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The Ghost Behind You

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In one of Baghdad’s neighborhoods, which is known for its violence and widespread folk beliefs, Ameer wanted to visit his acquaintances’ house during the night but he was afraid since the fight that they had in the last week. He walked down the road but there was something strange, he felt that there is someone following him in every step; this “presence” was to his left back side. Whenever Ameer stopped, this presence stopped. Ameer reports, “It was so strange feeling; I wasn’t afraid of it but I was afraid that there is someone following me who wants harm to me. So I turned my head to look at it, but there was nothing! Strangely this ‘presence’ didn’t make any sound while moving behind me. I can describe it as a dwarf, a female dwarf. I told my family about it and they said it is one of the ‘Jinn’ called the ‘Taba’a’ or the follower.”

This ghostly feeling is known as the feeling of a presence (FoP), which is the feeling of someone near you when there is no one. It is not the same as an out-of-body experience, in which the person sees his or her body from the outside, or the doppelgänger effect, in which the person sees and interacts with an exact image of him or herself.

Adam was a soldier during the Iraqi-Iranian war, and he always believed that there is a guardian angel who protects him during the battles. He was familiar with this feeling, and it gave him solace whenever he was in grief. Adam told me his story when he had a feeling different from the one he used to; he said, “One day we got a call from the command telling us that we should go into this area and take it, but all of the soldiers know what happened hours ago when more than a hundred soldiers headed toward this area and no one survived. I can remember the soldiers’ faces during that day, all of us were afraid but we can’t do anything; we must go.”

The night came; and we moved toward the destination and when we got there, we were shocked because of the scene. Soon enough, the bullets were flying passed us and everyone panicked. I bent and hid behind the body of someone who died before me. Several minutes and I felt there is someone lying beside me other than my guardian angel; I was afraid of this ‘spirit’ and from the enemy, but I stayed there until the support came and we didn’t lose our spirits as this poor soldier.”

There are many accounts of such experiences occurring during times of stress, dehydration, oxygen deprivation, and extreme weather. McDonald Critchley reports similar experiences of soldiers during the World War II. One of these stories is of two sailors whose ship was destroyed so they had to get to the land by a rubber boat. They sensed the presence of third person with them during their journey. Also Critchely mentions the story of a woman, who has shrunken parietal lobes, when she woke up at night to feel the presence of someone standing beside her bed, and after several minutes she realized that there is no one but herself.

The Ghost in the Brain

The feeling of a presence occurs in several psychiatric and neurological conditions such as schizophrenia, epilepsy, brain trauma, and other conditions. It is thought that FoP parallels what happens in schizophrenics who hear voices and attribute them to external sources while, in reality, these voices are generated in their own minds but they failed to identify them. This misidentification also occurs in FoP when the individual fails to identify him or herself and attribute this to others.

The neural basis of FoP was identified recently when a group of scientist probed the brains of twelve subjects (eleven with epilepsy and one with parasitic infection) who experienced FoP. The scientist used fMRI, EEG, and electrodes to map the lesions in brain and they identified three brain regions responsible for this feeling and they are: Temproparietal junction, Frontoparietal cortex, and the insular cortex. What makes these areas special is the interconnectedness among them in addition to the presence of an area called “Broadmann area 7” in the frontoparietal cortex, which is responsible of mapping the personal and interpersonal spaces, which is highly correlated with FoP.

In one experiment, the scientists induced FoP in a patient with epilepsy who was undergoing surgery to control his epilepsy. During the surgery, surgeons use electrodes to map out the functional areas and avoid them, and while doing that, they stimulated the temporoparietal junction, which led to strong feeling of a presence. This feeling happened due to disturbance multisensory signals processing in the TPJ. The next step was to induce this feeling in healthy subjects, and that’s when they used robots.

Most of the people are now familiar with the rubber hand illusion, in which the subject is asked to put his hand under the table and to look at the rubber hand on the table while the experimenter stroke the two hands simultaneously. After several minutes, the experimenter stabs the rubber hand with a needle and the anxiety on the subject’s face can be easily noticed. This disturbance in sensory signals processing is limited to one part of the body, which is the hand; but what will happen if the disruption involved all the body?

The researchers used a robot with an arm that can be moved in the forward direction. At the same time, there is an arm to stroke the subject on the back. After several trials, the subjects felt their bodies being displaced forward but why does this happen? This happens because the brain tries to make sense of conflicting signals (moving the arm forward and being stroked from the back). Next, the researchers break the synchrony of the two arms and introduced 500 milliseconds as a delay interval. In this condition, the subjects felt being displaced backwards, and some of them experienced FoP.

Studying this phenomenon may help us to explain the hallucinations that occur in various conditions, and it might help those who experience them. Most importantly, studying FoP brings it from the paranormal and its explanations to science.



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Addressing the Fear-Based Narrative Around GMOs with Natalie Newell

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Natalie Newell is the director and producer of the Science Moms documentary that will be shown at CSICon on Saturday, October 28 at 11:00 a.m. She is also one of the hosts of the Science Enthusiast Podcast.



Susan Gerbic: Hello Natalie! Thank you so much for giving me a bit of your time today. Can you please give readers a bit of an introduction to yourself?

Natalie Newell: Glad to “meet” you! To think of things that are relevant to why you’re talking to me today… I’m the creator and director of the “Science Moms” documentary, which I’m so excited to have premiere at CSICon! This was my first big undertaking in the world of science and skepticism, after being more of a casual observer since my college years. My professional background is in the field of Montessori education, and my work with fellow parents in the school setting was one of the inspirations for making my film.

Gerbic: You are one of the cohosts of The Science Enthusiast Podcast with Dan Broadbent. Scrolling through your past episodes, I see names of several of my favorite skeptics. I’ve just subscribed to the show and now I’m wondering if I should just start at the beginning and try and catch up. What are some of your favorite interviews?

Newell: You could start at the beginning and listen to the slightly more rambling versions of me and Dan from a year ago, or you could skip around to some of my favorite episodes. I think we started finding our footing a few episodes in, when we interviewed Grant Ritchey about dental woo but ended up getting into an interesting discussion about effective science communication. It’s tough to pick “favorite” guests, because we’ve been fortunate enough to talk to so many brilliant people, but I’d recommend checking out our episodes with Shaun Sellars, David Gorski, Eli Bosnick, Cara Santa Maria, Callie Wright, Michael Marshall, and Vance Crowe.

Gerbic: I’m really curious about why you call yourselves “The Science Enthusiast Podcast” but on your about page you say you are “Just the right amount of not-a-science-podcast! … skepticism, religion, and politics as they relate to science, medicine, and rational thought.” Most skeptic and science podcasts veer away from politics and religion. How are you making this work for you?

Newell: Dan and I are open about our atheism, and decided, especially in the wake of Trump’s election, that we wanted to tackle the way that politics, religion, and science can impact each other. These are topics that we’ve always discussed with each other, so it felt natural to make our podcast reflect who we are. Our audience has come to expect this level of honest discussion from us, so we’re continuing to move forward in this direction.

Gerbic: I also want to know about the logo with the cat wearing glasses. Aren’t you getting a lot of hate mail from the “equal rights for dogs” world?

Newell: The Internet loves cats, so we went for a nerdy cat for the podcast logo. I’m pretty sure that Dan is ignoring all of the hate mail from the dog lovers out there. (Full disclosure: I have a pug and don’t consider myself a cat person.)

Gerbic: You will be speaking at CSICon Saturday, October 28 at 11:00 a.m. with Kavin Senapathy. The topic is called “Science Moms” Apparently you will be showing us a movie that interviews mothers who are science-minded. Very clever; I haven’t heard of someone doing this before. Can you please tell us about this movie, and how it came about?

Newell: A couple years ago, I stumbled upon a letter written by a group of science-minded moms, addressing the fear-based narrative around GMOs. They challenged celebrities such as Gwyneth Paltrow and Sarah Michelle Gellar to rethink their vocal stance against GMOs. As a parent myself, I was so excited to see a group of intelligent, reasonable women taking a stand for science and evidence. Literally the next day, I wrote a short proposal for a documentary film and sent it off to Jenny Splitter and Kavin Senapathy to see if they’d be interested. They were, and then we got Alison Bernstein, Layla Katiraee, and Anastasia Bodnar on board, and “Science Moms” was born.

Gerbic: What is the ultimate goal of the movie? Who is it aimed at? Is this something to be shown in a classroom?

Newell: The goal of the movie is to provide a counter-narrative to the anti-GMO, anti-vax, pro-alternative medicine culture that has popped up in the world of parenting. There’s so much misinformation out there that I think it’s important to have a group of intelligent, personable, badass women bust some of the common myths people are encountering. I’d love to see this film screened at conferences, universities, parenting groups, local libraries—anywhere, really. I think that critical thinking is so important, and if this film could be a springboard for that, I think we will have succeeded.

Gerbic: You just came back from NECSS and interacted with some amazing speakers. CSICon will be equally fun, even more so because most of us are all staying in the same location, the Excalibur Hotel and Casino. What are you looking forward to at CSICon? What lectures are you really looking forward to?

Newell: This will be my first CSICon, and I feel so excited and grateful to be part of this line-up of amazing speakers. I’m especially looking forward to the talks by Britt Hermes, Harriet Hall, and David Gorski and am also looking forward to the time spent meeting and hanging out with fellow speakers and conference attendees. I think one of the best parts of these conferences is the time spent getting to know people that maybe you’ve only interacted with in the space of social media.

Gerbic: There will be a zombie disco party on Saturday night. Are you working on your costume already?

Newell: Kavin and I have already been talking about potential costume ideas!

Gerbic: I look forward to seeing what you two come up with. Thank you, Natalie, for your time. Really looking forward to meeting you in person and watching “Bad Ass Women” kick some pseudoscience around the stage.

Readers, if you haven’t got your tickets to CSICon yet, you need to get on it; this will sell-out. In 2016, the venue was almost filled, and this year the numbers are showing to be higher than normal. So, register soon. Follow the CSICon Facebook group page to be able to meet other attendees and learn where people are hanging out.

Follow the CSICon Facebook Group

Fire-Breathing Dinosaurs?

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Mainstream geologists and biologists accept the abundant physical evidence that the Earth is billions of years old; that all organisms are evolutionary descendants of a common ancestor; and that non-avian dinosaurs became extinct sixty-five million years ago (e.g., Gradstein et al. 2004; Prothero 2007). In contrast, young-Earth creationist (YEC) authors have long maintained that the Genesis account of creation and the biblical timeline are literally correct, placing the creation of the Earth and all types of organisms at approximately 6,000 years ago. A corollary of this position is that dinosaurs and humans were created on the same day and must therefore have encountered each other. The claim that dragon legends are based on such encounters has long been a 
mainstay of YEC literature, and in 1977, biochemist and YEC author Duane Gish took this concept up a notch in his children’s book Dinosaurs, Those Terrible Lizards, by positing that dinosaurs breathed fire. Other YEC authors followed suit (see references below), and dinosaurs now breathe fire in seventh-grade biology textbooks from BJU Press (Batdorf and Porch 2013; Lacy 2013).


 In support of the idea that a real animal can produce fire, Gish (1977) cited the defense mechanism of bombardier beetles (Brachinus spp.), which spray a mixture of hydrogen peroxide and hydroquinone into the faces of would-be predators. Chemical catalysts cause the mixture to reach a scalding 100º C (Aneshansley et al. 1969). Subsequent YEC authors followed Gish’s lead and added imaginary details such as sparks or explosions or flame (Phillips 1994; Hamp 2000; Isaacs 2010; Paul 2010). In reality, the beetles merely spray hot liquid—which scalds but does not produce flame—and therefore provide no biological precedent for organic fire production.


 Some YEC authors have cited bioluminescent animals and electric eels as biological precedent for fire production (Morris 1984; Petersen 1986; Morris 1988; Niermann 1994; Morris 1999; DeYoung 2000; Petersen 2002). However, the processes that produce bioluminescence (Haddock et al. 2010) and bioelectrogenesis (Pough et al. 2013) are chemically unrelated to combustion and generate little or no thermal energy. These processes are therefore irrelevant to fire production and provide no biological precedent for it.


 Proponents of the fire-breathing dinosaur hypothesis have suggested a number of potential mechanisms of fire production, reviewed below, each of which is a separate hypothesis in its own right. Below, I use scientific data to evaluate each hypothesis. Each such hypothesis implicitly predicts that the mechanism is not only physically possible but that it will not cause serious injury to the animal. Each hypothesis is falsified if either of those predictions is not met.

Exhalation of Pyrophoric Gas


 Henry Morris (1984) and James Gilmer (2011) suggested that a fire-producing reptile could breathe out gases that would ignite upon contact with oxygen. A substance that ignites upon contact with air is said to be pyrophoric. When released into air from a container, a pyrophoric gas explodes after traveling only a few centimeters or millimeters from the opening. The wider the opening, the nearer to it the explosion occurs. For example, the pyrophoric gas silane (SiH4) generates an explosion 5–80 mm from the mouth of a tube 4.32 mm in diameter and 5–30 mm from the mouth of a tube 3.5 mm in diameter (Tsai et al. 2010). Given this, a pyrophoric gas released from the nostril or throat of a large dinosaur—an opening greater than a few millimeters in diameter—would have exploded immediately (Figure 1), burning the animal’s face or throat. The serious harm that this would have caused the animal falsifies this fire-production hypothesis.


 The hypothesis could be tenable if the nostrils were protected by a fire-resistant tissue, but animals produce no such tissue. Many animals produced heavily keratinized epidermal derivatives (hair, feathers, horn sheaths, etc.) that protect from abrasion, but these burn when exposed to fire, as do cuticles of collagen or chitin. If dinosaur snouts produced a protective, nonflammable, mineral covering (e.g., calcium carbonate or calcium phosphate), this covering would have fossilized, as is usual with hard animal parts. No such covering is present on the snout of any dinosaur fossil.

Ignition of Belched Methane


 Herbivorous mammals emit large eructations (belches) of methane daily, averaging twenty-six per hour in cattle and forty-two per hour in sheep (Colvin et al. 1958; Ulyatt et al. 1999; Koch et al. 2009). John Morris (1999) suggested that herbivorous dinosaurs did likewise and secreted a pyrophoric material from a gland to ignite the belched methane.


 However, once liberated from a container (such as a dinosaur’s oral or nasal cavity), a gas immediately spreads in all directions; the methane would quickly surround the dinosaur’s head. The pyrophoric gas would not only produce a nasal or oral burn as it emerged but would also ignite the cloud of methane-infused air around the animal’s head, burning the surface of the head in the resulting fireball (Figure 1). The serious harm that this would have caused falsifies this fire-production hypothesis.


 Human cases confirm that ignition of combustible belches causes facial burns. Eructation in humans usually involves the emission of swallowed air, which is methane-free and is not combustible. However, in adult cases of pyloric stenosis, combustible gases can accumulate in the stomach due to the fermentation of food in the stomach when passage to the duodenum is obstructed. When a patient belches those gases while smoking, the lit cigarette ignites the gases, and the resulting fireball causes facial burns (Galley 1954; MacDonald 1994).

Ignition of Methane by an Electric Organ


 Several fish species have electric organs made of modified muscle cells called electrocytes, which are arranged in series so that their voltages are summed (Gallant et al. 2014; Sillar et al. 2016). Most electric fish species generate weak, harmless pulses that are used to navigate, detect other fishes, and convey social signals (Lissmann 1958; Sillar et al. 2016). In contrast, electric eels (Electrophorus electricus) and torpedo rays (Torpedo spp.) produce pulses strong enough to stun prey (Sillar et al. 2016) or to cause serious harm or death to humans (Copenhaver 1991; Carlson 2015).


 DeYoung (2000) and Gilmer (2011) proposed that dinosaurs possessed an electric organ, as in the electric eel, and used it to generate a spark to ignite metabolically produced methane. However, as we have seen, ignition of belched methane would envelop the animal’s head in a fireball. Also, electric organs do not produce sparks.


 A spark is an electrical discharge into air. The permittivity (a measure of how easily electric current flows through a material) of air and of methane are both low, approximately 1.0 (Wohlfarth 2013), whereas that of water is over 60 (Harvey 2013). For this reason, current generated by an electric fish travels easily through water or through biological tissue—which is mostly water—but not through air or methane. Because electrical current follows the path of least resistance, current flowing from one part of an animal to another will flow through the animal’s tissues and will not jump an air-filled or methane-filled gap between body parts as a spark. For example, if a dinosaur had sufficient voltage between its upper and lower jaws for an electrical current to flow from one jaw to the other and the dinosaur opened its mouth and belched some methane, no spark would leap into the methane cloud; instead, the current would flow from one jaw to the other through the dinosaur’s jaw muscles. There would be no spark, flame, or any other visible evidence that the electrical event had occurred (Figure 1). This fire-production hypothesis is therefore falsified.

Figure 1. The lambeosaurine dinosaur Corythosaurus casuarius, showing hypothesized mechanisms of fire production in dinosaurs and the results that would occur in a real animal. Note that some proposed mechanisms would cause harm to the animal, and the others would not actually produce fire.

Ignition of Fuel by a Spark Produced by Friction


 Gilmer (2011) hypothesized that a dinosaur could use friction to produce a spark to ignite a combustible gas such as methane “in the mouth, throat, [or] internal organs.” However, no animal produces a material that creates sparks in response to friction. The tough materials that animal bodies make—calcium phosphate, calcium carbonate, chitin, and keratinized integumentary derivatives—do not spark when rubbed together. Flint, which produces sparks when rubbed together, is a form of silica (SiO2), a chemical that some microbes can precipitate (Erlich and Newman 2009). However, even if flint-producing microbes inhabited dinosaur mouths or throats, any methane ignited there would explode there, causing serious internal injury.


 Internal organs are anoxic environments and therefore do not allow flame production. The one exception to this rule is the respiratory tract, but flame generated here causes severe injuries or death (Wöllmer et al. 2010). Even the digestive tract has too little O2 gas in it to support flame (Levy 1954; Cunha et al. 2011) (Figure 1). This hypothesis is therefore falsified.

Emission of a Hypergolic Pair of Chemicals


 Isaacs (2010), Batdorf and Porch (2013), and Lacy (2013) hypothesized that dinosaurs could produce fire by emitting a pair of chemicals that would ignite in the air upon contact with each other, after being sprayed from the mouth or nose. A pair of chemicals that spontaneously ignite when combined, without a separate ignition source, is termed hypergolic. A hypergolic pair of chemicals includes a fuel chemical and an oxidizing chemical. Numerous hypergolic pairs of chemicals are known, but most such chemicals are man-made and either do not occur in nature or—as in the case of liquid oxygen—must be chilled to temperatures that animal bodies cannot withstand. The two exceptions are hydrogen peroxide (an oxidizer) and ammonia (a fuel), both of which are produced by organisms. However, the fuels with which hydrogen peroxide is hypergolic—kerosene, pentaborane, or mixtures including hydrazine plus methanol (Sutton 2006)—are extremely toxic to organisms. Likewise, the oxidizers with which ammonia is hypergolic—liquid oxygen and liquid fluorine (Sutton 2006)—have boiling points too low (-183 ºC and -188 ºC, respectively [Compressed Gas Association 1990; Hammond 2013]) for organisms to withstand their presence as liquids. There is therefore no known hypergolic pair of chemicals the production of which organisms can withstand.


 Furthermore, emission of a pair of hypergolic chemicals would harm the animal if one or both chemicals were gaseous. Because a gas diffuses in all directions immediately upon release, a pair of gaseous hypergols would surround the dinosaur’s head and envelop it in a fireball as they reacted with each other. If one hypergol were gaseous and the other liquid, then upon release the gaseous hypergol would immediately spread in all directions and reach the liquid hypergol’s point of exit from the body, burning the animal in that location. These versions of the hypergol hypothesis are therefore falsified.


 If both chemicals were liquid, they would have to be sprayed at such angles that the two streams would converge sufficiently far from the animal not to burn it. However, this version of the hypothesis is nonetheless falsified by the lack of any pair of hypergolic chemicals the presence of both of which animal bodies can withstand.

Lambeosaurine Dinosaur Crests


 The duckbilled dinosaurs of the subfamily Lambeosaurinae had hollow crests, and in several YEC publications—including seventh-grade biology textbooks published by BJU Press (Batdorf and Porch 2013; Lacy 2013)—these crests are interpreted as storage or mixing chambers for combustible gases (Gish 1977; Petersen 1986; Morris 1988; Niermann 1994; DeYoung 2000; Petersen 2002). However, the crests’ hollow passages are part of the respiratory tract (Evans et al. 2009). Anything stored or mixed there would have obstructed airflow, causing suffocation. In addition, the left and right passages are separate, which precludes mixing, except in a rear compartment that housed the olfactory epithelium (Evans et al. 2009). Anything mixed and combusted there would have destroyed the animal’s sense of smell in addition to causing internal burns (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Corythosaurus casuarius, showing hypothesized combustion-related functions for the crest. Note that all proposed functions would cause harm to the animal.


 Connected to each of the left and right nasal passages in the lambeosaurine skull is a lateral diverticulum, a blind sac extending upward from the nasal cavity (Evans et al. 2009) (Figure 2). The diverticulum is lateral to the airway, so that a gland or storage facility housed there would not obstruct the airway. However, in today’s archosaurs (crocodilians and birds), diverticula from the nasal passages house only air, not glands or storage structures (Witmer 1997; Witmer and Ridgely 2008). Furthermore, fire-production methods involving lambeosaurine lateral diverticula would have injured the animal. If the lateral diverticula housed glands that released pyrophoric chemicals into the air in the respiratory passages, this would have generated combustion inside the crest (Figure 2), causing internal burns. If a duct conducted pyrophoric chemicals to the nostril, ensuring that combustion occurred outside the crest, the tissue around the nostril would suffer burns (Figure 2). If each lateral diverticulum housed a gland that produced one of a pair of hypergolic gases, then upon exiting the nostrils the gases would diffuse in all directions and combust, enveloping the animal’s snout (or possibly the entire head) in a fireball.


 If each lateral diverticulum housed a gland that produced one of a pair of hypergolic liquids rather than gases, and if ducts conducted the liquids to the nostrils, and if the liquids were projected by muscular squeezing, and if the two streams of liquid converged far enough beyond the snout to avoid burning it when the two streams contacted each other and ignited, then the animal might have avoided injury. However, there is no bony indication of the presence of the requisite glands, ducts, or muscles in the lambeosaurine skull (Evans et al. 2009). Moreover, there is no pair of hypergolic chemicals for which animal bodies can withstand the production of both. This hypothesis is therefore falsified.

Cartilaginous Blasting Caps?


 Isaacs (2010) hypothesized that dinosaurs possessed a “chunk of cartilage” that extended beyond the bony snout, as in mammals, and “may have housed a mixing region for chemicals and oxygen used for combustion.” However, nasal cartilages do not host fire-production mechanisms in known animals. More important, if a cartilaginous “chunk” hosted combustion, the structure would have suffered burns, which falsifies this hypothesis.

Other Mesozoic Reptiles


 Booker (2005) hypothesized that the enlarged cavity at the tip of the snout of the Cretaceous crocodyliform Sarcosuchus housed a fire source. Wieland (2005) and Paul (2010) suggested that the cavity was used to mix combustible gases. In seventh-grade biology textbooks, Batdorf and Porch (2013) and Lacy (2013) also implied that the cavity was used in fire production.


