, or that something is not true that is.”

This approach to knowing did not take root until early in the seventeenth century, shortly after the inventions of both the microscope and the telescope. The astronomer Galileo and philosopher Sir Francis Bacon agreed: conduct experiments to test your hypothesis and allocate your confidence in proportion to the strength of your evidence. Since then, we would further learn not to claim knowledge of a newly discovered truth until multiple researchers, and ultimately the majority of researchers, obtain results consistent with one anther. This code of conduct carries remarkable consequences. There’s no law against publishing wrong or biased results. But the cost to you for doing so is high. If your research is rechecked by colleagues and nobody can duplicate your findings, the integrity of your future research will be held suspect. If you commit outright fraud, such as knowingly faking data, and subsequent researchers on the subject uncover this, the revelation will end your career.

It’s that simple.

This internal, self-regulating system within science may be unique among professions, and it does not require the public or the press or politicians to make it work. But watching the machinery operate may nonetheless fascinate you. Just observe the flow of research papers that grace the pages of peer-reviewed scientific journals. This breeding ground of discovery is also, on occasion, a battlefield where scientific controversy is laid bare.

Science discovers objective truths. These are not established by any seated authority or by any single research paper. The press, in an effort to break a story, may mislead the public’s awareness of how science works by headlining a just-published scientific paper as “the truth,” perhaps also touting the academic pedigree of the authors. In fact, when drawn from the moving frontier, the truth has not yet been established, so research can land all over the place until experiments converge in one direction or another—or in no direction, itself usually indicating no phenomenon at all.

Once an objective truth is established by these methods, it is not later found to be false. We will not be revisiting the question of whether Earth is round; whether the Sun is hot; whether humans and chimps share more than 98 percent identical DNA; or whether the air we breathe is 78 percent nitrogen. The era of “modern physics,” born with the quantum revolution of the early twentieth century and the relativity revolution of around the same time, did not discard Newton’s laws of motion and gravity. What it did was describe deeper realities of nature, made visible by ever-greater methods and tools of inquiry. Modern physics enclosed classical physics as a special case of these larger truths. So the only times science cannot assure objective truths is on the pre-consensus frontier of research, and the only time it couldn’t was before the seventeenth century, when our senses—inadequate and biased—were the only tools at our disposal to inform us of what was and was not true in our world.

Objective truths exist outside of your perception of reality, such as: the value of pi, E=mc2, Earth’s rate of rotation, and that carbon dioxide and methane are greenhouse gases. These statements can be verified by anybody, at any time, and at any place. And they are true whether or not you believe in them. Meanwhile, personal truths are what you may hold dear, but there exists no simple way of convincing others who disagree except by heated argument, coercion, or by force. These are the foundations of most people’s opinions. Is Jesus your savior? Is Mohammad God’s last prophet on Earth? Should the government support poor people? Is Beyoncé a cultural queen? Kirk or Picard?

Differences in opinion define the cultural diversity of a nation and should be cherished in any free society. You don’t have to like gay marriage. Nobody will ever force you to gay-marry. But to create a law preventing fellow citizens from doing so is to force your personal truths on others. Political attempts to require that others share your personal truths are, in their limit, dictatorships.

Note further that in science, conformity is anathema to success. The persistent accusations that we are all trying to agree with one another is laughable to scientists attempting to advance their careers. The best way to get famous in your own lifetime is to pose an idea that is counter to prevailing research and which ultimately earns a consistency of observations and experiment. This ensures healthy disagreement at all times while working on the bleeding edge of discovery.

In 1863, a year when he clearly had more pressing matters to attend to, Abraham Lincoln—the first Republican president—signed into existence the National Academy of Sciences based on an Act of Congress. This august body would provide independent, objective advice to the nation on matters related to science and technology. Today, other government agencies with scientific missions serve similar purposes, including NASA, which explores space and aeronautics; NIST, which explores standards of scientific measurement on which all other measurements are based; DOE, which explores energy in all usable forms; and NOAA, which explores Earth’s weather and climate.

These centers of research, as well as other trusted sources of published science, can empower politicians in ways that lead to enlightened and informed governance. But this won’t happen until people in charge, and the people who vote for them, come to understand how and why science works.

Turmeric/Curcumin: The “Natural Remedy of the Century” or a Waste of Money?

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Turmeric is a yellow spice used in Indian cuisine; its active ingredient, marketed as a dietary supplement, is curcumin. It is widely used in Ayurvedic medicine, where it is said to balance vata, pitta, and kapha, to kindle agni, and to help reduce kapha and ama. It allegedly supports the blood, liver, joints, immune system, and digestive tract. It cleanses the subtle channels and chakras, and even grants prosperity! Aren’t you impressed? Hippocrates said, “Let food be your medicine” but I don’t think turmeric was what he had in mind.

Claims for its Benefits Mainly Come from Unreliable Sources

Claims for its health benefits are all over the Internet, mainly on websites that sell it. It has been hyped as a miracle spice and “the natural remedy of the century.” Stop aging now! Stop inflammation! Promote detoxification! Deal with brain fog, memory impairment, aches and pains, and mood issues! “There is no nutrient on earth more effective than curcumin at promoting a healthy inflammatory response in your brain, heart, and throughout your entire body.” One website even claimed it was as effective as fouteen prescription drugs including statins, antidepressants, and the diabetes drug metformin. Wow! Wouldn’t it be great if it could really do all that? I wish!

Andrew Weil recommends it and thinks it is effective against cancer, arthritis pain, and inflammatory conditions such as autoimmune diseases.

The infamous Mercola makes all sorts of claims for it. He says it modulates about 700 of your genes, makes your cell membranes “more orderly,” suppresses symptoms of multiple sclerosis, treats Alzheimer’s, and “appears to be universally useful for all cancers.” Yeah, sure!

The even more infamous Health Ranger, Mike Adams of naturalnews.com, says he did his own statistical analysis of over three million published studies and found that curcumin was the most frequently mentioned phytonutrient. Most of the studies he found were preclinical in vitro and animal studies that do not constitute evidence for benefits to humans. He cites research showing that it causes colon cancer cells to self-destruct—in tissue cultures in the lab. But then, as Rose Shapiro pointed out in her book Suckers: How Alternative Medicine Makes Fools of Us All, you can kill cancer cells in the lab with bleach or a flame-thrower. He ridiculously asserts that stating the results of positive scientific studies could get you thrown in jail. He calls it part of the FDA’s “war on knowledge.” Sure, it must be a conspiracy; it couldn’t possibly be that the evidence is insufficient.

Evidence of Lack of Benefits from Reliable Sources

All that is meaningless to scientific medicine. We want compelling evidence. What we want to know is whether there have been any controlled clinical studies showing significant benefits in humans, and there have indeed been a few such studies. The Natural Medicines Comprehensive Database reports that curcumin has been used topically for skin conditions, in the form of enemas for ulcerative colitis, and orally for a wide variety of conditions such as the common cold, leprosy, ringworm, headaches, jaundice, peptic ulcers, diabetes, fatigue, depression, cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, and many others. They combed the published literature and they list the studies they found showing what they call only “possible” effectiveness in hyperlipidemia, osteoarthritis, and pruritis; but they didn’t find evidence of curcumin’s effectiveness for any other condition. And they found reports of side effects and warned about possible drug interactions and other potential problems.

WebMD calls it “unproven,” and Wikipedia says “it has no medical uses established by well-designed clinical research.”

And now a thorough new review of the scientific literature, published in the American Chemical Society’s Journal of Medicinal Chemistry, and available online, has pretty much put the kibosh on the claims of health benefits. They evaluated preclinical studies and more than 120 completed or ongoing clinical trials. They found that many of the studies were flawed: for instance, they failed to do counter-screens for assay interference, and failed to consider the stability of the compound; and different studies used different preparations. They found “evidence that, contrary to numerous reports, the compound has limited—if any—therapeutic benefit.” They found that it is unstable under physiological conditions and not readily absorbed by the body. Although “natural,” it may not be entirely safe. Toxic effects have been reported under certain testing conditions.