 The appearance of an enlarged cavity at the tip of the snout in adult Sarcosuchus is due to developmental widening of the snout. In Sarcosuchus, juveniles are narrow-snouted, and the entire length of the snout widens during development, so that the snout tip is widened not by itself but along with the rest of the snout (Sereno et al. 2001) (Figure 3). The wide adult snout tip is therefore developmentally related to the width of the snout as a whole, not to any special function of the snout tip. Narrow-snouted crocodilians eat fishes nearly exclusively, whereas medium- and wide-snouted species are generalist predators with diets that include large prey (McHenry et al. 2006). The change in snout proportions in Sarcosuchus is therefore functionally related to a dietary switch as the animal grew.

Figure 3. Snouts of juvenile (left) and adult (right) Sarcosuchus imperator in dorsal view, showing that the great width of the nostril in the adult is an artifact of ontogenetic widening of the entire snout. Modified from Sereno et al. (2001).


 The widening of the snout, in combination with the lack of a bony internarial bar between the nostrils, yields the illusion of an enlarged cavity at the snout tip in Sarcosuchus. Most extant crocodilian species also lack a bony internarial bar and instead possess a soft-tissue septum that separates the nostrils (Iordansky 1973). There is no reason to suspect otherwise in Sarcosuchus, so a single, enlarged cavity is very unlikely in the fleshed-out animal. Even if it had existed, production of fire within it would have burned the animal, which falsifies this hypothesis.


 Gilmer (2011) hypothesized that the crests of “some pterosaurs, such as the Pteranodon” “could store flammable gas . . . for use on demand.” This hypothesis is anatomically unrealistic; in some crested pterosaurs it is possible that the crest contained air-filled diverticula of the nasal cavity or the middle ear cavity (Bennett 2001), but the crests are extremely thin in cross-section, with insufficient room for storage, and in extant archosaurs the nasal diverticula contain only air (Witmer 1997; Witmer and Ridgely 2008). Furthermore, in Pteranodon itself, there is no indication that the frontal bone, which makes up the entire crest, is invaded by nasal diverticula in the first place (Bennett 2001). This hypothesis is therefore falsified.

The Real Origin of Dragon Legends


 The biological reality behind the origin of dragon legends has long been known. The word dragon is derived from the ancient Greek δράκων (drakōn) and the Latin draco, both of which meant “serpent.” Many ancient Greek and Roman artifacts depict drakōn/draco myths, in all of which the depicted animal is a snake (Ogden 2013; Senter 2013). Greek and Roman works of natural history described the drakōn/draco as a snake. Some such works restricted the term to large, nonvenomous constrictors, especially the Aesculapian snake (Zamenis longissima) or African and Indian pythons (Senter 2013; Senter et al. 2016).


 European dragon lore evolved in the Middle Ages. Rumors that dragons could fly and could produce fire had begun by the fifth century (Senter et al. 2016). By the tenth century, dragons were routinely depicted with feathered wings and a pair of limbs (Temple 1976; Mittman 2006). Depiction of dragons as quadrupeds with bat-like wings began in the thirteenth century and became common during the Renaissance (Allen and Griffiths 1979; Benton 1992; Absalon and Canard 2006; Morrison 2007). By the time nineteenth-century naturalists gave dinosaurs their first scientific descriptions, European artists had been regularly portraying dragons with an uncannily dinosaurian or pterosaurian appearance for about four centuries. Speculation that human encounters with these animals had inspired dragon legends naturally followed, and YEC literature now routinely portrays dinosaurs as fire-breathers. But as shown here, that is unrealistic, and its continuance in science textbooks is downright irresponsible.



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Why We Often Get Risks Wrong

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Getting Risk Right: Understanding the Science of Elusive Health Risks. By Geoffrey C. Kabat. Columbia University Press, New York, 2016. ISBN 9 780231 166461. 272 pp. Hardcover, $35.00.



Geoffrey Kabat devoted his previous book, Hyping Health Risks: Environmental Hazards in Daily Life and the Science of Epidemiology (Columbia University Press 2008, reviewed in the July/August 2009 SI) to debunking overblown claims of risks of various environmental agents such as environmental causes of breast cancer on Long Island and radon and electromagnetic fields as causative agents in cancer. In his new book, Kabat goes beyond simple debunking and sets himself a much more ambitious task: “Two questions at the heart of this book are, first, how is it that extraordinary progress is made in solving certain problems, whereas in other areas little progress is made, and, second, why do instances of progress get so little attention, while those issues that gain attention often tend to be scientifically questionable?” (p. 27).

In the first three chapters, Kabat writes about how investigations of claimed risks sometimes get it right and uncover the actual causes of real risks versus investigations of non-risks that end up causing much unneeded anxiety and wasting large sums of research funds and researchers’ time and effort. The last four chapters are case studies of specific investigations. Two of these investigations resulted, through careful and arduous medical detective work, in uncovering the real causes of a very puzzling disease in one case and a type of cancer in the other. The other two case studies are of investigations of environmental agents—cell phones and endocrine disruptors—that went badly off the rails and continue to unduly alarm the public and consume research time and money that could be much better used studying actual risks.

The book starts with a brief introductory chapter, “The Illusion of Validity and the Power of ‘Negative Thinking.’” The second chapter, “The Splendors and Miseries of Associations,” begins with a discussion of basic concepts in epidemiology. It emphasizes the complexity of teasing apart causation when causation is a complex network of interacting variables. This could have been a bit clearer in places. For example, saying that “If two variables are correlated, as one increases, the other increases” (p. 14) ignores the existence of negative correlations. The chapter highlights the work of John Ioannidis, whose 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings are False” (PLoS Medicine 2005, 2, e124) caused much controversy when it appeared. The paper applied to medical research, not to other areas of scientific studies. The paper was often thought to be an attack on biomedical research in general, arguing that medical research really couldn’t contribute to distinguishing between what was or was not risky or beneficial.

In actuality, Ioannidis’s paper was highly critical of the ease with which sloppy research was published in even fairly prestigious medical journals. This problem is most evident, in the context of Kabat’s book, in the ease with which papers were, and still are, published claiming that substance x has some sort of harmful environmental effects—sometimes, to some people, somewhere. This creates the “toxic terror de jour” type of reporting in the popular media that is so common. Kabat and Ioannidis argue that different scientific disciplines within biomedicine have very different levels of tolerance for bad research. Studies of the genetic contributions to disease have “become extremely rigorous owing to agreed-on standards for large populations and the requirement for replication” (p. 24). Epidemiology, on the other hand, is plagued with hordes of small studies reporting “it-might-maybe” be dangerous sorts of results with relatively small samples and poor study design and analyses. This, it seems to me, is due to journal editors’ far too lax criteria for accepting studies for publication.

An excellent example of such lax publication standards is a study that appeared while I was composing this review. D. Leslie et al. published “Temporal Association of Certain Neuropsychiatric Disorders Following Vaccination of Children and Adolescents: A Case-Control Study” in Frontiers in Psychiatry: Child and Adolescent Psychiatry (2017, 00003). This study looked at the risk of seven different psychiatric disorders. Autism was not included, although Robert F. Kennedy, the well known autism crank, has been singing the praises of this study as evidence for a vaccine-autism link. Presumably, as controls, the risk of broken bones and open wounds were also included. Seven different vaccination types were examined, each at three different times post-vaccination. This resulted in a grand total of 189 computed risk or hazard ratios (HRs). Sure enough, some of these comparisons resulted in HRs of greater than one, presumably indicative of a risk. Of the 148 HRs for the different psychiatric disorders, forty-one were significant. Of these, thirty-one were above one. The remaining ten were below one, suggesting that vaccines protected against a particular disorder. There were also a few (eleven to be exact) significant HRs in the results for broken bones and open wounds. Parents the world over will be happy to learn that vaccination against varicella protects, at three months, against broken bones. No attempt was made in this study to correct the significance levels of the HRs for the number of comparisons made. Had this paper been handed in to me when I taught an introductory statistics class, it would have received a failing grade. And yet it got through the editorial process at a semi-respectable journal and was published.

In the third chapter, “When Risk Goes Viral,” Kabat discusses the reasons that studies reporting risks that may not be real, or are extremely small, are over-represented in the medical literature and then in the popular media. One obvious reason is that risks sell. They sell both newspapers and “panic de jour” reporting on TV. But now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t risks also attract funding for further research. Even if an initial report shows a minimal risk in a poorly designed study, this is an opportunity for the authors and others to get funding to further study by arguing that the risk(s) might be real and thus deserve more research to really find out, once and for all, whether the risk is real. In this context, Kabat quotes UC Irvine researcher Robert Phalen (p. 43): “It benefits us [researchers] personally to have the public be afraid, even if these risks are trivial.” When additional studies of the probably illusory risk don’t absolutely, totally, prove the risk isn’t real, well, that’s just a reason for even more funding to track down whatever variable might be responsible. Thus, some proponents of the vaccine-autism link suggest that there is a special group of autistics for which there is a link, but the link may not be found for all autistics. This is sort of like saying that the link exists only for those born on an odd numbered Monday in the third week of a month without an “r” in its name.

Kabat, again summarizing Ioannidis’s work, notes that initial reports of risks tend to have follow-up studies that report much lower risks, if any at all. The same is true of initial reports of the effectiveness of questionable therapeutic interventions. The early reports seem hopeful, even dramatic, as was seen in the eruption of enthusiasm for facilitated communication. But then, as more studies are done with better design and controls, the initial effects fade away to either nothing or to a much more modest level. This is very reminiscent of the history of studies in parapsychology. A new paradigm to study the phenomenon is developed and, gee whiz, the first studies look great. But then results fade back to chance as better studies are done. And a few years later yet another flash-in-the-pan method is trotted out and touted as once-and-for-all finally proving that ESP is real ... until it, too, withers away.

Other factors leading to continued study and hand-wringing about nonexistent or trivial risks is that humans are much more likely to be afraid of things they don’t understand and can’t control. This nicely explains the fear that power lines caused cancer back in the 1980s, a fear that has certainly not gone away even now. Related to this is another psychological factor—what Kabat terms the “availability cascade.” This is a version of the availability heuristic in which people make poor judgments about the likelihood of some event because it is easier to recall examples of that event rather than some other event. Thus people judge traveling by commercial airline as more dangerous than travel by car when just the reverse is the case. This happens because it is easier to call to memory examples of terrible airline disasters than the ninety or so people who die each and every day on America’s highways. As applied to public perception of environmental risks, Kabat cites the case of Love Canal near Buffalo, New York. This was said to be a neighborhood in which the residents were exposed to extraordinarily high levels of dangerous industrial pollution. But “only later, after years of more careful study by many scientists and agencies, did it turn out that, in fact, there was no evidence of any abnormal exposure among residents or any ill effects” (p. 54). And yet “Love Canal” is still a catchphrase for horrible environmental pollution. Kabat nicely summarizes (p. 55) why so much questionable research on risks is done and published: “Science that deals with factors that affect our health takes place in a different context from other fields of science. This is because we are all eager for tangible progress in preventing and curing disease.” This leads to an emphasis on flashy, if shallow, research that may be of little use in actually improving public health.

In the next four chapters, Kabat focuses on four specific areas of research that serve as case studies for the distinctions he has made previously. Chapter 4 is titled “Do Cell Phones Cause Brain Cancer?” The answer is no; for anyone wishing for an excellent review and discussion of the history of the claim that cell phones cause cancer and the nature of the research used to argue for that claim, this chapter alone is worth the price of the book.

Chapter 5, “Hormonal Confusion. The Contested Science of Endocrine Disruption,” does for this controversy what the previous one did for cell phones. Most people have heard the claims that the so-called endocrine disruptors, synthetic estrogens, chemicals found in many plastics and pesticides, were having deleterious effects on people, especially children. It was interesting to discover in this chapter that these chemicals are dramatically less hormonally active than many naturally occurring substances. For example, natural substances found in cabbages are about 10,000 times more “estrogen equivalent” than those found in food “contaminated” by organochloride type pesticides. Again, this chapter is an excellent review of this area of research. Kabat concludes that the controversy over the safety of trace levels of these chemicals is likely to continue, driven by the factors noted above that support continued expensive searches for wild geese that were probably not there in the first place. Continued research on this issue will result in spending much-needed funds that could be much more productively used to investigate real, and solvable, health problems.

Chapters 6 and 7 focus on two just such real health risks and the researchers who pursued the answers, solved the mysteries, and saved many lives in the process. Chapter 6 starts in Brussels in the early 1990s with an outbreak of a mysterious and very serious kidney disease. The story leads from there through Serbia, Bosnia, and Croatia and then into China. I’ll say no more for fear of spoiling the ending of the fascinating and very well-told medical detective story. Chapter 7 is also an international medical detective story. Here the issue is the relationship between viruses and cancer. Suffice it to say that the name Burkitt plays a large role, and much of the action takes place in Africa. These two chapters are tributes to dedicated medical researchers who spent much of their time out of the glare of publicity, doggedly plugging along trying to find the answers to real medical problems.

Kabat ends this excellent and informative book by calling for making better distinctions between issues that should receive attention and funding and those that should not: “There are real problems and there are false problems, that is, problems that, to the best of our knowledge, are not problems at all. Vaccines, genetically modified crops and foods, and cell phones are not threats to our well-being. We need to get better at distinguishing false problems from real problems” (p. 177).

I noted at the start of this review that Kabat set himself two goals for Getting Risk Right. He more than accomplishes both goals.

Murder by Darkness: Does Mammoth Cave’s Specter Harbor a Secret?

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If reported encounters are to be believed, Kentucky’s Mammoth Cave—the longest cave system in the world—holds an almost lost secret. Supposedly revealed “to those who have witnessed her spirit” (“Ghost Stories” 2016), a murderer’s ghost haunts the cave’s winding passageways—especially “the area known as Echo River” (Hauck 1996, 188).


The Dark Side

To understand the following ghost story, it is important to appreciate what it’s like to be in the deep recesses of any great cavern such as Mammoth Cave and have the lights turned off. The result is darkness so absolute it impresses all who have experienced it. I can attest to this not only in Mammoth and Carter caves of Kentucky but also in Carlsbad Caverns of New Mexico and many other commercial caves where this brief entertainment has become a mainstay of tours.


It once happened to me accidentally in southern Kentucky’s Sloans Valley Cave System—a “wild” (i.e., noncommercial) cave I often explored with fellow spelunkers during my undergraduate years of university. I was climbing down a well-like shaft when the carbide lamp mounted on my hard hat suddenly went out. By then an experienced cave explorer, I knew what to do and did it—without panic. (I stuck a penlight in my mouth and, nestling into the rock wall, proceeded to ream out the lamp’s brass tip and—I’m leaving out a few steps here—restored the light [Nickell 2016].)


I mention all this to prompt readers to imagine what it would be like to be left alone deep in a cave’s profound, deadly dark. Reportedly, that was the means of effecting a homicide in the great cavern in 1843, and the killer—who before her own death published a confession—has become a ghost.


‘Melissa’

This particular spirit (among a few others alleged to haunt the cave) is known only as Melissa—a young woman whose love for her tutor was not reciprocated. She sought revenge and found an opportunity to abandon him in the cave without a lamp. He was never seen again.


“Some say” that Melissa’s ghost still searches for his. “Rangers have reportedly heard a woman’s voice calling from deep within the cave’s labyrinthine passageways, as well as screams and garbled voices” (“Is Kentucky’s” 2012). However, a more experienced source insists that most of the park rangers tend to laugh away the ghost tales (“Haunted” 2016).


But again, “some say” Melissa contracted consumption. “So it is that to this day,” asserts raconteur Christopher K. Coleman (2011, 81), “visitors may still hear Melissa calling out for her lost love, her doleful refrain and her coughing telltale signs that her restless spirit roams the caverns still.” Yet again, “Others report hearing a woman whispering or weeping in the cave that they believe to be Melissa’s ghost” (“Mammoth Cave” 2016).


But how can Melissa’s ghost do any of these things—if Melissa herself never existed? Certainly, she cannot be proved real. Neither can any record be found of her tutor, said to have been a “William Beverleigh”—or indeed of anyone else who disappeared in Mammoth Cave during the 1840s period (“Mammoth Cave” 2016). And yet I did refer to the alleged female killer’s published “confession.”


Truth Unveiled


Melissa’s story, “A Tragedy of the Mammoth Cave” appeared in The Knickerbocker in February 1858. Its having been published anonymously enhanced the believability of what purported to be a woman’s first-person admission of murder. She begins:


For fifteen long years I have carried a dark secret buried in my heart, until it has worn away my life; but now that I am tottering on the brink of the grave, I am impelled to make a confession, which, tardy as it is, I hope may render more tranquil my last sad hours. The tenacious care with which I have ever guarded the knowledge of my crime is no longer necessary, for no injury can now be wrought by a disclosure which, if earlier made, would have held up my name to eternal infamy as the blackest of my sex, and brought disgrace on one of the proudest families in the land. (Blake 1858)


She goes on to tell—at some length—the story sketched earlier. End­ing her narrative, she resolves:


I am going to reenter that dark Cave, the threshold of which I have not crossed for fifteen years, and there I will patiently await the coming of that death, which I hope to me will be a blessed release. The gloom and horror to which, years ago, I doomed my victim, shall be around me when I die: for I think that perhaps from amid the silent rocks which witnessed my crime, my last prayer for forgiveness will find acceptance. (Blake 1858)


Sophisticated readers of The Knicker­­bocker narrative will recognize the anonymous confession as an obvious work of fiction. It is written at a high level of vocabulary and sentence structure. (Application of a standard readability scale [Bovee and Thill 1989] shows the writing to be at today’s college senior level.1) It is replete with poetic phrases (“Tottering on the brink of the grave,” and so on [Blake 1858, 111]), and it offers sophisticated philosophical musings: “Perhaps some of the most wholesome lessons I had ever yet learned were in the wonder and awe and knowledge of my own insignificance, which I felt in contemplating those sublime arches and mysterious caverns” (Blake 1858, 113).


Its form is narrative with plot, in this case one that begins with a situation, shifts back in time to launch the story, and, continuing apace, transforms the chronology into a causal arrangement—finally returning to the beginning situation. It uses such devices as characterization, description, foreshadowing, suspense, and verisimilitude.2

In fact, it was created by fiction writer Lillie Devereux Blake (1833–1913) who penned the fanciful piece after she and her husband Frank Umsted (whom she married in 1855) visited Mammoth Cave, traveling by train, steamer, and stagecoach (Farrell 2002, 40, 44–46).


Phenomena Explained

But if Melissa was unreal—and so likewise her surviving spirit—then how is it that people nevertheless report encountering her? Unfortunately, most such claims, along with reports of other ghosts—like that of famed cave explorer Floyd Collins, who in 1925 was trapped in nearby Sand Cave for fourteen days until he died pitiably—come to us without source or documentation. The few apparitions may be attributed to shadows from flickering lamps or spectral images that well up from the subconscious and are superimposed on the visual scene (Nickell 2012, 345). Some incidents may be made up.

Still there are frequent reports of 
“weird noises” that “are usually at­tributed to” Melissa’s ghost. What are we to make of the previously mentioned whisperings and weepings and other sounds, even “the plaintive sound of a woman calling out, as if she is searching for someone” (Coleman 2011, 80)? Can multiple ear-witnesses be mistaken? 


The fact is, hearing such expressions is common to being in caverns, as most spelunkers soon learn. Many have played the game of sitting in the dark and listening to water dripping, trickling, and murmuring. In such random background noise, we may perceive the sounds of people talking, whispering, crying, or the like. The effect is due to the neurological-psychological phenomenon known as “pareidolia”, by which the brain interprets vague images or sounds as specific ones—such as seeing pictures in clouds, finding Jesus’s face in the skillet burns on a tortilla, or hearing spoken spirit words or phrases in a ghost hunter’s recorded white noise (Nickell 2012, 351; Novella 2009).


Lessons Learned


Lillie Devereux Blake did not create the ghost of Melissa, which is not part of her narrative. However, she unwittingly provided the seeds of that very creation. At the end of her tale, when she has the murderess say that, since her crime, “I have been a constant wanderer in search of health and happiness, always in vain,” Blake helped spark the idea of Melissa’s ghost’s eternal wandering. And when the author has Melissa state, “I shall have buried myself in a living tomb,” she has helped set the stage for a perpetually grieving, searching spirit.


Credulous believers in ghosts—unable to discern that “Melissa’s” story was fiction—were quick to find, in her apparent confession, confirmation of their superstitious beliefs. They have therefore told and retold the story, thus creating differing versions, what folklorists call “variants.” (In one, for instance, after Melissa left Beverleigh to his doom she allegedly “went back to find him” [“Mammoth Cave Ghosts” 2016]—an act which never occurred in the original [Blake 1858]. Again, although in the original story in The Knickerbocker the murderess says only that she is dying of a “deadly disease” [Blake 1858, 121], some later writers assert she “died of tuberculosis”—hence her ghost’s reported cough [O’Malley and Sawyer 2014, 175–176].) Ironically, an allegedly “true” folktale has thus been created out of pure fiction.


For the rest of us, Blake has also created—no doubt again unintentionally—a cautionary tale about critical thinking. It might begin, “Once upon a time, there was a story that—on reflection—might’ve seemed too good to be true . . .”



Notes

  • 1This was applied to the first paragraph of the text (a 114-word sample—Blake 1858, 111).

  • 2See Holman (1980), s.v. the italicized terms.



References

  • Blake, Lillie Devereux. 1858. A tragedy of the Mammoth Cave. The Knickerbocker 51(2) (February): 111–121.

  • Bovee, Courtland L., and John V. Thill. 1989. Business Communication Today, 2nd ed. New York: Random House, 125–126.

  • Coleman, Christopher K. 2011. Dixie Spirits: True Tales of the Strange & Supernatural in the South. New York: Fall River Press.

  • Farrell, Grace. 2002. Lillie Devereux Blake: Retracing a Life Erased. Boston: University of Massachusetts Press.

  • Ghost Stories of Mammoth Cave. 2016. Accessed September 8, 2016.

  • Hauck, Dennis William. 1996. Haunted Places: The National Directory. New York: Penguin Books. 

  • Haunted Mammoth Cave. 2016. Accessed August 31, 2016.

  • Holman, C. Hugh. 1980. A Handbook to Litera­ture, 4th ed. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill Educational Publishing.

  • Is Kentucky’s Mammoth Cave Haunted? 2012. Accessed August 31, 2016.

  • Mammoth Cave. 2016. Accessed August 26, 2016.

  • Mammoth Cave Ghosts. 2016. Accessed August 31, 2016.

  • Nickell, Joe. 2012. The Science of Ghosts: Searching for Spirits of the Dead. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.
———. 2016. Spelunker. Available online at http://www.joenickell.com/Spelunker/Spelunker1.html; accessed September 7, 2016.

  • Novella, Steven. 2009. Audio pareidolia. Avail­able online at http://theness.com/roguesgallery/index.php/skepticism/audio-pareidolia/; accessed September 2009.

  • O’Malley, Mimi, and Susan Sawyer. 2014. Myths and Mysteries in Kentucky. Guilford, CT: Globe Peqnot Press.

This is Genetic Engineering 2.0!

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Kevin Folta (Pictured Mid-Left) is a professor at the University of Florida and the chairman of the Horticultural Sciences Department. He will be speaking at CSICon on Friday October 27, at 1:30 pm. His lecture is titled “Genetic Engineering of Plants and Animals: Hot New Techniques, Same Old Resistance.”