They said “Unfortunately, no form of curcumin, or its closely related analogues, appears to possess the properties required for a good drug candidate (chemical stability, high water solubility, potent and selective target activity, high bioavailability, broad tissue distribution, stable metabolism, and low toxicity. The in vitro interference properties of curcumin do, however, offer many traps that can trick unprepared researchers into misinterpreting the results of their investigations.” They offer strategies to avoid such errors in future research.

They called it “much ado about nothing,” but they didn’t entirely give up on it. They suggested that turmeric extracts and preparations could have health benefits, “although probably not for the number of conditions currently touted.” They recommended that future research account for the chemically diverse constituents that may synergistically contribute to its potential benefits.

As Science Daily quipped, “it’s probably not all it’s ground up to be.”

Conclusion: You Can Depend on it for Flavor but not for Health Benefits.

It might have some minor health benefits; it hasn’t been proven not to have any. Hope springs eternal, consumers love “natural,” and trying it is not likely to cause any serious harm unless it is used as a substitute for effective treatment of a disease. It might even make consumers feel better through suggestion and placebo effects. The probability of health benefits from curcumin dietary supplements would seem to be pretty low, but turmeric does have other benefits. It enhances the flavor and appearance of Indian food. That’s enough for me!

Fake News Begets Fake News: Pizzagate

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Pizzagate, the conspiracy theory—based on John Podesta’s leaked emails—that claims a popular Washington, D.C. pizzeria hosts a pedophilia ring (not unlike the alleged pedo rings of the 1980s Satanic Panic) has resurfaced. This time it is put forward by investigative reporter Ben Swann, who works at a CBS news affiliate in Atlanta. In February 2011, when I lived in Atlanta, the CBS station aired a story by Jeff Chirico about chemtrails that prompted literally thousands of emails and photos from viewers around the world. In the wake of that unexpectedly vigorous reaction, the editors explored more stories with a conspiratorial bent. I know this because when I read about the reaction, I asked if I could have access to the emails. I met the reporter, and we had a discussion about conspiracy theories and I ended up in a short piece about the Georgia Guidestones, along with researcher Raymond Wiley, which aired in May of 2011. So, when I heard that a new video was circulating from CBS46 about Pizzagate, I was not necessarily surprised, but the tone of this one was much different.

This week’s Reality Check segment by Swann is called “Is Pizzagate Fake News?,” and he starts off describing the media reportage of the story as dismissive and that the story has widely been labeled as “fake news.” He asks as an aside, “What does that [the term fake news] even mean?” Well, he fully answers that by the end of the segment.

The segment is presented almost as a continuous shot of Benn Swann as he speaks in front of a slide show. In some ways, it reminds me of Glenn Beck’s conspiracy theorizing in front of a chalk board. What we have instead of a news report with interviews and reporting from the field, then, is a monologue listing decontextualized evidence and “connections,” tenuous as they may be. He starts with a little CYA, giving the barest background on the story and including a bullet point about how none of the emails mention child sex trafficking or pedophilia:

Most reporters might conclude from that the emails in question are not about sex trafficking or pedophilia, but not Swann. “There are dozens of what seem to be strangely-worded emails dealing with pizza and handkerchiefs,” he says. “Self-described online investigators say that those words in the emails about pizza and the talk of handkerchiefs is code language used by pedophiles.”

There is a lot to unpack here, so bear with me.

If you search the Wikileak Podesta archive for “handkerchief,” you’ll see it is more accurate to say that there are nine mentions in five email threads of the term “handkerchief” in the 50,000 Podesta emails. In the four-email thread “Did you leave a handkerchief,” we see that Podesta appears to have left a handkerchief behind during a tour of some real estate with a member of the staff of the Sandler Foundation. The note from the agent mentions that the object was left on a kitchen island of the “Field house.” The Sandler Foundation rep tells Podesta:

The realtor found a handkerchief (I think it has a map that seems pizza-related. Is it yours [sic]? They can send it if you want. I know you're busy, so feel free not to respond if it's not yours or you don't want it.