Susan Gerbic: Kevin, what a blast CSICon 2016 was! It was so fun to see so many people hanging out, making new friends. You spoke about the vitriol you have had to endure with your work with GE (genetic engineering). It was very moving, and I heard this from many other people as well. This year you are speaking on Friday. Can you give us a quick preview?

Kevin Folta: In 2050, we will look back at this age as a time when our command of biology changed. From being able to manipulate viruses to attack cancer, to precision-change genetic information in a cell, to tweaking a gene and making a crop immune to a disease—breakthroughs like this are real and gaining momentum. This is genetic engineering 2.0!

In my talk, I’ll discuss the way we use “gene editing.” Gene editing is this method of changing a single base (or maybe a few bases) of targeted DNA in an amazingly precise way. And unlike the old methods of genetic engineering that left some of the hardware of the process in the cell, the new methods can yield tiny alterations that solve a problem with a precision change.

While scientists celebrate the technology and see it as a way to precision-breed new plants and animals, activists call it the most “dangerous and insidious form of screwing with nature known to man.”

The audience of skeptics needs to understand this technology. Countries like China are pouring funding into these approaches while we’re trying to figure out how to regulate it to death. People need to know what this is and what it isn’t, and that’s what I’ll talk about.

Gerbic: Catching up from the interview we did last year before CSICon 2016, what’s new?

Folta: I still take a lot of flames for stepping into a public discussion of technology, agriculture, and food. Food is such a hot topic, which is great. People are asking honest questions and they don’t know who to trust. Scientists and skeptics can carry this conversation, but we have to do it with skill and sensitivity. Over the last year I’ve probably done one hundred seminars, workshops, and interviews on the subject. It is clear that we don’t have to beat people to death with information like we usually do. We win with building trust, and we’re getting better at that.

In the octagon of public communication, I’ve been through the most painful defamation campaign activists could muster, and while it has affected me and my career negatively in many ways, it now allows me to take the fire for others. They can’t hurt me any more than they did. So now when I see others undergoing the same activist-inspired defamatory attacks, I can step in and make noise on their behalf.

When I was in my ground zero moments after a horrible piece in the New York Times, I felt very alone. It was folks in the scicomm and skeptical communities that spoke out on my behalf. I needed that. You did an amazing job at taking Wikipedia back from evil people and giving me my name back. Others that stepped up will be at CSICon 2017, and I’m going to give them stinky bear hugs and buy them those big weird novelty Vegas cocktails until they scream uncle. I was going to quit science and would have if it was not for that support.

[Note from Gerbic: The GSoW was unaware of the ugliness happening on Folta’s Wikipedia page until the drama was mostly over. The cleanup work was done by normal exceptional Wikipedia editors that fight every day to keep Wikipedia up to standards. The GSoW does not work alone; if not for the average editor, Wikipedia would be Conservapedia in months. There is far too much work to do.]

Gerbic: I see that you are still walking the walk when it comes to the “Ugly Food Movement” with your recent blog on rescuing bananas. Did you end up making banana bread? I know you said that some grocery stores give food others normally throw out to food banks, but it takes the will to do so. Do you have any tips that we consumers (besides just buying ugly food) can do to help grocery stores “find the will?”

Folta: The best thing we can do is learn about our crops. Learn their wild genetic stories. Learn about where they are produced now and what it takes to bring them to your plate. When you understand the time, fuel, human toil, and environmental impacts that go into making a tomato, a banana, a potato, you treasure it. Then reflect that so many people have nothing, and that blemished tomato still looks really good. It is a change in our expectations and a push to be grateful for every fruit and vegetable we have and celebrating the tiny number of farmers that produce them.

Gerbic: Last CSICon Halloween party you came as a clown. I was really hoping to see something from your Insane War Tomatoes days, but I guess you were worried about getting the outfit through security. This year the theme is zombie disco, and I know you can nail this one. What have you got planned? Not dressing up as a zombie banana or something I hope.

Folta: Funny you should ask. I’m hoping to stick around for the party, but I need to zip out to Chicago because we are having an Insane War Tomatoes reunion concert on Halloween night. First time we’ve played together since 1993 I think. I’m not going to look pretty in my 1980s spandex pants, but I still can make a guitar projectile vomit a stream of sound, so I’m looking forward to it.

Gerbic: I’m sure I’m going to regret asking you this, but one of my GSoW editors, Sharon Roney, follows your blog pretty closely and said, “I hope to hear his karaoke version of ‘Hell is for Children’ at CSICon.” What is that all about?

Folta: I’ve had a long history of bringing upbeat karaoke nights to a screaming halt with good performances of songs with buzzkill content. A fifty-year-old guy singing “You’re Sixteen” gets a lot of disgusted looks. There’s a collection of standards that put a chill in the room. It is kind of a social experiment—performance art! People are torn between the lyrics in their traditional context and their modern interpretations. It makes a room super uneasy. Why be the life of the party when you can be the death of it?

I recently wrote about them for the Huffington Post.

Gerbic: One last thing: as a science communicator, what’s your argument for “preaching to the choir” at conferences like CSICon where most in the audience are going to be supporters of GE foods?

Folta: I don’t usually think of this as preaching to the choir. I think of it as preaching to other preachers that have a different command of the scripture, and certainly different scriptures based on their personal values. I’m an oddball because I’ve spent the last thirty years learning about a little sliver of information, and I know a lot about it. The trick is to distill that information into nuggets that others can appreciate. Perhaps I can spark their interest, or even better yet inspire them to share the information with others.

In the days of social media networks these moments like CSIcon are so valuable. It is a chance for us to arm other science enthusiasts with the information they need to effectively communicate the strengths and limitations of any technology or idea. It trains us to think critically and answer questions with tact and grace. That’s what I loved about CSIcon 2016. The best conversations were in the hallways, in the casino over beers, and via emails in weeks to follow. Sharing science with others so that they can more effectively share science is my real passion. I’m grateful that CSIcon 2017 gives me a platform to do this.

Gerbic: I look forward to seeing you again at CSICon, Kevin. I wish you could stay for the Halloween party, but I completely understand why you would want to hang out with Insane War Tomatoes for an reunion concert. That sounds like a blast!

For readers, if you haven’t already got your tickets to CSICon 2017, make sure you get them soon. This event will mostly likely sell out; the venue is limited, and last year we nearly reached that limit. If you are on Facebook, please follow this page as it will allow you to know where people are hanging out and what events are happening outside the normal schedule. I and the other speakers are looking forward to meeting you there.

‘Psychic Detective’ Noreen Renier: The Grinch Who Stole Christmas from a Grieving Family

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Noreen Renier

August 12, 1989, was to be a joyous day for nineteen-year-old Kimberly McAndrew, a college student cashiering for the summer at a Canadian Tire store in the heart of the Halifax, Nova Scotia, peninsula. It was her boyfriend’s birthday, and he, along with her sister Heather, were to pick her up from work at 5 pm and begin the celebration. But Kimberly’s boss allowed her to clock out at 4:20, and though she presumably headed home—about a fifteen minute walk away—she remains missing to this day.

Six years and numerous dead-ends later, in October 1995 the Halifax Regional Police hired famed “psychic detective” Noreen Renier in the hopes that her paranormal abilities, endorsed by such notables as legendary FBI Special Agent Robert Ressler (coiner of the term “serial killer”), might lend some needed direction to their efforts. And if the number of directions in which she led them is any measure, they got their money’s worth!

In August 2015, during the course of research for a series of articles about the many long-unsolved murder cases in his city, Halifax Examiner editor Tim Bousquet obtained from Renier audio recordings of her three sessions (conducted by phone from her home in Florida) with Halifax Police Constable David MacDonald and sent them to me for comment. The opportunity for the public to hear and evaluate such a collaboration in its entirety is extremely rare, and I have made the recordings available at gpposner.com/Renier-Kimberly.html. Since interested readers can listen for themselves, I will try to limit this discussion to the most salient highlights.

Renier’s specialty is “psychometry”—holding onto an item (having been mailed to her by the family or police) belonging to the missing person, from which she derives the ability to “become” that person. As she explains, “There will be times I will be Noreen, so if you really want Kimberly to see something, you have to say, ‘Now Kimberly, we want you to tell us.’ ... It’ll be a mixture, and I’ll probably have the bad guy in there too occasionally.”

The first session, which lasts just over an hour, has Kimberly’s sister Heather and their mother on the line (they don’t participate in the next two) with Constable MacDonald. Renier soon makes “psychic” contact and offers news that everyone has been waiting six long years to hear: “I have Kimberly here.... She’s going to show us pretty soon where she is.” Yet matters quickly devolve into a protracted wild goose chase, starting at the very beginning with several serious stumbles. Kimberly (being channeled through Renier) declares, “I’m going to go out the south side of the building.” But although that side does face the street, witnesses attest to her exiting the rear parking lot door, which is along the building’s north side. And mere seconds later Renier tells us, “Her car is taken a short distance,” though Kimberly did not drive to work that day.

Yet no one seems disillusioned by these “psychic” insights, which the constable and the family must have known were errant, or by any of the claptrap to come—not even when mired in a mumbo-jumbo directional clue such as, “I’m seeing a clock. I’m seeing a center [in] which I want to put Kimberly. I would put where I left work, it’s either at 5:30, or just a little bit after, I don’t know. Seven o’clocks are backwards, so it’s either 5:30 or almost 6, or just a little before 6:00, but I don’t know what side it’s on, I really don’t. Is it 5:30, or 7, 6:30?” There are numerous (though fruitless) coherent clues, such as the “I want to go south, maybe southeast” one that ultimately leads to the first new search site. Perhaps Renier’s radar is hampered by a shortcoming that we learn about in a later session when she is asked to look to the south on a map: “I don’t know which [way] is south. I really don’t do maps.”

When Renier channels Kimberly long enough for her to speak to her mom for the first time since having disappeared, her topic of choice isn’t what one might expect: “What are you doing to your hair? I don’t know what you’ve done, but it’s not the same [as] when I was there. I don’t know—it’s different.” And Kimberly’s next (and last) such soliloquy rings no truer: “You still have that picture up of me, don’t you? [Mom: “Many pictures.”] Yeah, well, that one I don’t like. The one that was taken at school. I just never liked that thing; it looks so dirty. I don’t like that one. I like the others, though. And it seems like there’s new paint around there; I can smell some new paint.”

Nor does Kimberly sound any more authentic when MacDonald asks her what her plans were when she headed out: “Well, I was going, it seems like it’s either raining or it’s wet, or whatever it is I feel wet around me. I don’t know if I’m in water now or it was raining then. [Sorry, it sure wasn’t.] But my plans, either it was just a little trip or a little getaway, or, I feel like it was planned, only I didn’t get to the other end. I had something planned; there was something specific to do. I don’t get there. I get waylaid.” And when asked if she recognized anyone as she exited the store, Kimberly’s answer is again reminiscent of Renier’s own rhetorical style: “Yeah, I see a guy with a short name. He is slender; I feel more dark hair, maybe very thick, maybe some strong curl or wave in it.

Would have a very strong accent, but not your Canadian accent. It’s even a different accent to me, maybe a little bit more Slavic.” Though maybe not—Renier will later divine that the sole abductor was likely Kimberly’s “blood relative,” before she ultimately decides that an alleged witness’s story about three “native Indian” (First Nations) strangers is correct.

But the first session does include one impressive-sounding possible “hit”: “I saw a ‘Ken,’ or it started with a ‘K-E-N’ ... Now I don’t know if this was Kimberly or who, but ... my knee ... it could be upper leg. ... I hurt so much there.” MacDonald reveals someone named Ken to have been the principal case investigator at the time and that he “has a very bad leg.” But could Renier have obtained that information by other means in the interval between her hiring and the day of this session? And note that it was MacDonald—not Renier—who says that the lead detective was named Ken and has a bad leg. And had that clue not struck any chord with MacDonald or the family, Renier could have replied that maybe it was “K-I-M” that she saw, and that her leg got hurt during the abduction or murder.

Constable MacDonald tries several times to get Kimberly to name her abductor, with (of course) no success. She and her channeler instead lead him through a maze of ambiguities, such as, “If there’s a road or a street called ‘S’ there [to the southeast], something with an ‘S’ name,” and “I’m at work. It’s 4:20. I want to see [the] odometer. ... It could be 7.2 or 72. I feel a 7 and a 2 very strongly. And it could be seven-two, seven-three, could be a longitude or latitude.” And a moment later, “I’ve got a one-seven this time ... maybe 1.7. It’s by ... a park or parkway or park something, Park Road, but there’s something with a park involved in the area that she’s at.” This occurs about twenty-two minutes in, and Kimberly has still yet to simply, as advertised, tell them where she is.

The “psychic” takes a cruel turn after asking Heather if she writes down the details of her dreams about her sister. When the answer comes back “No,” Renier tells her, “Well, I try to recall [my dreams] as much as I can because I think there’re even clues in the dreams. [Kimberly] just finally gave up on you.” But Heather apparently keeps her composure and even becomes the first to garner a seemingly solid clue, asking her sister if she is in a familiar place. Kimberly answers, “Yes ... some place popular. ... We [the family] went there more for a holiday, I think, one time.” And a bit later: “There’s a well. There’s a big body of water [but] I’m not there, I’m in the well.” Renier suggests, “OK, let me go to the future and see when you find her. ... I would say, if it’s not this month it’s next month. ... I have no doubt that you’ll find her.” She adds (brags?), followed by two chuckles, “Some people have to wait three or four months, a year.” She also predicts that when she channels Kimberly again, “It won’t be hard for me to see who did it.” I’m tempted to say “famous last words,” but those are hardly her last!

Before the first session concludes, Renier mentions going over a bridge that “has an alphabet or numbers or something but not really a name.” Though that clue wouldn’t apply, based on the totality of Renier’s others so far, we learn two weeks later, at the beginning of the second session, that MacDonald made Point Pleasant Park, which occupies nearly 200 acres at the southeast tip of the peninsula, his first search priority (see map). But he says they surveyed “all known wells and whatever and had no success.” Yet Renier still sees the image of a “cylinder shape,” and MacDonald presses Kimberly for confirmation that she is in that park. “Yes, I am. I’m there. You all maybe came within ten to twelve yards.” But instead of hanging up at that point and marshalling a more thorough exploration of the park, he asks Kimberly to better describe that bridge. “The metal bridge is over ... swift-running water. It is quite a ways down there. A lot of boaters, rafters.” MacDonald: “Could it be the Angus L. Macdonald Bridge?” Kimberly answers, “Sure.” But as Constable MacDonald then points out, “The only problem with that, Kimberly, is the Macdonald Bridge leaves Halifax and goes to ... the city of Dartmouth.” (But remember, Renier said the bridge doesn’t “really [have] a name”!) Renier’s comeback: “I could be seeing this in another stage of her life.” But the only problem with that, Noreen, is that he was conversing with Kimberly, not you!

Kimberly also reveals that there is “some other stuff in here with me,” to which Renier adds, “He’s not just hiding a body; he’s hiding a body and evidence. ... And I think this is why we haven’t found him yet.” Discussion ensues about Point Pleasant Park’s three points of entry, and Renier selects the one at the park’s eastern border just north of Black Rock Beach. MacDonald is directed to enter through the gate “and then we’ll hang a right. It might be two rights in a row.” When he asks if “old Chain Rock Battery” means anything to her, the response is, “Yeah ... on one side is water. Yes, yes, and it’s got a very, brick, gray, that gray is there” (those were some earlier clues). They agree to check that part of the park next, even though it is at the far west end, and hanging a right upon entering that eastern gate would take you due north. Nonetheless, confidence abounds as Renier half-jokes, “If we find her, can I come up and say hi to you all? ... And make plane reservations [for me]; that’s how confident I am.”

So why, one minute into yet another (the third and final) psychic session, does Renier advise MacDonald to “shove it all out the door” (referring to all the information she provided in the first two sessions) and “just sort of start with a fresh picture”? The second search of the park had yielded nothing, and now a jailed convict in Halifax is claiming to have seen two associates murder and bury Kimberly. MacDonald says that according to this source, “Not too far after ... they cross the [Angus Macdonald] bridge ... supposedly that’s where she’s murdered.” (I can’t help but wonder if MacDonald had leadingly suggested that particular bridge to his source like he had to “Kimberly.”) Continuing, “And then they come back across the bridge to Halifax” before burying her in Fleming (sometimes called “Dingle”) Park, which is “across the [water] from [the west end of] Point Pleasant Park.” Renier wonders if maybe she had selected Point Pleasant “because of me touching it so much” (on some printed matter). But recall that it was not Renier, but the channeled Kimberly, who had earlier declared that she was there, just yards from where searchers had been looking. Renier can’t keep her personas straight.

Yet Renier is skeptical of the jailbird’s story: “I don’t buy it. I just don’t buy it.” She instead recommends going “the opposite way from where he was showing you,” and so they look northeastward again over the bridge into Dartmouth, after which there’s “a right turn or right road that we would take,” which MacDonald advises her would lead southward. Trying to fathom exactly “where [Kimberly] was put,” Renier is reminded of her earlier “cylinder” clue, and now also perceives a “very deep” gulley. MacDonald tries to assist: “You’re on the number 7 highway [heading southeast just over the bridge as per the map]. Would this lead to this gulley that you’re seeing?” Renier answers in the affirmative, and moments later, “I feel in the gulley. ... I just feel [we will find her soon], before Christmas.”

But where? In this gulley across the bridge to the east of the Halifax peninsula? In a well within Point Pleasant Park, as “Kimberly” herself insists? Or where MacDonald will now again focus Renier’s attention, across the water to the west of the peninsula, in the park fingered by his alleged witness? Upon viewing pictures of that park, Renier exclaims, “It’s got brick! ... It’s got lots of things! Yes, yes, yes!” MacDonald tells her that his source “says that they dug a hole in the ground, very shallow, in that Dingle Park.” But Renier again expresses distrust: “That’s B.S., total B.S. ... There’s no way. ... These guys aren’t the ditch-digging type, OK? They didn’t do that.” But when she envisions herself “inside that park ... there’s the overhang. I can see the overhang.” MacDonald asks if by “overhang” she is referring to “that gulley you were looking down on” a little while earlier. Renier immediately exclaims “Yes!” Except that in all the excitement, they must have forgotten that the gulley she envisioned Kimberly being tossed into was across the Macdonald Bridge in the opposite direction!

Yet Renier likes a particular area of this park where MacDonald says “there are two [manmade] ponds [and] this little stone bridge going over one of them.” Did “Kimberly” mistake this pond for a well? And this tiny stone structure for the nearly mile-long “metal bridge” she had earlier identified? He further notes that “those ponds in August [the month in which Kim had disappeared] are basically dry, and they would look like a little depression in the ground ... a little gulley.” But though this is miles from the “very deep” gulley and also contradicts her “They didn’t do that [digging]” remark, Renier agrees and further rationalizes that the “cylinder” shape could represent what Kimberly’s body “was wrapped [in]” rather than a well, and she soon becomes so excited that “I’m sort of jumping up and down here! ... I’m just going crazy because you know where it is! It’s there! And he was right! ... And the reason you can’t find [the grave] is it’s covered up with water!”

So, the wild goose having been chased down, all that remains in finding Kimberly’s remains was deciding which of the two ponds to drain. “Do the one with the ‘R’ ... I feel ‘R’ ... That ‘R’ is going to be somewhere.” (I suspect there could be more “rubbish” nearer to one than the other.) And as an afterthought, “Oh, I didn’t tell you before; I got the name ‘Jimmy.’ ... So is there anybody in our cast of characters named ‘Jimmy’?” When MacDonald tells her that his source’s name is “Jamie [or] James,” Renier asks (though with the inflection of a declarative statement), “Oh, I didn’t know that, did I?” MacDonald replies, “Yeah, actually you did” and Renier responds, “Oh, darn.” But perhaps, MacDonald suggests, she can identify “these other two [First Nations] characters, like if you can maybe see something [else] about them that you can describe or Kimberly could describe.” Renier says, “I would have to have the man’s hair.” (But she wouldn’t need to get into Jamie’s mind in order for Kimberly to describe them!) MacDonald even tells her that Jamie “told us who they are ... where we can find them and everything. They’re very well known to the police.” But Renier doesn’t even try, though as to motive she offers, “[Kimberly to them] was ... blond ... or the Anglo Saxon ... enemy. I feel that they were drunk, on drugs, or whatever.”

Whatever. It should be only a matter of days now anyway before the pond is drained and that hidden evidence—enough to put the perps away for decades—is recovered, along with the remains of young Kimberly McAndrew. And moments before they say their farewells, Renier assures MacDonald, “You’ll, you’ll, you’ll, you’ll find her before Christmas. ... A nice Christmas present for everybody.” But Christmas never arrived that year for the grieving McAndrew family, nor has it in the two decades since. •

The Phoenix Driveway Ghost

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Q: I was watching a program on the Discovery Channel and saw you. I have tried very hard to get an explanation as to why this image appears on my driveway every night. I have a security camera that records this strange image; it looks like illuminated smoke or mist. It creeps up from the ground and travels across my driveway.... Can you review the tape and explain to me what’s happening?

—Kay M.


A: I received the above query from a woman named Kay, who lives in a suburb of Phoenix, Arizona. I replied asking for more details, which she supplied over the course of two or three emails (condensed here for clarity and brevity):

It creeps up from the ground and travels across my driveway. When it reaches the other side it just rolls over the side of the driveway like water falling over a waterfall back into the ground. It’s very bright and has no particular shape. It is sometimes big and sometimes smaller. It starts at the driveway nearest the house and every night it moves down further away from the house until it reaches the end of the driveway and then it starts over again. It sometimes changes shapes; sometimes it’s smaller and sometimes it’s larger. I have hours of video of this strange sighting. I attributed this image to the disturbances I’ve had in the house such as ringing, bumping, popping, and rattling noises. I’ve had knocks on the front door and nobody’s there. . . . I’ve had my silverware turned upside down in the drawer and other nuisances in my kitchen. This is just a little of what’s been happening to me.

I asked for a copy of her video, and she sent me a VHS tape of a grainy surveillance video. The time/date stamp read April 30, and the video covered that evening and the early hours of the next day. Sure enough, there was an eerie, round, glowing image that appeared from 22:20 (10:20 pm) until 2:15am. It crossed the driveway, moving diagonally and very slowly. In fact the glowing ghost (if that’s what it was) took about four hours to cross the driveway. I asked for a better quality video on DVD, but she only had a VCR hooked up to her security camera and could not provide it.

A few days later I got another email from Kay:

Just to let you know, this thing on the driveway is very smart. I don’t think it wanted to be recorded or it wanted to confuse me. From the 8th of June to the 20th it wasn’t there. Then, on the 21st of June just as it was getting dark (about 7 pm), I went in to get the system set up and the image was there in the middle of the driveway. Before that, I think it just started early in the day and completed its trip across the driveway before I turned the camera on. That’s why I say it’s very smart.

Upon reviewing our correspondence, it was clear to me that Kay associated what was going on in her driveway with strange events in her home (such as popping noises, knocks on the front door, etc.) even though there was no clear connection. In her mind, these disparate phenomena were somehow related. This is fairly common in paranormal mysteries, where eyewitnesses will often lump random things together, confusing the issue and creating red herrings. I had no idea who might be knocking on her door or why she might hear rattling or popping (traffic, neighbors, and other ambient sounds seemed plausible), but I was not asked to investigate—nor was I given any evidence of—anything other than the driveway entity, so that’s what I focused on.

It’s important in investigations to determine the scope of the claims and not get bogged down with irrelevant information, as it’s easy to go on a wild goose chase. I soon realized that I was dealing with an unreliable witness; while her information was interesting, it was important to stick with the facts and the evidence available. She was not only convinced that the glowing orb was sentient (and trying to trick her) but also that it was causing other minor mischief.

After doing some research, I concluded that the ghost or glowing entity Kay videotaped was in fact the reflection of the moon crossing her driveway—very, very, slowly. Though most people assume that asphalt, being black, absorbs rather than reflects light, oils in the tar do reflect light. The video itself shows this quite clearly; the white area in the top right hand corner of the image is light reflected from a street lamp. Thus we know that light can be reflected. By consulting an almanac, I determined that the night of April 30 was a full moon. So there was a full moon that evening, which would have likely been reflected by the driveway. But my hypothesis falls apart (or is severely weakened) if the weather over Phoenix was overcast that evening. Further investigation revealed that the skies over Phoenix were clear that night, and the city had a high of 98° and a low of 74°. Further evidence for this solution was her information that “From the 8th of June to the 20th it wasn’t there.” Consulting a lunar calendar, I found that June 8 was the date of the last quarter of the moon, thus the moon was about half as illuminated as during a full moon. And, not coincidentally, the ghost reappeared around June 20—just before the first quarter of the full moon.

This information was very strong evidence for a solution but didn’t conclusively prove that the moon was mistaken for a ghost. I wanted to test my hypothesis with a falsifiable scientific test. I wrote to Kay and asked her to record the driveway on the night of May 13. Consulting my calendar, I saw that there would be no moon that night; if the mysterious image appeared on that night, then the image could not possibly be the reflected moon, and I’d have to keep looking for a solution. I queried her on May 15, asking to see the videotape. She replied about a week later: “I didn’t have the camera pointed at the driveway on May 13. It didn’t show itself for about a week.”

At that point I considered my investigation complete. I had specifically asked for a key piece of evidence, and for whatever reason Kay didn’t do as I instructed to collect that evidence. Perhaps she had in fact recorded the video and was embarrassed that the ghost hadn’t appeared, as I predicted. Perhaps she just forgot. But Kay admitted that recorded or not, the ghost had not appeared that week, so either way my point had been made.

I patiently and diplomatically explained to Kay what I thought the solution to her mystery was, outlining for her my evidence, research, and reasoning. Kay wrote back to me saying, “I’m sorry but I disagree with you unless there is a full moon every night. I have taped this image over and over every night for months on end and I don’t believe we have a full moon every night.” (Of course the moon would not necessarily have to be full to appear in the video, and in any event the only tapes Kay ever sent me were recorded during full moons.)

She continued, “Thanks for your review, but I know it is something else. I’ve even taped this image during the day once and I don’t think we can see the moon during the day.” Kay never provided the daylight video for me to examine, so that evidence was not presented to me for analysis. And though I doubt that even a bright moon would be reflected through full daylight, it might be in the late afternoon since the moon is often visible during daylight. Kay just needed to look at the sky to test her theory. Though I prefer to do field investigations when possible, I didn’t have the budget to do an onsite investigation; it would have been both impractical and prohibitively expensive to fly to Phoenix and stake out this woman’s driveway for days (or weeks). In any event, I had the video evidence I needed in the form of the videotape. Investigators must weigh the costs and benefits of an onsite investigation and work within their means while making a diligent effort to solve the case. I did the best I could and wonder if to this day Kay tells her friends and neighbors about her driveway ghost.


The Farce Known as ‘FC’

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Photo Courtesy of the New York Times

I must address you about what’s known as “facilitated communication,” which involves what’s now most often called “autism spectrum disorder” (ASD), a subject that deeply concerns me. The first-ever fully identified and defined example of autism was only found in 1941.


This facilitated communication (FC) is simply a blatant stunt claimed to be a means of communicating with autistic children and adults afflicted by this complex neurological condition. ASD victims show widely varying degrees of impaired social interaction and communication—typically avoidance of eye-contact and strangely restricted and compulsively repetitive behavior. These symptoms first show up before a child is three years old and can become much stronger and more dangerous to that person’s well-being, though many mature into adulthood and survive—though with difficulty. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that one in forty-five persons in this country can be said to have at least some degree of autism—this is a figure that demands the very serious attention of the skeptical community!


Different authorities and quite un­qualified celebrity figures have argued variously that the mercury compounds once used as preservatives in some vaccines trigger it—specifically the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine—a notion now completely disproven but still embraced by some.


In March 1992, I was contacted by Dr. Anne M. Donnellan—then with the University of Wisconsin–Madison—who told me about a situation in which she was deeply involved. What little I already knew about FC indicated to me that she was very, very, misdirected and self-deceived.


I told her that the security of the children involved in this research must have priority and stated that if I became part of the investigation, that would have to be the primary consideration. I also said that I would gladly participate without any remuneration other than my basic costs of travel and accommodation.


She explained to me the difficulty of communication with the autistic children due to apraxia—the inability to perform simple, coordinated, physical actions even though the muscular ability is present. She told me that facilitated communication consists of the “facilitator” (an adult clinician or scientist) being in physical contact with the child while the child has access to an “augmentative device” (computer keyboard, typewriter, alphabet blocks, letter chart, etc.), which the child would be unable to manipulate sufficiently well to communicate. She said that certain children had shown remarkable abilities under FC, expressing ideas and concepts that had formerly been believed to be far beyond their abilities.


I told her that I felt the researchers might be under the influence of the Clever Hans Effect, in which the “facilitator,” in this case, might be—unknowingly—transmitting the sought-after responses to the child. This suggestion was emphatically denied, and I was told that every care had been taken to ensure that this was not possible. Her enthusiasm for this point was quite contagious, but I was immune to such an infection.


I’d already seen several videos of the facilitated communication procedure being used on autistic kids. The adult “facilitator” grasps the hand of the child, with the child’s index finger extended out over the keyboard of the computer. In almost every case, the child is looking away, uninvolved in the procedure, often babbling or screaming as the facilitator studies the keyboard and uses the subject’s finger as the tool with which he or she is typing! It is abundantly obvious that the child is not typing. No, the “facilitator” is typing, using that child’s finger!


However, another reported phenomenon was reported to me. Particularly in view of my own expertise, I was told that several of these children claimed that they were able to “read minds.” This was the primary reason that I had been contacted, it turned out, due to my extensive involvement in such investigations.


The autistics were able, I was told, to thereby communicate with one another, the main reason for Dr. Donnellan having asked me to visit and to advise the group, since as a result of my expertise as a magician I should be able to determine whether telepathy might be in operation. I went to Madison fully aware of what was happening there before I took on the task.


I agreed to participate in an investigation of both these situations, though—please note—I was regularly being encouraged not to examine the basic facilitated communication claim itself, but I’d already seen it in operation, and I doubted its efficacy. I was assured that all “that” had been firmly established. This task required that I visit Madison to observe the children in person. Believing that I could be of use to the project, I agreed.


Dr. Douglas Biklen of the University of Syracuse has promoted the FC procedure as valid, quite in error in my opinion. You may have seen the very definitive, powerful, video prepared and broadcast by PBS, very damning evidence against FC. In this documentary, the autistic subjects are looking away, quite unaware and disinterested in what is being asked of them. The fact that the supporters of the FC notion also saw this proves that they are ignoring the very strong evidence that the data originates with the “facilitator.” It does not come from the child at all. FC is not communication. It is blatant manipulation.


Dr. Biklen founded his university’s Facilitated Communication Institute in 1992. In August 2005, he was promoted to Dean of its School of Education, from which he retired in 2014, and this appointment was strongly criticized by the Commission for Scientific Medicine and Mental Health and by members of the Special Education research community. In 2012, Biklen received a United Nations prize that was awarded him because of his advocacy of FC, which—again—had been so very, very, thoroughly and effectively debunked as wishful thinking, bad science, and nonsense on the 1993 television special on PBS Frontline as well as through my personal investigation and experience with this manipulative deception the year before in 1992.


But please, you must remember the financial investment that Syracuse University still has in FC, via Dr. Biklen. It brings in millions annually from desperate parents and charities.


Dr. James T. Todd invited me to speak at Eastern Michigan University in 2005, and as a result he issued a direct challenge to the Autism Society over its sponsorship of a facilitated communication training workshop. Two of the attendees at that workshop, the Wendrows, were falsely accused—via facilitated communication—of rape of a child. They were arrested and jailed.


But I must wonder whether the Wendrows’ naive acceptance of FC and their previous vigorous denunciation of me remained in effect after they themselves experienced—firsthand—the damage that it can wreak. The Wendrows sued and got a $1.85 million settlement from the police. This situation was covered in a six-day front page story in the Detroit Free Press and on an ABC-TV 20/20 show.


As chief supporters of FC at the University of Syracuse and the force behind getting the MIT Media Lab to host Dr. Douglas Biklen’s annual Facilitated Communication “Summer Institute,” those communication experts and scientists at the MIT Media Lab ought to have been the first to reject FC. I’ve spoken there, several times, but it appears that some of its staff are true believers in FC, and some are significantly beholden to certain supporters of FC for financial support.


The MIT Media Lab endorsement of the facilitated communication farce is very discouraging and alarming to me. I just cannot understand how such a splendid facility can give approval to this dangerous—and useless—procedure. I always stood ready to design and conduct comprehensive tests of FC, and I still do, but apparently the money interests have been more successful, having spoken louder than rationality.


And—in closing—I will tell you that in my early correspondence with Dr. Donnellan I learned that one of the autistic children she said I would be meeting in Madison, six-year-old “Andrew,” had been banging his head on the floor, which is a not-uncommon practice of autistic children at the far end of the spectrum, and when the child got in front of the keyboard and was asked why he did the head-banging, he answered—by “assisted” typing, remember!—that his head hurt. Asked why his head hurt, he typed out—correctly spelled, they claim—“Because you need to operate on my hypothalamus.” This from a six-year-old child? And correctly spelled? Do these scientists actually believe this report?


Apparently, they do!

JonBenet Murder Mystery Solved? (Not by Psychics)

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On the day after Christmas 1996, child beauty-pageant star JonBenet Ramsey, age six, was found dead—garroted and her skull broken—in the basement of her family’s home in Boulder, Colorado. As police vied with the district attorney’s office over incompatible theories, the mystery of the little girl’s death became a national media sensation, but it never led to an arrest. The case is a complex puzzle—not only with many pieces to sort out and fit into place but with some bogus pieces tossed into the mix.

I have worked privately on this case over the years. Unfortunately, I lacked the direct access (to police files, crime-scene evidence, etc.) that I had when I was enlisted to investigate homicide cases (e.g., Nickell 2007; Nickell with Fischer 1992, 107–129; Nickell and Fischer 1999, 39). Still, much essential evidence in the Ramsey case has now become publicly available. What I present here is not an accusation but an exercise in trying to select and interpret the best evidence for “One of the greatest unsolved crimes in history” (Murder2016).

Death of JonBenet

At about 5:52 am on December 26, the girl’s mother, Patsy Ramsey, called 911 to report her daughter missing—although a ransom note Mrs. Ramsey had found on the kitchen stairs warned that alerting authorities would result in her daughter being killed; ditto talking to anyone else, although she also called friends.

Responding to the emergency call, two police officers arrived separately at 755 Fifteenth Street and looked around, but they did not see any evidence of breaking and entering.

The ransom note was addressed to JonBenet’s father, John Ramsey (see below).

The patrol sergeant called for additional officers, a crime-scene investigation (CSI) crew, and what are known as victim advocates to comfort and assist the Ramseys. Unfortunately, the house was not vacated and guarded as a crime scene, and a Ramsey friend, Fleet White, even went looking in the basement. In a large room with a model railroad, he saw a broken window, picked up a piece of glass, putting it on the ledge, and moved a suitcase to look for other pieces. He had unthinkingly altered part of the crime scene (although it would be learned that John Ramsey had himself broken the window on an earlier occasion, when he had locked himself out of the house). Also, an advocate followed behind a fingerprint technician, using spray cleaner to tidy up as he finished with the area (Ramsey with Chapian 2012, 12; Thomas with Davis 2000, 18–27).

About one o’clock that afternoon, detective Linda Arndt initiated a further search with White and Ramsey. Ignoring her suggestion to begin at the top floor and work their way down, Ramsey headed straight for the basement, “a warren of rooms, closets, nooks, and crawl spaces” (Thomas with Davis 2000, 27). There, in a little room lacking a window, he discovered the lifeless body of JonBenet. She lay face up with her arms extended above her head. She was dressed in a white knit top and white long underwear over an “oversized” pair of floral-print panties. A pink nightgown was in the white blanket that she was neatly tucked into (Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 23; Thomas with Davis 2000, 28, 42; Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 284; Gentile and Wright 2003, 306). Ramsey ripped off duct tape covering her mouth, picked up the stiffened little body, and—carrying it upstairs—placed it on the floor close to the front door. Arndt noticed the smell of decomposition when she reached to the neck to feel for a pulse. Ramsey put a quilt over the body, and someone covered the feet with a sweatshirt. He lay down to put his arm around the dead child and stroked her hair, while Patsy came and fell across the body. All of these actions, and more, seriously compromised any future evidence collecting (Thomas with Davis 2000, 27–30; Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 22–26).

The following day, when the coroner began to autopsy the forty-five-pound corpse, he saw a loop of white cord loosely around the right wrist and a loop on the opposite end as if it had previously secured the left wrist as well. A length of similar white cord was wrapped tightly about the neck, and a piece of broken artist’s paintbrush was in place where it had been used as a twisting handle for the garrote. (It was later found to have come from a brush belonging to Patsy Ramsey and to match a piece of the brush’s bristle end, although the bottom third was never discovered1 [Gentile and Wright 1993, 211].) Slivers from the broken paintbrush were found on the floor of the room where the body was found, indicating it was the site of the garroting (Killing 2016). The upper right side of the little girl’s skull had been caved in by a severe blow, leaving a rectangular imprint.

Among other findings were a heart drawn with red ink on the left palm, an empty stomach (but the upper digestive tract contained bits of pineapple), and, at the hymeneal opening, an abrasion. Petechial (pinpoint) hemorrhaging in the eyelids indicated her heart was still pumping at the time the choking occurred (Thomas with Davis 2000, 41–43). More on this later.

Search for an Outsider

While from the outset the Boulder police suspected the Ramseys, District Attorney Alex Hunter commissioned retired homicide detective Lou Smit to conduct an independent investigation. Like the Ramseys, he was very religious and prayed with them (Ramsey with Chapian 2012, 124–126).

Shortly after entering the case, Smit embraced the theory that an outsider—a pedophile targeting the child beauty queen—was responsible (Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 319). He found an unlocked grate and window leading to the basement. Although the window was small and still partially covered by an intact spider web (Case2016), he stubbornly defended this as an entry point for an intruder. (When he himself went through the space to test his theory, the film shows his trim body spanning the entire width of the window [Killing 2016].)

Although JonBenet did not suffer penile penetration (some experts concluded the frontal vaginal redness and abrasion could have been due to her known vaginitis or even rough wiping), Smit had a theory. He thought the offender had entered the child’s bedroom and used a stun gun to immobilize her, based on certain odd markings on her body. The use of a stun gun or taser only made sense in terms of an outsider scenario, and, if proved, would seem to clear the Ramseys.

However, Stephen Tuttle, an expert on the brand of taser (Air Taser) that was supposedly identified, stated that the only similarity was the spacing between the two marks on JonBenet’s back. Only a single mark appeared on the side of her face. “We have never seen those types of marks when you touch somebody with a stun gun,” Tuttle said. “We are talking hundreds of people that have been touched with these devices. I can’t replicate those marks” (Anderson 2001; see also Case2016). Famed criminalist Henry Lee and others suggested the set of paired marks on her body was caused by the ends of a segment of the basement’s toy-railroad track being poked at her, perhaps in an attempt to rouse her from unconsciousness (Killing 2016).

Smit had suggested that after supposedly rendering JonBenet unconscious (which the Air Taser would not do, according to its expert [Anderson 2001]), the perpetrator set about his nefarious work: He taped her mouth, carried her to the basement, choked her in an erotic fantasy, and sexually abused her digitally (Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 319).

Smit amassed other evidence for the outsider scenario—DNA traces on 
her clothing, for example, as well as a single pubic hair on her blanket, an unidentified palm print discovered on the door, and some other possible evidence. Boulder police and several experts tended to regard such evidence as doubtful and likely due to contamination (Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 319–320; Case2016).

As to the bizarre ransom note, Smit believed the intruder had written it after first entering and exploring the house. Then he hid until the family returned home and waited until all were asleep before going to JonBenet’s bedroom. To say the least, the combined ransom and molestation scenario appears farfetched—especially to skeptics of the outsider hypothesis who rely on evidence that the ransom note was written after the child’s death—strong corroborative evidence that it was an inside job.

An Insider’s Work

Of course the outsider hypothesis disappears like a phantom if JonBenet’s mother wrote the ransom note. Let’s revisit the peculiar text.

A “foreign faction” indeed. The note is wordy (“At this time we have your daughter in our possession,” rather than simply, “We have your daughter”). It is replete with irrelevancies and implausibilities, and even borrows expressions from the 1994 movie Speed (whose extortionist character played by Dennis Hopper says, “You know that I’m on top of you. Do not attempt to grow a brain”) and the 1971 Clint Eastwood movie Dirty Harry (which has the lines, “If I even think you’re being followed, the girl dies. If you talk to anyone, I don’t care if it’s a Pekinese . . . the girl dies”). The amount of ransom asked for was almost exactly that of a bonus John Ramsey had previously received (Cheer and Rahman 2016).

This laughably phony ransom note was surely not part of any kidnapping. It only makes sense as a staged element in a cover-up of the killing. But who wrote the two-and-a-half-page contrivance?

Early on, police did not think the Ramseys were acting normally. Detective Arndt said John Ramsey was oddly “cordial” when he greeted her. Also, the couple did not try to console each other. Officers found it suspicious that Burke, almost ten, was still in his room. One saw Patsy Ramsey, although sobbing, slyly watching them through splayed fingers (Killing 2016).

Police soon discovered that the note was written on a notepad belonging to Patsy Ramsey. One leaf in the pad (number 26) has the beginning of an earlier draft, “Mr. and Mrs.,” followed by a downstroke that was likely the beginning of an R. Leaves 17–25 were missing, but the ink writing from leaf 25 had bled through onto 26, suggesting that some of the last of those leaves could have been used for still another draft. Finally, leaves 27–29 matched the ragged top edges of the ransom note, proving they came from Patsy Ramsey’s notepad (Thomas with Davis 2000, 73).

Of seven fingerprints found on the writing pad, one was left by a police sergeant, another came from a forensic examiner, and the remaining five were those of Patsy Ramsey. The ink of the writing on the ransom note exactly matched that of a black water-based ink Sharpie that also belonged to Mrs. Ramsey—according to the U.S. Secret Service document laboratory (where I was once given a VIP tour). The lab maintains a federally mandated Ink Library containing many thousands of reference samples (Thomas with Davis 2000, 54, 152). (Recall that the wood used for the garrote came from a paintbrush that belonged to her as well.) And there was much more.

Forensic Document Examination

As to the all-important handwriting of the note, some sources have asserted that it was never linked to Patsy Ramsey. That is untrue. Others—John Ramsey, of course, and son Burke—were ruled out as authors, but she was not. The Colorado Bureau of Investigation compared her handwriting samples to the writing on the note, but there were problems. The questioned writing, for one thing, lacks the smoothness (from good motor control) of Mrs. Ramsey’s normal writing (see for yourself at Gentile and Wright 2003, 399–407). During a fourth session with her, however, in 1997, the forensic document experts had a surprise: they asked her to write a specimen using her left hand.

The result was striking. One leading expert—one I know personally and regard as absolutely top tier—gave a very definite opinion, identifying Patsy Ramsey as the author: “I am absolutely certain that she wrote the note.” He is Gideon Epstein,2 who began his career as Chief of the Questioned Document Division, U.S. Army, then became Senior Forensic Document Examiner with the National Laboratory Center, Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms. He established the Immigration and Naturalization Service Forensic Document Laboratory in 1980, where he then served until retiring in 2000. A past president of the American Society of Questioned Document Examiners and a fellow of the American Academy of Forensic Science, he is now in private practice in Rockville, Maryland.According to Epstein’s sworn testimony, “The handwriting on the ransom note is a classic example of an attempt to disguise the true handwriting habits of the writer” (Epstein 2002, 97–98). Epstein, referring to “the poor line quality of the ransom note writing,” added that while stress could have played a factor, “I felt there was more evidence of a conscious attempt to disguise” (Epstein 2002, 98–99). Regarding his examination of Patsy Ramsey’s handwriting in comparison to that of the ransom note he stated: “After I concluded that examination, which was more than 1150 hours of work, I felt that I had identified sufficient significant handwriting characteristics with no significant differences.” He went on to emphasize that regarding another examiner’s finding of some alleged differences between Patsy Ramsey’s writing and that of the note: “There are no significant differences. There are variations to the same basic handwriting patterns, but there are no significant differences” (Epstein 2002, 89).

Scenario of Death

The identification of Patsy Ramsey as author of the pseudo–ransom note points directly to one of the Ramseys. I have always doubted, however, that either of the parents was the killer. Among other reasons, I question why one would conspire to protect a guilty other. But both, I have always thought, would be quick to protect their son Burke. One can easily understand how—having lost one child—they would join to prevent losing another. Might the never-identified acronym, “S.B.T.C.,” written below the word “Victory!” on the fake ransom note, stand for “Save Burke Through Christ”?

While police focused largely on the Ramseys, Patsy seemed the most suspected, Burke the least. The District Attorney’s office bought into Smit’s intruder notions, and—while a grand jury recommended indicting John and Patsy (for child abuse resulting in JonBenet’s death)—D.A. Alex Hunter concluded there was insufficient evidence for filing charges. In 2008, his successor, Mary Lacy, actually sent the Ramseys a letter rashly declaring them “completely cleared” and apologizing for their treatment. The following year the Boulder police reclaimed the case, reopening the investigation (Killing 2016).

Let us pause here to review the cause of death, which according to the autopsy report (Meyer 1996) was “asphyxia by strangulation associated with craniocerebral trauma.” Those who have suspected Patsy Ramsey have postulated that she may have injured her daughter in a fit of rage in which the child’s head hit against, say, the bathtub; the ligature followed later, as part of the staging of the scene (see e.g., Thomas with Davis 2000, 286–287). Actually, although it is not precisely certain which trauma came first, the petechial hemorrhages—such as on the insides of the eyelids—together with relatively minimal bleeding from the head blow, are indications that the strangulation occurred first (Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 254–256; Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 285; Schiller 1999, 156, 467).

This would seem to be confirmed by the presence of short curved marks on JonBenet’s neck, thought to have been left by her fingernails as she clawed at the cord in a vain attempt to relieve the choking (Killing 2016). But this remains controversial.

If the strangulation did precede the head blow, then the garroting was not done as staging; it may also not have been intended to kill. Famed pathologist Cyril Wecht calls attention to the little-discussed practice of auto-erotic asphyxiation, usually carried out by males attempting to “heighten the sexual experience during masturbation.” In the case of JonBenet, Wecht postulates “an extraordinary act—a vicarious form of auto-erotic asphyxiation.” As he explains, “Someone had found sexual stimulation by forcing JonBenet to experience the terribly uncomfortable and even terrifying effect of this near strangulation; at least it was supposed to be near strangulation” (Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 58–62).