Podesta says it’s his but not important. This is the only time that the terms “handkerchief” and “pizza” come up together. Podesta, who is supposed to be the link, never uses the terms in the email, rather they come from the Sandler Foundation rep. And while the description is vague but not suspicious in any way, Podesta certainly doesn’t freak out that his handkerchief map to pedophila pizzarias has been discovered.

We find many more mentions of pizza when we search the archive: 149, to be exact. And a quick examination of these suggest that these are in reference to dinner, feeding people doing political canvassing, and other types of events that political humans do. If you come across something in there that is more sinister than anything I saw in my brief skimming of the content, please let me know. But remember, according to Swann himself, he’s been going over the evidence for a month. Certainly he could at least share one coded message to the audience to show that he was talking utter bunk without offending his viewers? Apparently not. Instead, he mystery mongers and we’re left only with: “dozens of what seem to be strangely-worded emails dealing with pizza and handkerchiefs.” Further, to say something is strangely-worded, of course, is to make a subjective judgment. He invokes strangeness without offering any evidence of the strangeness. Maybe it would be more convincing if it turns out that handkerchiefs and pizza really are a sort of secret coded language that allows of pedophiles to pedophile openly in plain sight?

Well, this is a surprisingly tough thing to fact-check. However, according to a summary of the Pizzagate theory, the relevant term is not “pizza” but “Cheese Pizza,” which supposed to be a reference to “Child Pornography.” Their citation is an entry in the Urban Dictionary. The phrase “cheese pizza” does not appear in the Podesta emails at all. A search of Google Books does not turn up meaningful results for the search “cheese pizza,” “handkerchief,” and “pedophilia.” But let’s say that even if these really are code words, and one is based on the initial letters of the words “child” and “pornography,” Swann never explains why the use of a code word would lead us to think that an actual pizzeria was involved? There is no reason to even follow up and consider Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria as the scene of a child sex crime based on secret pedo alliteration.

Just for giggles, I did another search, this time of my own email for mentions of pizza. In Podesta’s email there are 149 uses of the word in some 50,000 emails. I don't have time to go through them all. When I searched my own Gmail account, after removing references to “fake” and “conspiracy”—thus hiding Google alert results related to pizzagate—in my 109,058 emails there are 154 mentions. So pizza is mentioned twice as often by Podesta and his correspondents as it is by me and my correspondents. I’m pretty sure he attends at least twice as many pizza dinner fundraisers for Hillary as I do. Benn Swann does not even do this level of analysis, which is remarkable for someone who has been “investigating” for a month.

Swann next says that mainstream media says Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria has no relation to anyone mentioned in the emails, suggesting that the media is ignoring the fact that the owner of the restaurant is a friend of Podesta. Swann apparently doesn’t read the New York Times, which stated exactly what Swann thinks the media is hiding on November 22:

Mr. Alefantis [Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria’s owner] mingles with other Washington chefs and his establishment helped him to be named No. 49 in GQ magazine's 50 most powerful people in Washington in 2012. His customers include some high-powered locals, such as Tony Podesta, the brother of John Podesta, whom Mr. Alefantis knows casually. Mr. Alefantis and Mr. Brock, who is the founder of Media Matters for America, a website that tracks press coverage critical of the Clintons and works to debunk misinformation in the conservative press, broke up five years ago.

The misinformation campaign began when John Podesta's email account was hacked and his emails were published by WikiLeaks during the presidential campaign. Days before the election, users on the online message board 4Chan noticed that one of Mr. Podesta's leaked emails contained communications with Mr. Alefantis discussing a fundraiser for Mrs. Clinton.

What Swann says reiterates that there is no direct evidence linking Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria to a pedo sex ring, but then he makes assertions about evidence that he can’t show us. All of this evidence is discussed at more length in a recent episode of the Virtual Skeptics (at time 16:20).