However, such activity is inherently dangerous: If the vagus nerve (extending from the brain along either side of the neck and controlling many body organs) is pinched and its electrical messages interrupted, respiratory and cardiac functions may cease. Thus JonBenet’s death “would have been inexplicable to the one who had ignorantly applied the fatal pressure to her neck” (Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 61).

While Wecht thought the assailant was “probably an adult,” males as young as nine are known to have engaged in sexual asphyxia (Brody 1984), and Burke was only a month shy of ten. Also there is a nonsexual practice among some children as young as six (largely but not exclusively males) involving strangulation either by oneself or by another. It is called the “choking game” and is intended to cause a brief state of euphoria. (It is also called the “pass-out game,” “blackout game,” “space monkey,” scarf game,” and other names. It is known at least as early as 1995 [Russell et al. 2008].)

Nevertheless, in the Ramsey case, a sexual element seems established by the autopsy. Although JonBenet had not been raped per se, the evidence, insists Wecht—some non-extensive abrasion and damage to the hymen—indicated sexual molestation by a slender object such as a finger (Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 94–99). Some “birefringent foreign material” in the vagina led to speculation that it came from a shard (of varnish perhaps) from the broken paintbrush (from which a piece was used for the garrote, the end section having gone missing) (Meyer 1996; Thomas with Davis 2000, 305; cf. Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 97).

There are both further evidence and credible speculations that the assailant could have been Burke Ramsey. Police observed a bowl of JonBenet’s favorite fruit, fresh pineapple (bits of which, we recall, were found in her upper small intestine), on a breakfast-room table. It bore Burke’s fingerprints (and those of his mother). Possibly Burke had enticed his sister from her room and suggested some secret play in the labyrinthine basement, leading the way with a large flashlight that police observed before it later disappeared from the kitchen counter. Renowned pathologist Werner Spitz thought it could have been the murder weapon (Thomas with Davis 2000, 192, 239). Police photographed a dictionary on a coffee table in the first-floor study, opened and with the lower left page corner creased so as to point to the word Incest (Thomas with Davis 2000, 263). This suggests the Ramseys tried to see if the sexual explorations between their beauty-queen daughter (whom many felt was being sexualized by her mother) and their precocious son fit that label. It is worth mentioning that Burke and JonBenet occasionally slept in the other’s bedroom—as acknowledged by Patsy Ramsey in her first interview with police (Gentile and Wright 2003, 91).

The perpetrator may have passed out himself and then—finding JonBenet unresponsive—became alarmed. He may have first tried to revive her by shaking her (Wecht saw evidence of this from bruises to the brain’s temporal lobes [Wecht and Bosworth 1998, 100]), then by poking her (with, say, the toy train track). Finally, in despair and rage he could have hit her with the flashlight. In time, he might be expected to run to his parents. The piercing scream heard by a neighbor—between midnight and two am December 26—was probably not from a child, as the neighbor thought, but Patsy Ramsey, who was given to such outbursts (Thomas with Davis 2000, 29, 71–72), when she first saw her little girl dead.

Psychic Connection

If this hypothesis is correct, it helps explain why the case has gone unsolved for twenty years. It has been widely acknowledged as extremely difficult. But if one finds the explanation bizarre (Wecht knew many would find the sexual asphyxia aspect shocking), that is not so surprising after all. I have a saying, “An unusual case may have an equally unusual solution.”

In any case, during the twenty years of mystery and controversy, we must ask, where were the psychics? Could not those who profess to help police solve crimes tell us what really happened to JonBenet Ramsey?

The fact is, psychics frequently tried to insinuate themselves into the Ramsey case. A lead detective on the case, Steve Thomas, tells us that—before politicization of the case and frustration with the Ramseys prompted him to resign—“a Beverly Hills psychic left multiple hours-long voice mail messages for me.” This was only one aspect of an avalanche of “unsolicited theories, possible suspects, and hate mail.” In addition, “Sketch artists offered everything from a Michael Jackson look-alike to ‘the Fly’ as the culprit,” and “Internet groupies passed along their ideas” (Thomas with Davis 2000, 111, 330–341).

I was already closely following the Ramsey case when in 1998 my friend, the great entertainer and author Steve Allen, sent me “a quick note, while on the usual run.” He mentioned “an alleged psychic,” consulted in unsolved deaths “such as the JonBenet case,” who had appeared on the previous day’s (April 27, 1998) LEEZA (Leeza Gibbons’s show). As Steve suggested, I obtained a copy of the program and learned it was a psychic I was quite familiar with, having been featured in my book, Psychic Sleuths (1994, 12, 42–59, 214, 238).

Her name was Dorothy Allison. From Nutley, New Jersey, she was a high-profile pretend psychic, with a string of failures to her credit, although one would think otherwise from her claims. Allison told Leeza’s audience that JonBenet’s parents were “absolutely not” involved and that the actual killer was a former Ramsey handyman. She said she saw “connections” to Germany and Georgia, the numbers 2-8-9, and the names “Martin” and “Irving”—the latter, she said, being “the one I think that did this” (the murder). Allison worked with a police artist to create a drawing of the alleged killer (Nickell 2004, 252–257).

Shrewd psychics use a number of tricks to give the illusion they have visionary powers. Some obviously research cases, then use their best guesses to say something believable. A technique called “retrofitting” (after-the-fact matching) is often employed: The psychic offers several vague “clues,” trusting that after the true facts are known some may seem correct or they may be interpreted to fit, while those that do not are conveniently forgotten. Even sincere—but generally fantasy-prone—psychics can unintentionally fool themselves and others by saying whatever pops into their mind, since credulous people tend to count the hits and ignore (or favorably interpret) the misses.

None of Allison’s “clues” seemed to be of any help to law enforcement. The Boulder police noted that no one outside the Ramsey family was likely to have been involved in the death of JonBenet. Years passed, and in 2006, a forty-one-year-old man named John Mark Karr gained much attention when, arrested in Thailand, he “confessed” he was JonBenet’s long-sought killer. The credulous rushed to try to link Karr with the late Mrs. Allison’s pronouncements and drawing, claiming the resemblance of the latter to Karr was impressive. In fact, it was anything but (Nickell 2006). Moreover, neither DNA nor handwriting—or anything else—linked Karr to the crime scene, and he could not be placed in Colorado on or about December 26, 1996 (Fisher 2016). There were other false confessions as well (Ramsey with Chapian 2012, 173–174).

Other psychics fared no better than Allison. Most adopted one of the prevailing theories. For example, online psychic Marie Saint Clair saw an intruder, likely “homeless or a drifter” as supposedly indicated by “his bare feet”—but for which there was no evidence (“Can Psychics” 2016). One “consulting group,” PSI TECH, used what they term “Technical Remote Viewing” (TRV), “a breakthrough mind technology that allows a trained operative to consistently obtain accurate intuitively derived information, on demand” (“PSI TECH” 2016). The technique resulted in psychic-sounding impressions presented with jargon (“base line data points”). Among the “conclusions” was that the “murderer” worked in “an industrial plant located in a generally NE to SE direction from the murder site” (“Can Psychics” 2016). Of course there was no intruder, so all this was worthless.

Still other psychics focused on the Ramseys. For instance, Elizabeth Joyce from Chalfont, Pennsylvania, claimed, “JonBenet Ramsey’s mother’s spurned lover killed the baby beauty queen as retribution for his rejection” (“Can Psychics” 2016). Again, Amy Venezia, a “psychic medium” who says she speaks with dead celebrities, claimed to receive spirit communication from JonBenet. Allegedly, Patsy was jealous of her daughter and was sexually abusing her, while some “secret cabal” was behind the child’s “ritualistic” murder (“Did a Psychic” 2016).

We could continue, but perhaps this is enough to indicate the uselessness of psychics in the Ramsey case. The hypothesis I have presented—not an accusation but simply the most likely scenario provided by the best evidence—has led us where psychics never went. Hopefully, one day we shall know how close it is to the truth. Meanwhile, Ramsey family lawyer L. Lin Wood is suing—on behalf of Burke Ramsey—famed pathologist Werner Spitz (author of a major forensic textbook [Spitz 1993]). The $150 million defamation lawsuit stems from Spitz’s participation on a CBS documentary (Case2016) and other statements he was quoted as making (Stockman 2016).

Spitz advances Burke Ramsey as the killer and his parents as participants in a cover-up. My own hypothesis goes further, focusing on what must be seen as crucial: whether the blow to the head preceded or followed the garroting. If the latter, then the garrote was the probable unintentional cause of death. I think it unlikely the Ramseys added such a gruesome and unnecessary element to the corpse of their beloved child. If I am right, the death may not actually have been a murder after all, and the Ramseys only guilty of protecting their son.



Notes
  1. 1 The following were known to be missing from the house, in addition to the end piece of the paintbrush handle: the roll of black duct tape; a ransom-note practice page; and the presumed remainder of the white cord used in the bondage—all presumably removed as part of the cover-up (Douglas and Olshaker 2000, 73–74; Killing 2016).
  2. 2 I met with Gideon Epstein (then with the Bureau of Immigration and Naturalization) and Antonio Cantu (U.S. Secret Service) after they invited me for a VIP tour of their respective document laboratories, October 25, 1996, all of us having been involved in the case of Nazi war criminal John Demjanjuk.


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The March for Science

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On April 22, thousands of scientists and their supporters gathered in Washington, D.C., and at more than 600 other locations across the world to participate in the March for Science. Pegged to Earth Day, protesters voiced their opposition to proposed federal cuts to funding for scientific research and the planned rollback of environmental rules and public health regulations. They raised alarm over the appointment of political officials dismissive of climate change and of President Donald J. Trump’s false claims about vaccines and global warming.

Previous Democratic administrations have made questionable decisions on science policy, but regardless of where you stand politically, the actions so far of the Trump administration should be deeply disturbing to anyone who cares about the future of the scientific enterprise, much less the planet. Yet it is unlikely that the March for Science will have much of an impact on federal policy over the next few years. Instead, in the long run, the March for Science may have only deepened partisan differences, while jeopardizing trust in the impartiality and credibility of scientists.

Blind to Mistakes

“When you become scientifically literate, I claim, you become an environmentalist,” Bill Nye, an honorary cochair of the March for Science told the Washington Post (Gibson 2017). Many signs carried by protesters echoed that assumption, emphasizing themes like “Make America Smart Again,” “Science is the cure for bullshit,” and “Knowing stuff is good.”

Another March for Science sign quoted astrophysicist Neil de Grasse Tyson admirably stating that “I dream of a future where the truth is what shapes people’s politics, rather than politics shaping what people think is true.” Yet as risk communication expert David Ropeik (2017) countered, decades of social science research suggests that human cognition and decisions rarely if ever work in that way.

Humans are not robots. A deficit in science literacy is not why political leaders and the public disagree over climate change, vaccines, or government funding. By fundamentally misdiagnosing the causes of political conflict today, March for Science advocates may be undermining their own cause. Numerous studies show it is often the best educated and most scientifically literate who are prone to biased reasoning and false beliefs about contentious science issues. The reason for this surprising paradox is that individuals with higher science literacy tend to be more adept at recognizing arguments congenial to their partisan identity, are more attuned to what others like them think, are more likely to react to these cues in ideologically consistent ways, and tend to be more personally skilled at offering arguments to support their preexisting positions (National Academies 2017; Nisbet 2016).

For example, studies find that better educated conservatives who score higher on measures of basic science literacy are more likely to doubt the human causes of climate change. Their beliefs about climate science conform to their sense that actions to address climate change would mean more government regulation, which conservatives tend to oppose (Kahan 2015). Similarly, better educated liberals engage in biased processing of expert advice when forming opinions about the risks of natural gas fracking, genetically modified food, and nuclear energy. In this case, liberal fears are rooted in a generalized suspicion of technologies identified with large corporations (Nisbet et al. 2015).

The same relationship holds in relation to support for government funding of science. Liberals and conservatives who score low on science literacy tend to hold equivalent levels of support for science funding. But analysis shows that as science literacy increases, conservatives grow more opposed to funding while liberals grow more supportive, a shift in line with their differing beliefs about the role of government in society (Gauchat 2015).In sum, our beliefs about contentious science issues reflect who we are socially and politically. The better educated and more literate we are, the more adept we are at recognizing the connection between a political issue and our group identity and interests (Kahan 2015).

Similar factors influence policy decisions. As the late sociologist Dorothy Nelkin (1978) observed nearly forty years ago, political disputes such as those over climate change, vaccination, and scientific funding are fundamentally controversies over political control: Who gets to decide the priority that these issues should take over others, or the actions and costs taken to address problems? Which values, interpretations, groups, and worldviews matter and which should be given greatest weight?

For these reasons, much of the rationale behind the March for Science is not only off target, but the event itself and similar future activities may only intensify political deadlock rather than overcome it.

Staying Credible

Although the March for Science was framed as nonpartisan, the messaging leading up to and during the event was anything but helpful. Early on, reflecting contemporary debates on college campuses, organizers were besieged by concerns over issues related to inclusion and identity. Some criticized the organizers for not paying enough attention to these topics, which prompted the posting online of a diversity statement. In response, cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker tweeted: “Scientists’ March on Washington plan compromises its goals with anti-science PC/identity politics/hard-left rhetoric” (Sheridan and Facher 2017).

Twitter remained a source of controversy for organizers. A few days before the event, the official March for Science account declared that the U.S. bombing of an ISIS compound in Afghanistan was an example of how “science is weaponized against marginalized people.” The Tweet was later deleted, earning ridicule from right-wing bloggers (Kelly 2017).

On the day of the march, across cities, some participants donned pink “brain caps,” a reference to the pink “pussy caps” worn at the January 2017 Women’s March. In a similar tribute, T-shirts and signs declared “Keep your tiny hands off my science.” Many signs played on the official Hillary Clinton campaign theme “I’m with her,” with an arrow pointing to planet Earth instead. Some signs mocked Trump by employing allusions to science, referencing him as an “absolute zero” and “black hole.” Other cheeky slogans included “Less invasions, more equations,” and “I’ve seen smarter cabinets at IKEA” (Politi 2017).

In these cases, the March for Science constitutes a potentially hazardous misfire. By choosing public protest as a main strategy, and by voicing messages that have an obvious partisan and ideological slant, the March for Science made it that much easier for Americans to lean on their group identities in forming opinions about contentious issues.

A much discussed recent study published in Environmental Communi­cation, a journal where I serve as editor-in-chief, suggests that scientists may have more discretion to advocate on behalf of policy positions than they assumed, without hurting their credibility (Kotcher et al. 2017). Yet the preliminary study did not test what happens to the perceived credibility of scientists when those policy positions are argued in the context of clear partisan messages communicated by way of protests such as the March for Science.

Since the 1970s, public confidence in almost every major institution has plummeted. Yet confidence in the leadership of the scientific community has remained strong (Funk and Kennedy 2017). As a consequence, scientists in society today enjoy almost unrivaled communication capital. The challenge they face following the March for Science is how to use this capital wisely and effectively.



References

  • Funk, C., and B. Kennedy. 2017. Public confidence in scientists has remained stable for decades. Pew Research Center (April 6).
  • Gauchat, G. 2015. The political context of science in the United States: Public acceptance of evidence-based policy and science funding. Social Forces 2: 723–746.
  • Gibson, C. 2017. The March for Science was a moment made for Nye. The Washington Post (April 23).
  • Kahan, D. 2015. Climate science communication and the measurement problem. Political Psychology 36(S1): 1–43.
  • Kelly, J. 2017. March for science: Sympathy for our Enemies. National Review (April 1).
  • Kotcher, J.E., T.A. Myers, E.K. Vraga, et al. 2017. Does engagement in advocacy hurt the credibility of scientists? Results from a randomized national survey experiment. Environmental Communication 11(3): 415–429.
  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Communicating Sci­ence Effectively: A Research Agenda. Wash­ington, DC: The National Academies Press.
  • Nelkin, D. 1978. Controversy: Politics of Technical Decisions. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publicans.
  • Nisbet, M.C. 2016. The science literacy paradox: Why really smart people often have the most biased opinions. Skeptical Inquirer 40(5): 21–23.
  • Nisbet, E.C., K.E. Cooper, and R.K. Garrett. 2015. The partisan brain: How dissonant science messages lead conservatives and liberals to (dis) trust science. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658(1): 36–66.
  • Politi, D. 2017. Here are some of the best signs from the March for Science. Slate.com (April 22).
  • Ropeik, D. 2017. Why the March for Science failed as demonstrated by its own protest signs. Medium.com (April 24).
  • Sheridan, K., and L. Facher. 2017. Science march on Washington, billed as historic, plagued by organizational turmoil. STAT.com (March 22).

An Investigation of the Missing411 Conspiracy

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People are going missing from America’s national parks under mysterious circumstances, and the National Park Service is obstructing attempts to investigate these events. At least that’s the claim made by author David Paulides in his “Missing411” series of books.

Paulides has classified over 1,440 missing persons cases under the Missing411 label. At its core, Missing411 is the vague claim that something unusual is occurring related to deaths and disappearances in national parks. The concept has been steeped in the milieu of conspiracy and the supernatural, as Paulides frequently appears on paranormal-oriented radio shows and podcasts to discuss it. A forthcoming documentary appears to be in the works as well. (I have been unable to ascertain the meaning of 411. I can only speculate that it’s a slang synonym for “information,” although “MissingInfo” isn’t much better of a moniker.)

Interestingly, Paulides has consistently avoided providing any explanation for the cause of these supposedly mysterious disappearances. He’s joined the ranks of those who are “just asking questions.” One might assume Paulides, founder of the “North American Bigfoot Search” and author of the book Tribal Bigfoot, would arrive at a cryptozoological explanation. While this hasn’t happened yet, it may, as Missing411 appears to be an evolving mythology.

When pressed for a causal explanation, Paulides has remained evasive. He sees his role as an investigator pointing to a problem, not a cause. Alien abduction, ghost involvement, faerie kidnappers, and transdimensional chupacabra can all be swapped in and out as possible explanations for this apparent mystery. The topic seems to be constructed with intentional ambiguity, promoting any nonscientific idea to fill in as a possible explanation.

Despite Paulides’s appearances on Coast to Coast AM, talks at MUFON conferences, and interest in Bigfoot, proper skepticism requires us to entertain the Missing411 claims independently of his history and other beliefs. We should not dismiss this idea outright, in the same way we wouldn’t dismiss Linus Pauling’s legacy in chemistry because of his pseudoscientific beliefs about vitamin C.

Could it be that an underfunded and understaffed National Park Service and related police departments lack the tools and ingenuity to determine that an unidentified serial killer is at work in the parks? This is not outside the realm of possibility. Though Paulides has never put this particular claim forward, there is a nontrivial possibility he’s inadvertently produced a dataset from which this conclusion could emerge. Of course, it does seem that Paulides leans toward more supernatural conclusions.

I was fascinated by the intrigue of the Missing411. Its Blair Witch vibe would have me eagerly in line on opening night of a Hollywood thriller with this premise. My curiosity was also piqued by the vagueness of the claim and the remote possibility that Paulides could be onto something legitimate—but with a practical explanation.

I embarked on a skeptical investigation using some of the approaches I’ve learned here in the pages of Skeptical Inquirer and in similar books on the subject. I determined that following “Hyman’s Categorical Imperative”—do not try to explain something until you are sure there is something to be explained—was the best place to start.

Are the supposed Missing411 cases real cases or works of fiction? I used a random number generator to select several pages from Missing411: Western United States & Canada to conduct a detailed verification for the first case on each page. Every case I checked related to real events; Paulides is not making these disappearances up.

One case involved a hunter who never returned from his hunt. His car was found but his body was never recovered. A second case involved a hiker. Paulides mentions that “law enforcement officials have said they believe foul play was involved.” As with any unexpected loss of life, both cases are tragedies. Yet both cases are banal and devoid of any apparently unusual qualities.

In another case, two stranded parents with known drug problems had a car breakdown during a snowstorm. Paulides reports the parents’ remains were found scattered. I was unable to confirm the scattering, but I was able to confirm their infant child was never located.

The oldest victim in my audit involved a sixty-nine-yearold hiker climbing Mount Shasta, moving alone in wind conditions estimated at seventy miles per hour. Once he split off from his companions, he was never seen again.

I was finding these cases to be fairly mundane until I arrived at the hiker’s disappearance. Following a deadpan factual reporting of the details, Paulides quotes a local person saying cryptically that “according to local legend, beings called Lemurians lived underneath Mount Shasta . . . maybe the Lemurians got Carl.”

The text is decorated sparsely with this and other head-scratching nonsequiturs. For example, in the last case of my brief audit, a woman named Amy disappears while exercising. Her body was never recovered but her wristwatch was found in a river bed years later. Paulides points out that years after that, a woman named Ann disappeared from the same place. He felt the need to point out that “both of their names start with A, and their first names only had three letters.” I can only presume Paulides is open to the possibility that some nefarious Batman villain is at work in this area. Beware the three-lettered killer!

It’s moments like these—or his statement that “the fact that berries and berry bushes play a common role in many disappearances is quite intriguing”—sometimes make me wonder if this work isn’t a satire. Could such a statement be a wink to the reader? Or could this be a viral marketing technique for an upcoming video game or feature film? While not implausible, I don’t think that’s the case.

Everything about Paulides’s work seems sincere. My interpretation is that he genuinely believes something mysterious is going on. He’s factual in most of his reporting and generally respectful of the missing. Never is someone faulted for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. If anything, Paulides praises the missing for being in peak physical condition and deeply experienced with outdoors activities, making their disappearance by natural causes seemingly all the more unlikely.

Not all missing persons cases qualify as Missing411. Paulides describes the “pattern” of these cases. The pattern consists of some loose criteria such as canine rescue dogs not being able to pick up a scent. If true in a given case, it’s evidence for labeling it as Missing411; if false, this contrary fact can be ignored.

Another optional criterion is victims being found deceased with their clothing removed—typically pants and shoes or boots. Paulides is quick to point out that voluntary removal of such items is totally irrational in most circumstances. I didn’t know what to make of this detail until someone pointed me to the phenomenon of paradoxical undressing. This is a condition sometimes found in people experiencing hypothermia who feel irrationally hot and remove clothing to cool themselves. I presume Paulides, like me, must not have been aware of this fairly simple explanation.

Another optional criterion is cases where a deceased body is recovered but found a distance or elevation away from their last known whereabouts that “defies common sense.” Yet Paulides doesn’t present any Twilight Zone-esque cases of people showing up in bafflingly distant places. In truth, most of these supposedly common sense–defying distances are just a few miles.

Granted, terrain and conditions have a huge impact on lost hikers. I don’t want to dismiss anything outright due to low magnitude, but I don’t find anything exceptional in the cases I reviewed. The “strangest” case I recall was a hiker who was found three days later fourteen miles from his last known location. To me, as a hiker, this is not an implausible distance to cover in that time.

It would be interesting if Paulides would rank his cases by inexplicable distance. If I found nothing odd about the best example, it would be simple to dismiss his second best, and so on.

Failing to meet these and any of the other criteria of the Missing411 “pattern”does not disqualify a case from fitting in the category. In fact, actually being missing is not technically required! A minority of cases in the catalog involve missing people who were recovered alive. Curiously, these all seem to be young children. I suppose an adult, gone missing and found, can self-attest that their missing time was explained by ordinary circumstances. Children may not have the same developmental functions to coherently account for their whereabouts, thus leaving a gap to be filled with the possibility of something unusual.

With such imprecise criteria, it seems Paulides considers himself the only person fully qualified to identify a missing persons case as belonging to the Missing411 or not.

On the whole, I find no outstanding cases in my research of Missing411. There’s a surprising absence of anything spooky. No one is found a decade later without having aged a day; a Missing411 victim hasn’t appeared enigmatically on the opposite side of the world; no cryptic notes or cyphers appear in the books’ pages. The cases are disappointingly typical of what one would expect from a missing persons case.

The proposed unusualness of these cases seems hardly greater than one would find for a rare and unplanned occurrence such as a disappearance.

But could there be a mystery in the aggregate of these cases? Perhaps in total they paint a grim picture. Unfortunately, Paulides does not explore this idea. The argument (such as it is) seems more of the form of “look at all these cases; even if one or two are explainable, they can’t all be explainable.” No matter how many half-truths one collects, they never sum to a whole truth. To be sure, within the Missing411 dataset are cases of unsolved foul play, kidnappings, private suicides, animal attacks, people looking to disappear and assume new identities, and other natural explanations.

Perhaps we might find room for unusual observations if we consider the frequency of these events. People disappear. Of all the disappearances in a year, are a suspicious number of them coming from national parks? In truth that’s a difficult statistic to analyze. People do disappear, and any disappeared person must have a last known location. However, that doesn’t make every location on the planet equally probable for generating a missing person. I looked into this briefly and found that if anything, you’re less likely to disappear from a national park than from a major city.

I’m willing to play along a bit. Let’s assume a disproportionately high number of disappearances occur in national parks. What exactly is the responsibility of the National Park Service (NPS)?

Paulides has called the day-to-day operators of the parks “good people.” He takes issue with the administration, finding them somewhere between incompetent and complicit. He’s frustrated with their response to his FOIA requests and accuses them of obstructing his investigation. There are moments where it seems he’s implicating the NPS in a conspiracy, but other times his perspective is softer. He claims, “It would be incorrect to state that the [NPS] had not cooperated with my efforts.... However, in some cases they were evasive.” Yet elsewhere, Paulides is frustrated the NPS won’t produce the documentation he seeks. He asserts, “I believe they do have the data, and that the data they possess would shock the average American citizen.”

I have confirmed he made many FOIA requests, and some were denied. Apparently, to learn more, I would need to initiate an FOIA request for a list of the FOIA requests Paulides made. You can do that! I don’t think I have much to learn, however. Paulides doesn’t seem to lie about details. With multiple books under his belt, satisfying his requests might indeed be costly. If the NPS has been dismissive or evasive, that’s not proof of anything mysterious.

I spoke with an NPS public affairs representative about the handling of missing person cases. Cases are entered into the National Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (NLETS). This is a federated data sharing system used by law enforcement nationwide. I await proof that any case has failed to be entered.

To be fair, it would not shock me if independent law enforcement organizations did not have the resources to extensively review the NLETS. If a suspicious pattern existed, it could plausibly go unnoticed. Of course, the burden of proof is on the claimant.

I got in touch with former ranger Andrea Lankford, author of Ranger Confidential. She brought to my attention that there exists some degree of controversy about the operation of the parks and the ranger system.

It’s a broad topic, but I’ll give some highlights. Rangers may be asked to wear too many hats without appropriate training. Some believe the parks are understaffed. There’s a perspective that rangers are not equipped to handle some law enforcement activities that fall under their jurisdiction. Some people call for reform.

I’ve yet to reach a personal conclusion on these side topics. It is an intriguing discussion, but not one that has anything to do with making disappearances unusual. If the NPS is poorly structured, over-extended, incompetent, or corrupt, it would be unfortunate but not mysterious.

Surely Paulides knows of these claims. I am unaware if he’s taken a position. Whether he agrees with criticisms of the ranger system or not, it’s curious a comment is not more prominent in his research. I encountered no place where he weighs in.

Paulides is also displeased with the response of the media, stating, “news services sometimes temper the story or don’t ask specific questions in regards to the scene.”This hovers between accusations of conspiracy or incompetence. It’s a claim made broadly without any specific evidence. What specific evidence are the news media failing to ask about and the NPS trying to silence?

I’ve exhausted my exploration for anything genuinely unusual. After careful review, to me, not a single case stands out nor do the frequencies involved seem outside of expectations.

The lack of any specific claim affords this idea the elasticity to be unfalsifiable, and its sinister veneer makes it attractive to the conspiracy-minded. From the way in which I’ve observed it proliferate through the paranormal media, I suspect Missing411 will remain a curio shelf theory for some time to come. When any missing persons case comes up, believers may be reminded of it, giving it a small injection of life in their cultural consciousness.

For me, as someone who visited his first national park (Yosemite) last year, I’m grateful we have these national treasures. I look forward to visiting many more with only the most prosaic of concerns any responsible hiker or camper should have.

A Good Analysis of Bad UFO Information

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Bad UFOs: Critical Thinking About UFO Claims. By Robert Sheaffer. CreateSpace Independent Publishing, 2016. ISBN: 978-1519260840. 292 pp. Softcover, $18.95; Kindle, $8.95.



Robert Sheaffer is one of the—if not the—world’s top experts on the subject of unidentified flying objects and claims of extraterrestrials, and he shares that knowledge in his new book Bad UFOs. A tireless gadfly to generations of UFO promoters too numerous to count, Sheaffer is author of UFO Sightings (published in 1998 by Prometheus Books) and until recently a regular columnist for this magazine. There are perhaps more in-depth scholars of claims of specific aspects of UFO reports, but Sheaffer is in a league of his own when it comes to encyclopedic knowledge of a surprisingly diverse topic.

Over the course of ten chapters and nearly 300 pages, Sheaffer covers an astonishing variety of claims, including the so-called “mystery missile” seen off the California coast in 2010; the Belgian UFO flap that author Leslie Kean unwisely endorsed; a plethora of UFO videos (debunked by Sheaffer, Mick West, and others); Steve Greer’s UFO crusade, doomsdays, and much more. Though many “classic” and high profile reports and sightings are decades old (stale, widely debunked stories by Travis Walton, Whitley Strieber, Betty and Barney Hill, and so on), it’s important to remember that UFOs remain the subject of discussion to this day.Though UFO reports have lost some of their profile (many UFO videos are widely debunked online within hours or days), new ones still surface, and Sheaffer is often on the front lines of analyzing them.

One of the most important chapters—and unfortunately one of the shortest—is the final, titled “UFO Skeptics Are from Mars, UFO Proponents Are from Venus.” This celestial reference plays on a popular—if somewhat pseudoscientific—relationship book title, and it really is true that skeptics and believers approach evidence in different ways and through different prisms, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the field of UFOs. Even when UFO proponents’ outlandish claims have been definitively debunked (for example in the Roswell slides case; see Sheaffer’s “The ‘Roswell Slides’ Fiasco: UFOlogy’s Biggest Black Eye,” SI, September/October 2015), they rarely acknowledge their mistakes or demonstrate a sincere resolve to avoid them in the future. This problem plagues many areas of the “unexplained” but is particularly common in UFOlogy.

Bad UFOs is especially useful for those who want to stay up to date on UFOs and associated claims. This is crucial because “mysterious” UFO reports may be conclusively solved years (or even decades) after they occur, for example through hoaxer confessions, improved techniques for analyzing photos and videos, declassified information, and so on. It is rare for books to be updated with the new information, and updates to UFO proponent books (the vast bulk of publications on the topic) are made slowly and grudgingly (if at all). Sheaffer performs a huge—and largely unappreciated—public service in his recently retired SI “Psychic Vibrations” column, in Bad UFOs, and on his blog (at www.debunker.com) of keeping his audience current on old and new claims.

There are a few minor problems and oddities in the book, mostly related to its formatting. Some words are boldfaced for no clear reason, for example, and the book’s origin as a series of columns, articles, and blogs results in a slightly disjointed tone. Though the book has an index and a general reference section, the lack of specific intext references and citations somewhat thwarts the book’s usability for readers who want to find out more information or check original sources. These minor quibbles don’t detract from the worldclass wealth of knowledge and expertise found in Bad UFOs, and it’s essential reading for anyone who wants a skeptical analysis of the past few decades of UFO research and news stories.

Looking Back at the 2017 New Zealand Skeptics Conference

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December 2-4, 2016, found me and sixty other like-minded people at the New Zealand Skeptics Conference held in beautiful Queenstown on the South Island of New Zealand. The NZ Skeptics have continually been holding annual conferences since their club’s formation in 1986.  A group of friends and associates were following the beginning of CSICOP in America and decided that they would also form a group. At the formation they discussed using the American spelling of “skeptic” to even more closely associate themselves with the Americans and called themselves NZCSICOP, which eventually changed to NZ Skeptics.

The NZ Skeptics hold a yearly conference, rotating locations, each sponsored by a local group: Auckland, Dunedin, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Rotorua. Last year in 2016 was the first year they had held it in Queenstown, and it was the first time the Friends of Science and Reason (Southland Invercargill Skeptics), led by Brad MacClure, organized the event. Brad explained to me that they were interested in a mix of pure science as well as skepticism topics and wanted to use local speakers. They knew that holding a regional conference in a small city would mean lower attendance numbers, but they also knew that this would mean a more intimate relationship between speakers and audience.  And that is exactly what transpired.

Before I get to the lectures, I do need to mention the venue. I’d never been to New Zealand before and didn’t really know what to expect, other than that everyone had said how beautiful it was. When our plane landed in Queenstown the flight crew told us before we got off of the plane that we were not allowed to stop on the tarmac to take photos or videos but had to keep moving until we got to the terminal. I thought that was odd, but when we disembarked and looked at the vast snow-topped mountains and I felt my heart go WOW. As soon as I got inside the terminal I did have to take a photo. My son Stirling and I stayed in Queenstown for a few days before moving to the location of the conference, which was held in Frankton, about a fifteen-minute drive away, where the airport is located. In fact, the conference was held inside the St. John Ambulance building, a brief walk from the airport. When I was giving my lecture, it was difficult to stay focused on the audience because the view from my vantage point looking beyond the audience was amazing.  When people tell you that New Zealand is Middle Earth, they are telling you the truth. Okay, enough with the location, now on to the conference itself.

Friday afternoon and evening was the time to meet-and-greet. So much food! They had many volunteers to put this on, but Sheree McNatty went above and beyond the call of duty by handling all the cooking. Chrissie MacClure and Helen Adair were also major helpers. Mark Honeychurch (chair of NZ Skeptics) put on a ten-round game of skeptic pub trivia. It was a lot of fun and great to be on a team as there were several questions about New Zealand paranormal topics. This was my first introduction to the fact that New Zealand has a diverse skeptic world of its own. One of my biggest joys came when the theme was caricatures of famous skeptics and Eugenie Scott’s face came up and one team wrote down “Susan Gerbic.” That was quite a thrill for me.

Photo by Craig Shearer

First up on Saturday morning was Australian Loretta Marron. She is the chief executive officer of the organization Friends of Science in Medicine. She is known as the “Jelly Bean Lady” by the media after a televised test where she substituted jelly beans for magnets to compare with an unmodified magnetized mattress underlay that was purported to cure various ailments. She has found she has more success explaining medical claims to the public when she does not use jargon and technical terms. In 2014, she was awarded the Order of Australia Medal for her service to community health, and she has won the Australian Skeptic of the Year Award three times. Marron’s lecture at the conference was focused on activism. She encouraged the audience to complain when they see fraudulent health claims. She advised that they go to their government representatives or to the media and make a fuss, and to be sure to document everything.

Local veterinarian Mark Bryan spoke to us about his work with cattle medicine. He had not spoken to an audience of skeptics before and wasn’t sure what would interest the audience. So he talked about his work with VetSouth and the difficulty of finding and using statistics in research in order to best promote good veterinary practices. His service created an app called Disease and Mortality Incident Tracker—dam-iT—for vets to track mortality and diseases in cattle. He also discussed antibiotics and a pilot program called Welfarm they have been using for three years.

After morning tea, the host of The Skeptic Zone podcast, Richard Saunders, gave his talk on strange energy devices, “Too Good to be True.” He said that people who support these devices generally lack a good understanding of basic science. They hold a belief in New Age concepts, lack training, and in many cases just have a willful ignorance. They are not interested in looking into any criticism of their product. They tend to be distrustful and are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories; they also have a financial and emotional investment in the device.

My lecture on Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia was next. I tried to personalize the lecture talking about the work my team had done in preparation for the conference. Julie and Harald Berents, two GSoW members recruited at the 2015 Australian Skeptics Conference in Brisbane, were in the audience. They had worked for weeks to put together Wikipedia pages for several speakers, including Mark Bryan, Andrew Digby, and Tania Lineham. Prior to the conference, GSoW editor Greg Neilson had created a Wikipedia page for Loretta Marron, and then it was translated into Russian by GSoW editor Svetlana Bavykina.

Incidentally, Julie met an attendee at the conference who she learned needed a Wikipedia page. A few months later, Felicity Goodyear-Smith’s page was released. This is another great reason it’s so important to physically attend conferences. When I look back on these pages, I see many photographs and audio clips that were created during the conference.      

After lunch, we heard from Tania Lineham. She is a science teacher in New Zealand who won the prestigious Prime Minister’s Science Teacher Prize in 2015. Tania shared with us many of her teaching best practices by actually bringing in the equipment that smoked, bubbled, steamed, and rumbled on stage. The sixty audience members were transported back to their childhood love of science. I think we all agreed that we would have more people working in STEM fields if we had more science teachers like Lineham.

A much anticipated lecture from Andrew Digby followed. Digby is both an astronomer and an ecologist whose work with endangered New Zealand birds, mainly the Kākāpō, created plenty of excitement in the room. Harald had been working on Digby’s Wikipedia page for weeks in advance of the conference, and I had read many variations of it, which led me to read all about the Kākāpō. Listening to the lecture about how ecologists are using technology to save these flightless birds was just fascinating. Digby is working to crowdfund the genome-sequencing of every living adult Kākāpō to improve the breeding program. Fewer than 200 of them live on the three predator-free islands in New Zealand. We learned about the Takahē, another flightless and severely endangered bird with under 300 adults. Digby works as a scientist on the Takahē Recovery project. Afternoon Tea followed Digby’s talk. This, and a lack of Dr. Pepper and root beer, made it very clear I was not in California anymore!

Scott Kennedy was the perfect conclusion at the end of a long day of terrific lectures. He spoke to us about music—actually the evolution of popular music. It was really fascinating to see how musicians build on the work of other musicians, and how with a change of stage presence and attitude they appeared to create a brand-new genre.

The evening was not over. We boarded a hired bus for a winding but beautiful trip to Puzzling World in Wanaka, New Zealand. It was quite a ride, at least forty-five minutes, but founder Stuart Landsborough is a member of the NZ Skeptics, so we were given a private VIP visit to the popular attraction. More about Puzzling World will feature in a later Skeptical Inquirer online special article.

Day 3 for me began with a walk from my hotel to the conference by myself during which I got so badly lost that I almost missed my own morning lecture. Yep, I was due to speak again. This time I spoke about my work with psychics who I un-affectionately call “grief vampires.” I talked about past sting operations and how cold and hot readings seem to work. When I explained how many Wikipedia page views these psychics get, and how articles written by skeptics can be used to support facts on these Wikipedia pages, I looked out at the audience and saw virtual light bulbs appear over many of their heads. I think that a lot of people didn’t realize that psychics are still very popular and that there are many different avenues open to skeptics to counter their claims of communicating with the dead.

Mark Hanna spoke to us about his work submitting complaints to the regulatory boards of New Zealand about alternative healthcare products and practices. He is known as a consumer advocate and science communicator. Hanna often uses Google Alerts and Freedom of Information legislation to keep informed. In 2014, Hanna complained about Amber Teething Necklaces to the Advertising Standards Authority, and sixteen complaints were upheld. He managed to get an article that supported colloidal silver as a medical supplement removed from the Stuff.co.nz website after he emailed them with his concerns about its efficacy. And he pulled data about acupuncture from the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) and New Zealand Ministry of Health to discover that the ACC is fully aware that they are spending significant amounts of money on acupuncture that they themselves view as ineffective.

Photo by Craig Shearer

While all the lectures were excellent, and I was now fatigued from the whole conference experience, I think I learned the most from Catherine Low’s lecture on her work with the Students for High-Impact Charity. It was the last lecture of the conference, and it challenged beliefs that I’ve long held with very little thought. She explained why some charities are not making good use of your money. I’ve heard that before, but she went beyond that and explained how you can make a bigger impact on society with a smaller donation. You just have to get past your pre-conceived beliefs. One really great example she gave was charity for the blind. Catherine explained that one seeing-eye dog given to one person costs about $5,000 dollars. Getting that dog is a life-changing experience for that person and it feels really good to see them around you. But there are medical procedures that can be done for $25 in Africa that will allow people to see again. This treatment is so inexpensive that in Western countries we think nothing of it. The problem is that the average person donating money will probably never see the results. It does not feel the same knowing you have given sight to someone on the other side of the world; maybe you don’t feel like the money is actually going to the charity but instead to governments as bribes and embezzlement.  There was a lot crammed into her talk that I can’t get into in this little article, but really it made me rethink many things that I didn’t know were problems. 

We ended the conference with a panel discussion by the speakers. The question was, “With twenty minutes a week, what can you do to save the world?” The answers were quite amazing.

I was left so impressed with the quality of the speakers and the organization that I can’t fit it all here. I’ve been to many skeptic conferences over the past fifteen years or so, each one with its own flavor and unique style. This one was intimate and friendly, and even though I’m writing this article seven months after attending, I’m still feeling that I got some great information from it, far more information than I would have learned by sitting at home watching the YouTube videos as they uploaded. The memories are terrific. I was able to take some excellent photos, which I’ve printed and look at every day. I shot videos and collected audio. But more important to me were the people I met, many of whom I still interact with on Facebook. I can’t wait until they ask me back so I can see them again. Yes, I know conferences can be expensive; it’s difficult taking time off from work, and who is going to water the plants? And what about the dog? You might not be able to go to New Zealand, but there are conferences happening all over the world, maybe one nearby. You just need to find a way to make it happen. Go! I promise you that you won’t regret it. 

For more information about the NZ skeptics – check them out here at their website http://skeptics.nz/

On Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NZ_Skeptics

And subscribe to the NZ skeptics YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/user/NZSkepticsSociety

Also here is the playlist to the videos I created from the conference. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7VAuaQDhPTWN635v6Z01DdMwYFpbAxWb

Thank you GSoW editors Ryan Harding, Stuart Jones, and Gene Roseberry for turning my words into something more readable.

Enter the Skeptic Zone: An Interview with CSICon Speaker, Richard Saunders

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Richard Saunders is twice president of the Australian Skeptics, founder of the popular Sydney Skeptics in the Pub event, actor, and also a professional origamist. He can be heard on his weekly podcast, The Skeptic Zone.



Susan Gerbic: Richard, it’s so great to talk to you today. I’ve just received the fabulous news that you will be joining us for CSICon this October. I have been an active listener of your podcast The Skeptic Zone for many years and have been privileged to have been interviewed on the show also. You are a big supporter of others in our community, giving airtime to local groups and projects across the world, sometimes in languages other than English. We’ve crossed paths in this tiny world of ours many times, and I’m so happy to be able to count you among my friends. So, gush gush, I’m such a fan. To the very few people who don’t know who you are, can you please give readers a brief bio?

Richard Saunders: You are very kind indeed, but I am also very happy to know you like the Skeptic Zone Podcast. My reporters do such good work in bringing the world interesting skeptical reports each week. As for me, I’m just a guy from Australia who loved hearing about mysteries way back in the 1970s and went looking for answers. Over the years I picked up many skills that have come in handy such as audio and video editing and performing and public speaking, so I use them to aid the outreach of science.

Gerbic: You have been doing this skepticism thing for many years; TV, radio, podcasts, videos, and activism galore. Are you still surprised at anything?

Saunders: Not sure anything in the paranormal has ever really surprised me apart from the early days when I was surprised people would really believe in something I thought was ridiculous. But now that I know how people from all walks of life will believe in just about anything, it no longer amazes me…. Well, maybe sometimes. But at least I understand this is the case.

Gerbic: We have seen so much change in the skeptic community over the years with the invention of social media like Facebook and Twitter. Younger people in our community seem to think that drama among us is a new creation. Where do you think social media fit in the popularization of pseudoscience? On one had it makes it easier to spread; on the other hand it makes it easier to counteract.

Saunders: Social media is a boom for pseudoscience but also for science. Is it like an arms race? We are at core supporting science and the method of science when it comes to investigation and inquiry of ideas that challenge current thinking of the laws of nature, and that's what I hope is reflected in our social media.

Gerbic: Let’s talk for a moment about one of my favorite projects you have done, the Vaccination Chronicles. I think it was brilliant and because people have forgotten how bad it was before vaccines, it is a very needed educational aid. Please tell readers what this video was all about and I would love to hear what feedback you have received from it.

Saunders: This is the 30-minute documentary, free to view online (unlike VaXXed), aimed at telling young parents of today about the real horrors faced by parents of only a couple of generations ago, when many saw their babies die from what we call now “vaccine preventable diseases.” Real people with real stories. Lots of positive feedback, but the lack of livid blogs about it and the lack of threats from the anti-vaxxers may mean it went under their radar. Hard to say.

Gerbic: You will be at CSICon, interacting with your fans and making new ones. I suppose you are going to bring some Australian candy. In my opinion, you can leave the Musk Sticks at home. What else do you have in store for us at the conference?

Saunders: At the moment, I am due to appear on a panel to discuss general science and outreach. I am able and ready to also take part in whatever activities CSI sees fit. With the con still some time away, you never know what I’ll end up doing. Rest assured I’ll bring lots of Musk Sticks and origami paper! I’ll also be reporting on the con for the Skeptic Zone and interviewing guest speakers and attendees alike.

Gerbic: I had a blast hanging out with you at the NZ Skeptic conference in December 2016. I’ve never had anyone explain the rules of cricket to me in a way I actually understood. You just came back from NECSS and will be at the Australian Conference in Sydney right after CSICon. I think you enjoy skeptic conferences almost as much as I do. What do you say when people say we are just preaching to the choir?

Saunders: I have a reputation for being at lots of international conventions, but that is over many years so I don’t get about as much as people think. In 2016 for example the only skeptical con I went to was in New Zealand. It can be said that at cons we do preach to the choir… so is someone going to call the police? So what? We also “teach to the choir.” The other 51 weeks of the year we are out there investigating, bringing bad science to the attention of authorities, sponsoring things like young scientists here in Australia, reporting to the world via podcasts, and so on.

Gerbic: Let’s say someone reaches out to you and tells you that they are wanting to become more active in scientific skepticism but don’t know where to start. What advice would you give them?

Saunders: Before you jump in, read, read, read. Start with James Randi’s Flim-Flam then watch, watch, watch the many videos free on YouTube. Again, I recommend James Randi with “Secrets of the Psychics,” “James Randi in Australia,” and “James Randi: Psychic Investigator.” This is just the tip of the iceberg and I would also recommend Richard Dawkins’s “The Enemies of Reason.” But if you are already at the point where you know what is what when it comes to the skeptical approach, then contacting your local skeptical group is the thing to do. They are the ones who hopefully can not only offer you information and ways to be active but also social opportunities like Skeptics in the Pub.