So what’s the upshot here? Well, according to Swann, as he closes the story, “There has not been one single public investigation of any of this, not from local police, not from the FBI, no-one. And that has to be the big question, not for Podesta or for pizza parlor owners but for law enforcement. Based on may be or may not be here, the big question is why hasn’t any investigation taken place?” Then, despite having the title of “Investigative Reporter,” he immediately doesn’t ask the police authorities why they aren’t investigating. So I did. I sent an email to the Metropolitan Police Department and an officer got back to me in minutes:

“The Metropolitan Police Department takes matters such as this very seriously. After investigating those claims, we have determined those allegations to be false.”

This seems to be Swann’s M.O. when talking about conspiracy theories. In 2013, Swann did a video with Luke Rudkowski (of We Are Change) about the ReThink 9/11 movement. In the video, he didn’t talk to anyone who disagreed with the 9/11 conspiracy and he repeated the results of a poll that suggested that Americans were increasingly skeptical of the official story of 9/11. By coincidence, I contacted the pollsters about this survey and its methodology when it came out (Swann seems to not have gotten around to it) and found that respondents were prompted with a deceptively edited video of the collapse of Building 7. All of the questions raised by the Rudkowski/Swann video and the Pizzagate piece have answers. It is the job of responsible reporters to look for the answers, not just ask questions. Otherwise, you are left with fake news.

Promote Reason, Prevent Climate Catastrophes: Let’s Get ’Er Done

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We had another Reason Rally in Washington, DC, this year. Like so many of us, I am concerned about women’s rights and civil rights writ large. I am very concerned about so many of our leaders, who are continually confused about the traditional separation of our laws and their religions. I shake my head with every recitation of the pledge of allegiance that includes “under God.” Although I love to sing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” (I really do), I often head to the concession stand in time to miss the singing of “Deity Bless America.”

But for me, right now in the summer of 2016, my overwhelming concern is human-caused global climate change. I strongly believe it’s the most serious kind of trouble, and it’s coming at us like a runaway train. Sure enough also, although astronomically it was not quite summer, it was a hot day. People largely stayed out of the sun by standing under the trees along the north and south sides of the Washington Mall’s reflecting pool. It was a metaphor for humankind’s first reaction to our changing climates: run away. But of course, Earth is it for us humans. There’s no place to run. So, here’s what I said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, skeptics, nontheists, and especially the believers who may be here, thank you all for including me in the events today. As we stand before this shrine to Abraham Lincoln, one of history’s most thoughtful critical thinkers, I cannot help but feel that we are at a critical time, a turning point in the history of my beloved United States and the history of humankind.

Our ability to reason has helped us provide clean water, reliable electricity, and access to an electronic information infrastructure to a large fraction of people who live in the developed world. Critical thinking, reason, and science got us here. And these traditions will help us bring these technical advantages to everyone on Earth—and, dare I say it, change the world.

With these noble goals in mind, today citizens around the globe are dealing with enormous costs and extraordinary hardships associated with rapidly rising waters and weather events of the extreme kind. We have floods in Texas, terrifying windstorms in the central United States, flooding in southern Germany and France, the river Seine, Paris—the very city that hosted the most recent Conference of the Parties climate summit. There were 193 parties in attendance all hoping to work together to resolve this global-scale problem of atmospheric and oceanic warming—climate change—that has been heretofore largely ignored by most of us in the United States.

Through our enterprises, we have loaded the Earth’s atmosphere with carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases that are warming our world 106, one million times faster, than it has ever warmed in its four-and-half-billion-year history. Humankind has brought this on—humankind must address it. But today, our efforts have barely begun.

As an engineer and citizen of the United States, I cannot help but wonder why this is. Why is this country, which for over a century was the world leader in science, engineering, and innovation, not the world’s leader in the renewable energy technologies and especially the carbon curtailing policies that we must create and put in place as soon as we can?