Gerbic: I want to mention that you and your podcast, The Skeptic Zone, have been so supportive to the GSoW project. I have been interviewed many times on the show and you have run promos and interviewed several of my other editors, Sharon Roney at NECSS (she called me a tough task manager I think). I’m looking over my editor list right now. I always ask them where did they learn of GSoW first, and I see ten names that give the Zone the credit, and only two of them are Australians. I just looked at the Wikipedia page views six of them created and they have generated 556,186 views. Think about all the people, because of your support, they have educated outside our choir. Thank you!

At the NZ conference, we were asked on the activism panel what people can do with 20 minutes a week to “change the world.” I liked your answers. Can you give readers here some ideas?

Saunders: It's an oldie but a goodie, but you can always write to your government representative. 

Gerbic: And please give us an update on what is happening with the Skeptic Zone kitties.

Saunders: Part of the thinking of the Skeptic Zone is to make listeners feel they too are a part of the show. Talking about the kittens (now cats) Hen and Maud, gives the show a certain feel. And it’s true they do jump up on the desk, knock over the mic, sit on the computer, and make trouble. It’s fun to let people know.

Gerbic: CSICon has the unique element of a Halloween party on Saturday night. This year the theme is a zombie disco. I’m trying to organize a group of zombies to dance to Michael Jackson’s “Thriller.” Are you in?  I visited Australia in October 2015 and it wasn’t a thing there at all; it’s a unique opportunity for you to live as an American for a night. You have a costume idea?

Saunders: I'll join in. Hmm. How about a giant jar of Vegemite?


Puzzling World - NZ

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Photo by Susan Gerbic

On the South Island of New Zealand, near the town of Wanaka, resides a tourist attraction that will make puzzle fans drool. It is Stuart Landsborough’s Puzzling World. Stuart and his wife Jan purchased seven acres of land and built a giant maze that opened in 1973. According to their website, they attracted 17,600 people in their first year. Last year almost 200,000 people visited the attraction. Stuart retired in 2004 and now it is in the hands of his family who continue to expand the exhibits. http://www.puzzlingworld.co.nz/

Why am I writing about Puzzling World from my desk in California? What does this all have to do with scientific skepticism? Stuart is a member of the NZ Skeptics and hosted the 2016 Queenstown conference awards dinner at the venue. Puzzling World ties even closer to scientific skepticism because, for years, Stuart has offered a $100,000 prize for anyone who can use their psychic powers to remotely find a piece of paper located on the property.

First, let me tell you about this curious attraction. I had never heard of the place and really didn’t know what to expect. I thought it was going to be one those mirrored rooms like at a carnival. I didn’t expect what I found there at all. The facade looks like four small, brightly painted buildings, built at very strange angles, fanned out like a hand of cards. It is quite a sight to see.

When I entered the main building, one of the first things I saw was a Jerry Andrus illusion, hanging from the ceiling. Also located in the foyer was a giant suspended faucet pouring water into a well. Everything in the room was designed to trick your eyes and tease your senses. I just wanted to stand in one place and look around; even the ceiling and wall supports were a visual treat.

There was an exhibit devoted to tricky marketing advertisements, very clever stuff that I’m sure sold whatever products they marketed. One that caught my eye was called “Guerrilla Marketing;” it was from Germany and called “Wrong Job,” showing people purchasing items at a vending machine or at a laundromat, even an airport scanner machine. The trick is that on the outside of the machine; there is a realistic image of a person inside the machine, sweating and cramped, scrubbing the clothes, looking through luggage with a flashlight or preparing the items for the vending machine.

Other exhibits in this area showed AT&T products painted to look like human hands and arms, in a variety of countries around the world; this promotes their “roaming” network. Just amazing art. There were company logos that told different stories, depending on how they were looked at. Interestingly, people see the FedEx logo often yet many will never notice that, in one version, there is a hidden arrow between the E and the x. There was a campaign for Schick NZ called “Free Your Skin,” with bearded men; only looking closely would you see that the “beards” were actually furry animals.

In another corner, you will find an exact duplicate of Stuart Landsborough sitting in a chair with his coffee cup in his lap. Stuart told us that he has sometimes removed the replica and sat in the chair himself, freaking out his family. What a sense of humor he has. Yikes!

We arrived outside visiting hours so we had free access to the whole building. Richard Saunders and I recorded a lot of video and audio for YouTube and his podcast The Skeptic Zone. He was suffering with a nasty cold, but he was a trooper and plodded on, even though some of the rooms wreaked havoc with his balance. We had a blast.

There was also a room with large checkers on the floor.Standing on one side of the room you seemed to be a giant, but if you walked to the other side you felt tiny. Another large room had faces painted on the wall that followed you as you moved around. This is the “hollow-face” illusion; look it up on Wikipedia! The gaze of these faces really do seem to follow you around the room.

All around the venue, hanging everywhere on the walls, are quilts and art that are optical illusions.

Photo by Craig Shearer

The sloping room is very unsettling; the floor is set fifteen degrees off horizontal. Stuart told us that for some reason, women are affected more, and children don’t seem to be bothered by it at all.

In another area, we found the psychic challenge, which states “We challenge you to find two halves of a promissory note hidden within 100 meters of this point. Follow the rules, find the two halves and $100,000 is yours!” The rules are pretty simple: you need an appointment with Stuart and need to pay a $1,000 deposit (he told us this is just to make sure people are serious). The psychic will sit opposite Stuart with a screen separating them, the challenger will ask Stuart questions for thirty minutes, and Stuart will only answer by thinking his responses. Then the challenger will have one hour to locate the two halves of the note. No major obstacles should lie in the ability to see the notes; Stuart told us that at one time, one of the notes was hidden in a toilet cistern in the building.

When the psychic challenge began, the offer was $50,000 and the notes were hidden within 5 km of the building. Later Stuart reduced the search distance to 200 meters, and finally, in 2006, he increased the reward to $100,000 and reduced the search distance to 100 meters. He told Richard Saunders on a Skeptic Zone episode that he hasn’t seen a lot of challenges over the years. One woman wanted Stuart to touch her breasts to help her locate the notes. He declined the offer.

Rounding another corner, I found another Andrus illusion, “Crazy Nuts,” which looks like two giant metal nuts (the kind that goes on a bolt). When you put your arm inside the holes of the nuts, it looks like your arm is bending when it really isn’t. Your brain wants to make it 3D because that is how it “should” work. This exhibit, like all the rest, shows us how easy it is to trick the brain.

Near our dining room I found another Jerry Andrus illusion, the “Magic Square,” which is one of my favorites.

The building and exhibits were not the only entertainment for the skeptics. Richard Saunders is a whole act by himself. He went from table to table teaching people the tricks of spoon bending. Then Brad MacClure entertained us with some music before the awards ceremony started.

The NZ skeptics have existed since 1986 and had their first conference that same year in Dunedin, New Zealand. They give out three awards, including the Denis Dutton Skeptic of the Year Award. The first winner of this award was Mark Hanna, in 2014, for creating the Society for Science Based Healthcare and battling pseudoscience via ASA and MedSafe. In 2015, the award went to Daniel Ryan, President of Making Sense of Fluoride. And in 2016, the award went to Siouxsie Wiles, a microbiologist and science communicator.

The Bravo Award has been given out since 1995 and is meant to be a “carrot” to journalists to encourage them to do good research and reporting. The 2016 award went jointly to Mark Hanna and Mark Honeychurch for providing data to The New Zealand Medical Journal detailing scientific research into Chiropractic. The last “award” is the Bent Spoon, which is given to a person or group that “should know better” ... and be “wilfully misleading with intent to profit.” According to Chair-entityship Vicki Hyde in 1996, the group saw an increase in calls from the media that begin with “‘We don’t want to get the Bent Spoon so we thought we’d better check with you guys…’ It is gratifying to note that such calls have increased over the past four years.” The Bent Spoon was first awarded in 1992 to the Consumers’ Institute for an alt-med article they wrote. For 2016, the award was given to the New Zealand Herald for publishing a variety of pseudoscience articles presented as fact without refutation.

Photo by Craig Shearer

To recap, Puzzling World is really worth a visit; I missed quite a lot because I was too busy socializing, eating, and listening to music. I really need to get back there for another visit; I missed the main maze and the Roman toilets. Apparently, that was a big deal as many people were talking about them on the bus back. One thing I did not miss was my first view of the Southern Cross in the night sky on the drive back. New Zealand is an amazing place; the people even more.

Thanks to Rob Palmer, Gene Roseberry, and Stuart Jones for proofreading.

Looking Back at the 2016 New Zealand Skeptics Conference

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December 2-4, 2016, found me and sixty other like-minded people at the New Zealand Skeptics Conference held in beautiful Queenstown on the South Island of New Zealand. The NZ Skeptics have continually been holding annual conferences since their club’s formation in 1986.  A group of friends and associates were following the beginning of CSICOP in America and decided that they would also form a group. At the formation they discussed using the American spelling of “skeptic” to even more closely associate themselves with the Americans and called themselves NZCSICOP, which eventually changed to NZ Skeptics.

The NZ Skeptics hold a yearly conference, rotating locations, each sponsored by a local group: Auckland, Dunedin, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Rotorua. Last year in 2016 was the first year they had held it in Queenstown, and it was the first time the Friends of Science and Reason (Southland Invercargill Skeptics), led by Brad MacClure, organized the event. Brad explained to me that they were interested in a mix of pure science as well as skepticism topics and wanted to use local speakers. They knew that holding a regional conference in a small city would mean lower attendance numbers, but they also knew that this would mean a more intimate relationship between speakers and audience.  And that is exactly what transpired.

Before I get to the lectures, I do need to mention the venue. I’d never been to New Zealand before and didn’t really know what to expect, other than that everyone had said how beautiful it was. When our plane landed in Queenstown the flight crew told us before we got off of the plane that we were not allowed to stop on the tarmac to take photos or videos but had to keep moving until we got to the terminal. I thought that was odd, but when we disembarked and looked at the vast snow-topped mountains and I felt my heart go WOW. As soon as I got inside the terminal I did have to take a photo. My son Stirling and I stayed in Queenstown for a few days before moving to the location of the conference, which was held in Frankton, about a fifteen-minute drive away, where the airport is located. In fact, the conference was held inside the St. John Ambulance building, a brief walk from the airport. When I was giving my lecture, it was difficult to stay focused on the audience because the view from my vantage point looking beyond the audience was amazing.  When people tell you that New Zealand is Middle Earth, they are telling you the truth. Okay, enough with the location, now on to the conference itself.

Friday afternoon and evening was the time to meet-and-greet. So much food! They had many volunteers to put this on, but Sheree McNatty went above and beyond the call of duty by handling all the cooking. Chrissie MacClure and Helen Adair were also major helpers. Mark Honeychurch (chair of NZ Skeptics) put on a ten-round game of skeptic pub trivia. It was a lot of fun and great to be on a team as there were several questions about New Zealand paranormal topics. This was my first introduction to the fact that New Zealand has a diverse skeptic world of its own. One of my biggest joys came when the theme was caricatures of famous skeptics and Eugenie Scott’s face came up and one team wrote down “Susan Gerbic.” That was quite a thrill for me.

Photo by Craig Shearer

First up on Saturday morning was Australian Loretta Marron. She is the chief executive officer of the organization Friends of Science in Medicine. She is known as the “Jelly Bean Lady” by the media after a televised test where she substituted jelly beans for magnets to compare with an unmodified magnetized mattress underlay that was purported to cure various ailments. She has found she has more success explaining medical claims to the public when she does not use jargon and technical terms. In 2014, she was awarded the Order of Australia Medal for her service to community health, and she has won the Australian Skeptic of the Year Award three times. Marron’s lecture at the conference was focused on activism. She encouraged the audience to complain when they see fraudulent health claims. She advised that they go to their government representatives or to the media and make a fuss, and to be sure to document everything.

Local veterinarian Mark Bryan spoke to us about his work with cattle medicine. He had not spoken to an audience of skeptics before and wasn’t sure what would interest the audience. So he talked about his work with VetSouth and the difficulty of finding and using statistics in research in order to best promote good veterinary practices. His service created an app called Disease and Mortality Incident Tracker—dam-iT—for vets to track mortality and diseases in cattle. He also discussed antibiotics and a pilot program called Welfarm they have been using for three years.

After morning tea, the host of The Skeptic Zone podcast, Richard Saunders, gave his talk on strange energy devices, “Too Good to be True.” He said that people who support these devices generally lack a good understanding of basic science. They hold a belief in New Age concepts, lack training, and in many cases just have a willful ignorance. They are not interested in looking into any criticism of their product. They tend to be distrustful and are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories; they also have a financial and emotional investment in the device.

My lecture on Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia was next. I tried to personalize the lecture talking about the work my team had done in preparation for the conference. Julie and Harald Berents, two GSoW members recruited at the 2015 Australian Skeptics Conference in Brisbane, were in the audience. They had worked for weeks to put together Wikipedia pages for several speakers, including Mark Bryan, Andrew Digby, and Tania Lineham. Prior to the conference, GSoW editor Greg Neilson had created a Wikipedia page for Loretta Marron, and then it was translated into Russian by GSoW editor Svetlana Bavykina.

Incidentally, Julie met an attendee at the conference who she learned needed a Wikipedia page. A few months later, Felicity Goodyear-Smith’s page was released. This is another great reason it’s so important to physically attend conferences. When I look back on these pages, I see many photographs and audio clips that were created during the conference.      

After lunch, we heard from Tania Lineham. She is a science teacher in New Zealand who won the prestigious Prime Minister’s Science Teacher Prize in 2015. Tania shared with us many of her teaching best practices by actually bringing in the equipment that smoked, bubbled, steamed, and rumbled on stage. The sixty audience members were transported back to their childhood love of science. I think we all agreed that we would have more people working in STEM fields if we had more science teachers like Lineham.

A much anticipated lecture from Andrew Digby followed. Digby is both an astronomer and an ecologist whose work with endangered New Zealand birds, mainly the Kākāpō, created plenty of excitement in the room. Harald had been working on Digby’s Wikipedia page for weeks in advance of the conference, and I had read many variations of it, which led me to read all about the Kākāpō. Listening to the lecture about how ecologists are using technology to save these flightless birds was just fascinating. Digby is working to crowdfund the genome-sequencing of every living adult Kākāpō to improve the breeding program. Fewer than 200 of them live on the three predator-free islands in New Zealand. We learned about the Takahē, another flightless and severely endangered bird with under 300 adults. Digby works as a scientist on the Takahē Recovery project. Afternoon Tea followed Digby’s talk. This, and a lack of Dr. Pepper and root beer, made it very clear I was not in California anymore!

Scott Kennedy was the perfect conclusion at the end of a long day of terrific lectures. He spoke to us about music—actually the evolution of popular music. It was really fascinating to see how musicians build on the work of other musicians, and how with a change of stage presence and attitude they appeared to create a brand-new genre.

The evening was not over. We boarded a hired bus for a winding but beautiful trip to Puzzling World in Wanaka, New Zealand. It was quite a ride, at least forty-five minutes, but founder Stuart Landsborough is a member of the NZ Skeptics, so we were given a private VIP visit to the popular attraction. More about Puzzling World will feature in a later Skeptical Inquirer online special article.

Day 3 for me began with a walk from my hotel to the conference by myself during which I got so badly lost that I almost missed my own morning lecture. Yep, I was due to speak again. This time I spoke about my work with psychics who I un-affectionately call “grief vampires.” I talked about past sting operations and how cold and hot readings seem to work. When I explained how many Wikipedia page views these psychics get, and how articles written by skeptics can be used to support facts on these Wikipedia pages, I looked out at the audience and saw virtual light bulbs appear over many of their heads. I think that a lot of people didn’t realize that psychics are still very popular and that there are many different avenues open to skeptics to counter their claims of communicating with the dead.

Mark Hanna spoke to us about his work submitting complaints to the regulatory boards of New Zealand about alternative healthcare products and practices. He is known as a consumer advocate and science communicator. Hanna often uses Google Alerts and Freedom of Information legislation to keep informed. In 2014, Hanna complained about Amber Teething Necklaces to the Advertising Standards Authority, and sixteen complaints were upheld. He managed to get an article that supported colloidal silver as a medical supplement removed from the Stuff.co.nz website after he emailed them with his concerns about its efficacy. And he pulled data about acupuncture from the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) and New Zealand Ministry of Health to discover that the ACC is fully aware that they are spending significant amounts of money on acupuncture that they themselves view as ineffective.

Photo by Craig Shearer

While all the lectures were excellent, and I was now fatigued from the whole conference experience, I think I learned the most from Catherine Low’s lecture on her work with the Students for High-Impact Charity. It was the last lecture of the conference, and it challenged beliefs that I’ve long held with very little thought. She explained why some charities are not making good use of your money. I’ve heard that before, but she went beyond that and explained how you can make a bigger impact on society with a smaller donation. You just have to get past your pre-conceived beliefs. One really great example she gave was charity for the blind. Catherine explained that one seeing-eye dog given to one person costs about $5,000 dollars. Getting that dog is a life-changing experience for that person and it feels really good to see them around you. But there are medical procedures that can be done for $25 in Africa that will allow people to see again. This treatment is so inexpensive that in Western countries we think nothing of it. The problem is that the average person donating money will probably never see the results. It does not feel the same knowing you have given sight to someone on the other side of the world; maybe you don’t feel like the money is actually going to the charity but instead to governments as bribes and embezzlement.  There was a lot crammed into her talk that I can’t get into in this little article, but really it made me rethink many things that I didn’t know were problems. 

We ended the conference with a panel discussion by the speakers. The question was, “With twenty minutes a week, what can you do to save the world?” The answers were quite amazing.

I was left so impressed with the quality of the speakers and the organization that I can’t fit it all here. I’ve been to many skeptic conferences over the past fifteen years or so, each one with its own flavor and unique style. This one was intimate and friendly, and even though I’m writing this article seven months after attending, I’m still feeling that I got some great information from it, far more information than I would have learned by sitting at home watching the YouTube videos as they uploaded. The memories are terrific. I was able to take some excellent photos, which I’ve printed and look at every day. I shot videos and collected audio. But more important to me were the people I met, many of whom I still interact with on Facebook. I can’t wait until they ask me back so I can see them again. Yes, I know conferences can be expensive; it’s difficult taking time off from work, and who is going to water the plants? And what about the dog? You might not be able to go to New Zealand, but there are conferences happening all over the world, maybe one nearby. You just need to find a way to make it happen. Go! I promise you that you won’t regret it. 

For more information about the NZ skeptics – check them out here at their website http://skeptics.nz/

On Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NZ_Skeptics

And subscribe to the NZ skeptics YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/user/NZSkepticsSociety

Also here is the playlist to the videos I created from the conference. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7VAuaQDhPTWN635v6Z01DdMwYFpbAxWb

Thank you GSoW editors Ryan Harding, Stuart Jones, and Gene Roseberry for turning my words into something more readable.

Moving Science’s Statistical Goal Posts

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In 1989, Ralph Rosnow and Robert Rosenthal, two well-respected experts on statistical methods in psychology, wrote the following memorable line: “We want to underscore that, surely, God loves the .06 nearly as much as the .05” (p. 1277).

For researchers in psychology—as well as in the biological and social sciences—this was an amusing statement because .05 is the Holy Grail of statistical significance. It may seem unusual to use religious language when writing about scientific methods, but the metaphor is fitting because, for almost as long as scientists have used statistical methods, achieving a probability of .05 or less (e.g., .04, .027, .004) meant publication, academic success, and another step toward the financial security of tenure. But .06 or even .055 meant nothing. No publication and no progress toward a comfortable retirement.

Rosnow and Rosenthal were arguing that scientists had been overly concerned with a single, arbitrary cut-off score, p < .05, but today their plea sounds a bit antique. In the latest response to the “reproducibility crisis” in psychology (see my December 2015 online column, “Has Science a Problem?”) a group of seventy-two accomplished statisticians, biologists, and social scientists have signed a statement proposing that the criterion be changed from .05 to .005. This may seem like a nerdy technical issue, but the proposed change has profound implications for the progress of science and has ignited a vigorous controversy in the field. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s step back and figure out what this is all about.

The Reverse Logic of Statistical Significance

The idea came from the British biologist and statistician Ronald Fisher, a man Richard Dawkins has called “the greatest biologist since Darwin” (The Edge 2011). Fisher invented many statistical techniques—including the analysis of variance (ANOVA)—and, ever since learning how to use Fisher’s methods, has been the bane of graduate students in biology, psychology, and many other disciplines.

Fisher recognized that you cannot affirm the consequent. Scientists are commonly in the position of wanting to prove that a variable they are interested in causes something to happen. For example, imagine a chemist has identified Compound X, which she believes will promote hair growth in balding humans. She creates a Compound X lotion and a placebo lotion and conducts an experiment on balding volunteers. Lo and behold, the people in her Compound X group grow more hair than those in the placebo group. If her experiment was otherwise well designed and conducted, can she safely conclude Compound X grows hair? Of course not. It might just have been a lucky test, and furthermore no number of positive tests can prove the rule.

Ronald Fisher (1890-1962) Source: Wikimedia

Understanding this, Fisher proposed to turn the question around, creating a straw person that could be knocked over with statistics. What if we assume the opposite: Compound X has no effect at all? This idea is what Fisher called the “null hypothesis.” The hypothesis of nothing going on. No effect. Then, he reasoned, we can determine the probability of our experimental findings happening merely by chance. This is where ANOVA and other statistical methods come in. Fisher suggested that statistical tests could be used to estimate the kinds of outcomes that would be expected due to random variations in the data. If the result obtained in an experiment was very unlikely to occur by chance, then the researcher would be justified in rejecting the null hypothesis of no effect. It would be fairly safe to say something real was going on. For example, if our chemist’s statistical analysis found probability of getting the amount of hair growth she saw in the Compound X group to be .04—meaning that by chance alone we could expect the same result in only 4 of 100 similarly run experiments—then it would be reasonable for her to conclude Compound X really worked.

So was born the Null Hypothesis Significance Test (NHST), and before long it was the law of the land. Fisher proposed a probability (p-value) of .05, and it came to pass that researchers in a variety of fields could not expect to get their articles published unless they performed the appropriate statistical tests and found that p was < .05 (a probability of the null hypothesis being true in less than 5 percent of cases). Point zero five became the accepted knife edge of success: p < .055 meant your results were junk, and p < .048 meant you could pop the champagne. P < .05 was not a magical number; it just became the accepted convention—a convention that Rosnow and Rosenthal, as well as others (e.g., Cohen, 1990) have criticized to no avail. It remains a fossilized criterion for separating the wheat from the chaff. But perhaps, not for long.

A histogram of iris sepal widths showing a roughly bell-shaped distribution. Based on a dataset maintained by Ronald Fisher. (Source: Wikimedia)

Strengthening Scientific Evidence

Statistics is one of those fields that has been plagued by a number of dustups over the years, but this latest controversy over p-values is inspired by the reproducibility crisis, the discovery that many classic experiments—primarily in social and cognitive psychology—could not be reproduced when attempted again. The resulting loss of confidence in research findings has spawned a number of reforms, most notably the Open Science movement, about which I wrote in my December 2016 online column, “The Parable of the Power Pose and How to Reverse It.” The open science approach makes research a much more public and collaborative enterprise and makes the common practice of “p-hacking”—fiddling with your data until something significant pops out—much more difficult.

Then, in July of 2017, seventy-two scientists (Benjamin, et al. 2017) wrote the proposal to simply make the criterion for significance more difficult by moving the cut-off from 5 out of 100 to 5 out of 1000 (p < .005). This would greatly help one of the issues the authors presume to be a cause of the reproducibility problem: Type I error. When we say something is statistically significant, we are simply saying that it is unlikely the observed effect is due to chance. But it’s not impossible. By definition the choice of the .05 significance level means that we are willing to live with a 5 percent chance of an error—saying there is an effect when actually our results were caused by normal random variation. This is a kind of false positive result. For example, if Compound X is useless, our choice of the .05 criterion means that in five tests out of hundred, we would conclude something was happening when nothing was. And when, as is most often the case, we conduct just a single test, how do we know whether ours is one of the five random cases that just happened to make Compound X look like it works? Based on a single test, we really can’t say.

Moving the statistical criterion to .005 would make the chances of a Type I error much lower, which means that the findings that reach publication would be more trustworthy and more likely reproducible. This is a worthy goal, and there is no easier fix than simply requiring a stronger test. But such a change would not be without costs. When you reduce the chances of a Type I error, you increase the chances of a different kind of error with the clever name of Type II. Type II errors are caused when the effect you are studying is real but your test fails to show it. Compound X really can grow hair, but by chance, your test came up nonsignificant: p > .05. A kind of false negative result. The change to .005 proposed by the gang of seventy-two would make false negatives more common, and given the often enormous time and cost involved in modern research, it would mean that important results that would contribute to our knowledge base are likely to die on the vine. Ultimately the progress of science would be slowed.

Perhaps anticipating this objection, the seventy-two authors propose that results falling between the traditional .05 and the new .005 might still be published as “suggestive” rather than statistically significant. Furthermore, the < .005 criteria would only be applied to tests of new phenomena, and replications of previously published studies could remain at .05. But it is clear the change would still have a powerful impact. As someone on one of my Internet discussion groups suggested, this change might make many psychology journals much thinner than they are now. I haven’t checked, but I am fairly certain several of my own published studies would have to be demoted to the “suggestive” category.

The Response

The proposal by the seventy-two researchers is scheduled to appear in a future issue of the journal Nature Human Behavior, but the prepublication copy posted online has already attracted much publicity and considerable comment from the scientific community. Many researchers have welcomed the .005 suggestion, which has been offered by others in the past (Resnick 2017), but there has also been some pushback. Psychologist Daniel Lakens is organizing a group rebuttal. According to an article in Vox, one of Laken’s primary objections is that such a technique will slow the progress of science. It may strengthen the published research literature at the cost of discouraging graduate students and other investigators who have limited resources.

Typically, the most effective way to increase the power of a statistical test and the likelihood of reaching a stringent significance level, such as < .005, is to increase the number of participants in your study. Although the Internet provides new opportunities for collecting large amounts of survey data, consider the difficulties of developmental psychologists who study infant behavior in the laboratory. As important as this work is, it might end up being limited to a few well-funded centers. Psychologist Timothy Bates, writing in Medium, makes the more general argument that a cost-benefit analysis of the switch to .005 comes up short. Research will become much more expensive without, in his view, yielding equal benefit (Bates 2017).

Finally, there is the question of placing too much emphasis on one issue. John Ioannidis is a Stanford University statistician and health researcher whose 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings are False” is a classic document of the reproducibility movement. He is also one of the seventy-two signers of the .005 proposal. But Ioannidis admits that statistical significance is not the only way to judge a study: “statistical significance [alone] doesn’t convey much about the meaning, the importance, the clinical value, utility [of research]” (quoted in Resnick 2017). Even if Compound X produced a significant increase in hair growth (p < .005), the hair growth in question might not be noticeable enough to make the treatment worth using. Under the proposed, more stringent statistical criteria, researchers might concentrate on getting results that are likely to get them over the statistical goal line and pass up more meaningful topics.

Will It Happen?

So how likely is it that the goal posts will get moved and journals will begin to require a p < .005 level of significance? I suspect the probability is low. Not five chances out of a thousand, but less than 50:50. There are good reasons for making this correction, particularly at this time when confidence in social science research is at a low point. But, for a couple of reasons, I don’t think it will happen.

First, because this controversy is relatively new, the objectors are still developing their responses. As the conversation gets going, I suspect we will hear more concerns about Type II errors—real phenomena that will be missed because they fail to meet the p < .005 criterion—and about discouraging young investigators from going into research. No one is in favor of that.

But I suspect one of the biggest sources of resistance will be based in economics rather than in arcane technical and professional issues. It turns out that academic publishing is enormously profitable—a $19 billion worldwide business that, according to The Guardian, is far more profitable than either the film or music industries (Buranyi 2017). A large portion of this success comes from a unique business model in which the product being sold—academic scholarship—is obtained essentially for free. Research that often costs millions of dollars in research grants and salaries to produce is handed to publishers such as Elsevier or Springer for nothing. Even peer reviews of submitted manuscripts are done by researchers who donate their time for free.

Academic publishing is a kind of crazy incestuous feedback loop. Researchers must get their work published in high quality journals if they wish to advance their careers, and scholars and university libraries must pay exorbitant subscription costs to gain access to the same journals. The current system is being threatened by Sci-Hub, a pirated archive of scientific publications, and by a growing number of scholars who are posting prepublication versions of their work online (Rathi 2017). Eventually, all scientific publishing may be entirely free and open, but until that day, the publishing industry will continue to be hungry for material. As a result, the prospect of much less content and thinner journals will not be a welcome thought, and I suspect this attitude will be communicated down the line to editors who must choose whether to adopt the new standard or not. The publishing gods love .05 much more than .005.



References

  1. Bates, Timothy. 2017. "Changing the default p-value threshold for statistical significance ought not be done, and is the the least of our problems" Medium. July 23. Accessed August 13, 2017. Available online at https://medium.com/@timothycbates/changing-the-default-p-value-threshold-for-statistical-significance-ought-not-be-done-in-isolation-3a7ab357b5c1.
  2. Benjamin, Daniel J, James Berger, Magnus Johannesson, Brian A Nosek, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Richard Berk, Kenneth Bollen, et al. 2017. “Redefine Statistical Significance”. PsyArXiv. July 22. Available online at osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/mky9j
  3. Buranyi, Stephen. 2017 "Is the staggeringly profitable business of scientific publishing bad for science?" The Guardian. June 27. Accessed August 14, 2017. Available online at https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-scientific-publishing-bad-for-science.
  4. Cohen, Jacob. 1990. "Things I have learned (so far)." American psychologist 45, no. 12:1304.
  5. The Edge. 2011. “Who is the greatest biologist of all time?” Edge.org. March 11. Accessed August 13, 2017. Available online at https://www.edge.org/conversation/who-is-the-greatest-biologist-of-all-time.
  6. Ioannidis, John PA. 2005. "Why most published research findings are false." PLoS medicine 2, no. 8: e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124.
  7. Rathi, Akshat. 2017. "Soon, nobody will read academic journals illegally - the studies worth reading will be free." Quartz. August 09. Accessed August 14, 2017. Available online at https://qz.com/1049870/half-the-time-unpaywall-users-search-for-articles-that-are-legally-free-to-access/.
  8. Resnick, Brian. 2017. "What a nerdy debate about p-values shows about science - and how to fix it." Vox. July 31. Accessed August 13, 2017. Available online at https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/7/31/16021654/p-values-statistical-significance-redefine-0005.
  9. Rosnow, Ralph L., and Robert Rosenthal. 1989. "Statistical procedures and the justification of knowledge in psychological science." American Psychologist 44, no. 10: 1276.
  10. Vyse, Stuart. 2016. "The Parable of the Power Pose and How to Reverse It." CSI. December 15. Accessed August 13, 2017. Available online at http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/the_parable_of_the_power_pose
    _and_how_to_reverse_it
    .
  11. Vyse, Stuart. 2015. "Has Science a Problem?" CSI. June 18. Accessed August 13, 2017. Available online at http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/has_science_a_problem.

The Incorrigible Dr. Oz

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Dr. Mehmet Oz, the cardiothoracic surgeon who became a media star thanks to Oprah, has been widely criticized by physicians and others for giving non-scientific medical advice. The James Randi Educational Foundation dishonored him with three Pigasus awards, more than any other recipient. A study in the British Medical Journal found that evidence only supported 46 percent of his recommendations, contradicted 15 percent, and wasn’t available for 39 percent. In 2015, a group of doctors wrote a letter to Columbia University calling for his removal from its faculty. They accused Oz of “an egregious lack of integrity by promoting quack treatments and cures in the interest of personal financial gain.”

Oz has promoted one new “miracle” weight loss product after another on his TV show. Three years ago, he was grilled by Sen. Claire McCaskill during a congressional hearing:

“The scientific community is almost monolithic against you in terms of the efficacy of the three products you called ‘miracles,’” said McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat. She said she was discouraged by the “false hope” his rhetoric gives viewers and questioned his role “intentional or not, in perpetuating these scams.” 

“I don't get why you need to say this stuff when you know it's not true. When you have this amazing megaphone, why would you cheapen your show? ... With power comes a great deal of responsibility.”

He admitted he used “flowery language” and promised to tone down his language in the future. He said:

“In addition to exercising an abundance of caution in discussing promising research and products in the future, I look forward to working with all those present today in finding a way to deal with the problems of weight loss scams.”

The Grapefruit Detox Diet

Well, that “abundance of caution” didn’t last very long. I can’t stand to watch his show, but I am periodically alerted to his latest shenanigans when people complain about him. On a recent episode, he promoted the grapefruit detox diet for weight loss, interviewing Kellyann Petrucci, who bills herself as a board-certified naturopathic physician and a certified nutrition consultant.

In the first place, the very idea of “detox” is nonsense. It’s a popular alternative medicine buzzword used to sell everything from detox diets and herbal detox remedies to saunas and detox foot baths. They never specify exactly which toxins are removed or how much; they can’t, because none of the products actually remove any toxins. Even if they did somehow work to some small extent, we don’t need any “detoxifying” beyond what our liver and kidneys do for us every day. There’s not a shred of evidence that any of those advertised “detox” methods do anything to improve health.

The Plan

Lose weight in just seven days: just eat half a grapefruit with every meal.

For breakfast, eat it with four ounces of protein; this will help you absorb the grapefruit and curb midmorning cravings. For lunch, eat with a healthy fat like avocado, and unlimited vegetables. For dinner, eat with a cup of ancient grains and vegetables, along with four ounces of protein.

“You can lose anywhere from half a pound, to a pound a day, less bloat…and it even boosts your immune system with all of the Vitamin C!”

This plan probably will help you lose weight; not because of the grapefruit but because of the limited calorie intake.

Questionable Claims

Petrucci makes specific claims for grapefruit that don’t stand up to scrutiny.

  • A medium-sized grapefruit has 128% of the recommended daily intake of vitamin C., which will support your immune system and potentially even fight off the common cold and other illnesses. (There’s no evidence that amounts of vitamin C greater than the RDI provide any health benefits.)
  • Citrus scents are invigorating and stress reducing. Smelling the scent will make you more calm, alert, and happy. “Studies have found that merely the smell of grapefruit can boost your mood and stop down emotional eating.” (No, they haven’t. There was only one Japanese study in rats that found that smelling grapefruit oil reduced their appetite.)
  • Ancient grains are very calming and soothing, so eating them for dinner makes you sleep better. (I couldn’t find any supporting evidence for that claim.)
  • High fiber content keeps you satisfied and helps balance blood sugar levels. (But the fiber content of grapefruit is low compared to many other foods. A whole grapefruit contains only 2.8 grams of fiber; a cup of navy beans contains 19 grams; a cup of raspberries, 8 grams; a cup of spaghetti, 6 grams; a cup of frozen green peas, 14 grams; a pear, 6 grams.)
  • Grapefruit is made up almost entirely of water, so it will hydrate you. (Water is made up entirely of water and will hydrate you even better. And you probably don’t need extra hydration beyond what you normally get in your diet.)

And finally, “Grapefruit contains high levels of NOOTKATONE, which in animal studies has been shown to stimulate your metabolism and ramp up weight loss.”

I wanted to see those studies. I searched for studies of nootkatone on PubMed and got only a single hit: a study of the toxicity and behavioral effects of nootkatone on the Formosan subterranean termite. Their feeding activity was significantly reduced. (Nice if you’re a termite trying to lose weight, but not relevant for humans.)

I tried again, searching PubMed for grapefruit and weight loss. There were some more mouse studies, but findings in mice may not apply to humans. There were a couple of human studies:

  • One study found that “consumption of grapefruit daily for 6 weeks does not significantly decrease body weight, lipids, or blood pressure as compared with the control condition.”
  • Another study tested the effect of consuming grapefruit, grapefruit juice, or water before meals on a calorie-restricted diet. Pre-loading with plain water worked as well or better than grapefruit! (And the grapefruit diet recommends eating it with meals, not before meals.)

And of course there has never been a single study of the specific grapefruit detox diet recommended by Petrucci, so we have no way of knowing if it is effective or how it compares to other weight loss diets.

For what it’s worth, an Internet search revealed that nootkatone is being tested as an insect repellent.

Combining Grapefruit with Medications Can Be Dangerous

Grapefruit contains a compound that inhibits the CYP3A4 enzyme that is responsible for metabolizing many drugs. When the enzyme levels drop, blood levels of those drugs become elevated. More than eighty-five pharmaceutical drugs are known or predicted to interact with grapefruit. Eating just one grapefruit is enough to lead to drug toxicity. People who want to try the grapefruit diet should consult their physicians. There is a generic disclaimer buried in Oz’s website saying that people should consult their doctors before adopting any of Oz’s recommendations, but it seems to me that it is negligent not to emphasize the possibility of grapefruit/drug interactions in any discussion of the grapefruit diet.

The Bottom Line

The grapefruit detox diet is just another in a long line of fad diets. It won’t “detox” you. It may help you lose weight, but so would any other low-calorie diet, especially one that emphasizes fiber, vegetables, and small amounts of protein like this one does. And weight loss requires a long-term change in eating habits, not just a one-week effort. Drinking a glass of water before meals may do more for weight loss than grapefruit. Eating grapefruit at every meal could get boring, and it could interact dangerously with your prescription medications.

If you want health advice you can trust, stay away from the land of Oz. Oz consistently misrepresents the science and hypes the benefits far beyond the evidence. He is a showman, an entertainer, not a credible source of science-based information. As a highly trained medical doctor, he should know better; he has learned nothing from his critics. He is incorrigible.

Robert Brotherton habla sobre las teorías conspirativas: “solo la punta del iceberg”

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Artículo traducido por Alejandro Borgo, Director del CFI/Argentina.




Rob Brotherton es autor y profesor en el Barnard College, ciudad de Nueva York, EE.UU. Tiene un doctorado proveniente de la Goldsmiths University of London; su tesis se refería a la psicología de las teorías conspirativas. Será orador en la CSICon el 28 de octubre próximo. Para más información: https://conspiracypsychology.com/


Susan Gerbic: Rob, encantada de conocerte. Veo que eres entrevistado por muchos medios, desde MSNBC a Breitbart. Las teorías conspirativas parecen ser uno de los temas más candentes en la actualidad. Tu libro “Suspicious Minds – Why we Believe Conspiracy Theories” (Mentes sospechosas: por qué creemos en las teorías conspirativas)  https://conspiracypsychology.com/2015/11/02/suspicious-minds-why-we-believe-conspiracy-theorieses bien oportuno. Cuando lo escribiste, no tenías idea de que el presidente de los Estados Unidos estaría de acuerdo con esta  retórica. En qué salvaje y loco mundo nos encontramos ahora mismo.

Rob Brotherton: Exacto. Lo de Breitbart todavía me entusiasma. He escrito sobre la historia de los Illuminati, cómo se conectó con el hip hop para the Daily Beast, y Breitbart subió un artículo malinterpretando de lo que escribí– implicando básicamente que yo revelé que Kayne West era parte de los Illuminati. Breitbart publica historias distorsionadas, ¿quién sabe?

Gerbic: ¿Quieres decir que Kayne West no forma parte de los Illuminati? ¿Puedes contarle a los lectores un poco más acerca de ti? ¿Por qué las teorías conspirativas son tu área?

Brotherton: Me interesé por las teorías conspirativas al principio de mi carrera como psicólogo cuando todavía no me había graduado. Por ese entonces, estaba involucrándome en el movimiento escéptico, leyendo libros como Flim Flam, The Demon Haunted World, y ello me llevó a centrar mi atención en las excentricidades de la psicología -recuerdos falsos, creencias mágicas y otras cosas por el estilo. Luego un miembro de la Facultad sugirió llevar a cabo un proyecto sobre las teorías conspirativas. En ese momento, el tema había sido ignorado por los psicólogos, presuntamente porque mucha gente pensaba que era una curiosidad trivial en la cual no había que gastar mucho tiempo. Pero me involucré inmediatamente. Para mí, entender las teorías conspirativas es importante, primero porque nos ayuda a comprender la psicología de las creencias en general y segundo, porque las teorías conspirativas pueden influir en la gente. El los últimos años esto se transformó en algo más obvio, y más y más psicólogos ahora investigan las teorías conspirativas.

Gerbic: Es posible que la gente piense que la creencia en teorías conspirativas no causa ningún daño. Pienso ahora en el alunizaje y en otras. Obviamente, no son exactamente inofensivas porque alimentan la desconfianza de la sociedad. Pero parece que son inofensivas comparadas con la teoría de Sandy Hook (uno de los padres, Lenny Pozner, creía en las teorías conspirativas hasta que su hijo se transformó en una víctima; incluso él estaba escuchando a Alex Jones durante la mañana en que dejó a su hijo en Sandy Hook, la masacre en una escuela primaria que dejó 28 muertos), y Timothy McVeigh, quien creía que el gobierno había instigado el asedio en Waco. Su desconfianza respecto del gobierno lo llevó a volar el edificio del FBI en Oklahoma.

Brotherton: Sí, hay dos razones para preocuparse. Hay raras pero alarmantes instancias en las que los individuos cometen actos extremos, en parte gracias a su creencia en una conspiración. Ahí lo tenemos a McVeigh, como lo has mencionado, o a Edgar Welch, el tipo que fue a investigar la conspiración “Pizzagate”, con un rifle automático, aunque por suerte no hirió a nadie. Y luego están las amplias consecuencias, aunque menos tangibles, como elegir no vacunar a tus hijos, llevar acciones contra el cambio climático, participar en campañas políticas, o ser generalmente desconfiado. En tanto y en cuanto avanza la investigación psicológica, los estudios hallan que la exposición a las teorías conspirativas puede engendrar alienación. Pero así van las cosas en la otra dirección también -que las teorías conspirativas encuentran eco en la gente que está más alienada. Así que es como un círculo vicioso donde la alienación promueve el conspiracionismo, lo cual refuerza la alienación, lo cual promueve el conspiracionismo, y así sucesivamente.


This article was originally available in English.
Click here to read it.


Gerbic: Hace rato que las teorías conspirativas pululan por ahí. Recuerdo haber leído que había gente que no creía que Lincoln había sido asesinado por John Wilkes Booth. Yo creía ingenuamente en que la gente que tuviera acceso a mejor información sería menos proclive a creer en las teorías conspirativas. ¿Hay alguna esperanza para la sociedad? ¿Es algo con lo cual debemos enfrentarnos y aprender a manejarlo?

Brotherton: Realmente, creo que tienes razón. El acceso de información gracias a Internet ha sido útil en cuanto a la desmitificación de teorías conspirativas. Pero también ha ayudado a que éstas se extiendan. La mejor información de que disponemos proviene de un estudio de  Joe Uscinski y Joseph Parent, quienes buscaron referencias sobre teorías conspirativas en cartas publicadas en un par de periódicos nacionales durante más de un siglo. Hallaron que las teorías conspirativas poseen gran aceptación. La proporción de gente que cree en ellas y la que no cree, no cambia mucho con el tiempo, y ambos lados usan cualquier tecnología disponible para consumir y promover lo que quieren creer.

Gerbic: Vas a estar hablando en CSICon en Las Vegas este año. ¿Puedes darnos algún adelanto?

Brotherton: La charla tratará sobre las más destacadas teorías conspirativas de la última década, desde un punto de vista psicológico. Voy a centrarme en cómo algunos sesgos y atajos que nuestros cerebros utilizan para darles sentido, hacen que estas teorías parezcan atractivas.

Gerbic: En 2011, fuiste orador en una conferencia en Londres titulada “El día de las teorías conspirativas” y luego, en 2013 en la “Nine Worlds GeekFest”. ¿Qué dirías si alguien dice que hablás para la gente que no esta convencida?

Brotherton: Mi punto de vista sobre las teorías conspirativas es bastante diferente de las típicas respuestas de los escépticos que desafían a los teóricos sobre el tema. Mis intenciones secretas -no le digas a nadie- constan en preguntarle a los escépticos como a los teóricos de la conspiración. El estereotipo de los que creen en barbaridades es incorrecto, y el hecho de descartar a los teóricos de la conspiración que están equivocados evade una realidad psicológica importante. Todos somos potenciales teóricos de la conspiración, porque así es como funciona nuestra mente. Y por supuesto, a veces la gente conspira. El tema central es calibrar tu escepticismo apropiadamente, lo cual requiere un discernimiento no solo cuando la gente está  en desacuerdo se equivoca, sino cuando tú puedes estar equivocado también.

Gerbic: Bien, ahora quisiera saber cuál es tu teoría conspirativa preferida.

Brotherton: me encanta la idea de que los Illuminati nos están manipulando a través de la ciltura pop —por si alguien está interesado ¡tengo una charla entera sobre referencias a los Illuminati en el hip hop! Pero mi favorita se refiere a David Icke, el teórico conspiracionista británico que mete absolutamente todo en una gran narrativa de la conspiración, y lo repito: absolutamente todo.

Estuve un par de charlas suyas, y duraban todo el día, once o doce horas. Explica cómo los anillos de Saturno forman un transmisor de radio y la luna en un amplificador que lanza rayos hacia la Tierra para controlar la mente de forma que los malvados Archons —sus famosos lagartos, viajeros espaciales interdimensionales— pueden mantenernos atrapados en su realidad holográfica. David Icke dice que es verdad, pero no estoy convencido de ello.

Gerbic: ¿Cuáles son tus próximos planes? Parece que hay tanto trabajo que hacer para educar a la gente sobre las teorías conspirativas que resulta abrumador.

Brotherton: Es cierto. Estoy investigando las teorías conspirativas desde ángulos diferentes. Mi libro fue realmente el principio de una conversación, no el final. Creo que ya era hora de recolectar mis primeros hallazgos y enviar el mensaje de que es algo interesante e importante, digno de estudiar. Pero la investigación que se ha hecho hasta ahora es solo la punta del iceberg. Todavíq queda mucho trabajo por hacer.

Gerbic: Gente, por favor únanse y concurran este año al evento CSIcon en el Hotel y Casino Excalibur, del 26 al 30 de octubre. Vean nuestra página en Facebook para estar actualizados sobre las actividades que se llevarán a cabo. No se trata solo de asistir a nuestras conferencias sino de encontrarnos e interactuar compartiendo nuestros intereses comunes.

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