A handful of climate change deniers have managed to hoodwink us, to lead us to believe that there is some doubt among the overwhelming majority of scientists about the seriousness and consequences of global climate change, even as our rivers overflow their banks. Without thinking much about it, we allow climate deniers to equate routine scientific uncertainty—plus or minus 2 percent, say—with doubt about the observable global changes altogether, which would be the equivalent of plus or minus 100 percent. When I express the situation with these percentages, we all can see that the deniers are obviously wrong or very much misled. The deniers often suggest that there is a worldwide conspiracy of scientists out to drive coal miners out of work. A conspiracy? Of 30,000 scientists? Have you ever spent any time with those people? It’s just not reasonable. Yet a large fraction of us has gone along with deniers hardly questioning their inane argument and obstructionist policy proposals.

Climate denial is generational. Very few young people embrace those silly ideas. But what about the future? The kids? We cannot let them down.

Things change; the world changes. My grandfather went into World War I on a horse. He was, by all accounts, a skilled horseman. He rode around trenches, in the dark, and under enemy fire. But very few soldiers today need that skill. Today, the tasks and jobs needed to conduct a war have changed. In analogous fashion, a great many jobs will change. People in the extraction industries—those who mine coal or drill for oil and gas—today will one day soon be doing something else in the energy sector: welding wind turbine masts, manufacturing photovoltaic systems, or connecting neighbors to the Internet. We can do this. We can change the world.

In a month, a consortium of for-profit and not-for-profit organizations will open an amusement park with a religious theme in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. You may have heard about their activities. The Answers in Genesis ministry preaches that the discovery of evolution was and is somehow not real—and more urgently, they insist that our world is not warming. They promote this fiction among their followers.

To work at their Creation Museum or at their soon-to-open Ark Encounter bible-literal theme park, you have to testify to your faith in their faith. That might seem like a violation of our first amendment, which you can read from the original text just a few blocks east of here at the National Archives.

And, to finance these attractions, the organization apparently relies on a consortium of legal entities. Answers in Genesis is the main nonprofit. The Creation Museum LLC charges admission; it’s a for-profit entity. The Ark Encounter LLC is an amusement park and is also a for-profit. But you may not hear much about another not-for-profit corporation: Crosswater Canyon, Inc. The “ministry,” as it’s called, uses Crosswater Canyon to get tax breaks. Their extraordinary claim is that this Ark Park is nominally a tourist attraction. Even though it has a completely, relentlessly religious mission, it is viewed—by the governor, his tourism cabinet, and a judge of the U.S. Eastern Kentucky District Court—as existing entirely for tourists. They claim the park will attract tourists of all denominations and beliefs and so is thereby entitled to tax breaks and virtually free real estate from Kentucky and her taxpayers. Answers in Genesis claims religious affiliation when it wants to discriminate in hiring and not-for-profit status when it wants to avoid paying taxes. While the entities of the consortium have passed legal tests in Kentucky, that happened only because the governor, the tourism cabinet members, and a key judge are all believers. They accept that their religion is not separated from their state or commonwealth, as it would be under other circumstances. I’ll give Kentuckians a critical thinker’s example: Imagine if the consortium were about to open something like the Mosque Kiosk, an amusement park or tourist attraction designed to promote the Muslim faith. Such a project would be quashed at once and by the very same officials who are enabling these biblical businesses to thrive.

To those of us here at the Reason Rally, doing our best to be reasonable, this would otherwise be a charming, if silly, bit of Americana. Something foreigners would shake their heads at. Something people in Kentucky universities and colleges in the surrounding area would apologize for continually. And that would be about that. However, there is something very much at stake here—the future.

I’m talking about the kids. If we raise a second generation of people within driving distance of these facilities—Kentuckians, Ohioans, Illinoisans, Indianans, West Virginians, and Tennesseans—who cannot think for themselves, we are all going to pay the price. We are all going to be burdened with reeducating and enlightening these kids and young adults. And just think about the economy in those areas. The workers in these nearby economies will not have been brought up with philosophical traditions, the processes of science and reason that help us all understand the world. I am certain the kids will not grow up with the tradition of innovation we and others expect from our citizens, who create search engines, smart phones, and electric sports cars.

I say this, because along with this consortium’s weird lack of understanding of biology, geology, and astronomy, this consortium promotes the idea that the world is not warming—that a deity will ensure that everything is fine despite the overwhelming, astonishing, and very troubling evidence to the contrary. So while it is a good feeling to be among like-minded people here at the Rally, there are troubles ahead unless we act this year.

I claim—and please evaluate my claim for yourselves—that this year is a turning point for us, for us humans. If we stumble forward and elect a climate change denier to be the United States president along with a cohort of deniers in other government roles, the entire world is headed for big global warming climate change trouble. If we delay another four or eight years, it will be difficult indeed for millions, perhaps hundreds of millions, of us to ever achieve a quality of life that you and I have come to expect in the twenty-first century. And by the twenty-second century, virtually all of humankind could be suffering deeply.

As this summer of 2016 unfolds, I acknowledge the possibility that an insecure, confused, and currently conservative man may, by reluctant default, become the most influential man on Earth in January of next year. If this happens, I’m sure a strong majority of us, conservative and progressive alike, would be very, very concerned for our future. What would we do?

Over the last few weeks, I’ve often reflected on a joke we used to share at Boeing. I used to work there—on 747s. Don’t worry; I was very well supervised. The joke was about the fictional B-3 bomber. It would be flown by a pilot and a pit-bull. The pilot is there to watch the instruments; the dog is there to make sure that the pilot doesn’t touch anything! If the current conservative presumptive nominee gets elected in November, I have a feeling we will all have to work like pit-bulls to make sure that when it comes to the U.S. government, he doesn’t touch anything.

By the way everyone, you have to vote. For those of you who may believe that no candidate running for president right now is worthy of you, and so you will choose to not vote, would you please just sit down and shut up? So the rest of us, who do want to participate, can vote and get things done.

With all this, I acknowledge that we here at this gathering are a small minority. Although the fraction of our society that embraces reason over unreasonable claims, that embraces critical thinking over baseless anecdote and science over anti-science, is growing, we must all keep in mind that we are a minority, underdogs in the fight for reason. When my grandfather was a young man, there were fewer than one and half billion people on Earth. When I was a kid, there were fewer than three billion. Today there are well over 7.3 billion. And the overwhelming majority of these—six billion at least—are deeply religious. But it is no trouble to find common ground when the environment of the Earth is at stake. The pope’s recent encyclical stands out as a commonsense assessment of our planet and its future.

As I often say, if you like to worry about things, you’re living at a great time. We have suicide bombers, deadly drone missions, and now the Zika virus. It’s very reasonable that more than a few of us have been infected here today. But, it’s also a time in which we could be very optimistic. Reasonable studies by engineers and policy analysts have shown that there is enough renewable energy available to run all of this country, our neighbors to the north and south, and even the entire world if we just decided to do it. The sources of energy would be wind, concentrated sunlight, photovoltaic electricity, with some geothermal and tidal energy mixed in. The big potential source of energy here in the Eastern Time Zone, by the way, is wind off of our east coast. We could do it, if we just decided to get ’er done.

And for those of you who may be very skeptical of this claim, who think that we couldn’t get it done, couldn’t get renewable sources in place quickly, I give you this critically thought-through example. Both of my parents were in World War II; their ashes are interred across the river in the Arlington National Cemetery. My father was a prisoner of war captured very early in the war, in 1941 by the Japanese military from Wake Island. My mother, who I will admit was very good at puzzles, was recruited to work on the notorious enigma code. They were part of what came to be called the Greatest Generation. They didn’t set out to be great. They played the hand they were dealt, and in barely five years resolved a global conflict. So must we. We must employ critical thinking and our powers of reason to recognize the problems of global climate change, play the hand we are being dealt, and get to work.

This summer, let’s all work to promote reason. Let’s remind our fellow citizens that each and every vote matters. Let’s acknowledge and embrace the facts of global climate change. Let’s go. With critical thinking and reason, we can find common ground. We can promote policies to reduce carbon emissions. We can develop and distribute what we need to provide clean water, reliable electricity, and access to electronic information to everyone on Earth. Together, we can change the world.

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